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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.277,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":9,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":19,"games_left":9,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":34,"games_left":9,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":23,"gap_to_europe":-14},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Gallen 1879 lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"FC St. Gallen 1879","reverse_score":"4-1","reverse_date":1789578000},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Enrico Maassen has 32 matches in charge at FC St. Gallen 1879, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Enrico Maassen","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":217,"ppm":1.62,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mattia Croci-Torti has 34 matches in charge at FC Lugano, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Mattia Croci-Torti","matches_in_charge":34,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":2.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Gallen 1879 come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.833333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.032,"defence":0.086,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.094,"defence":0.237,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.5,"shots":18.5,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.328,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.55},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.4,"shots":16.7,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.294,"finishing_vs_xg":1.16},"possession_gap":-7},"strength":0.278,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Gallen 1879 have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.55,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Lugano have scored 14 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"113 yellow cards in this referee's last 25 games, where 117 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 25 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":25,"yellows_per_match":4.52,"reds_per_match":0.04,"league_yellows_per_match":4.68,"league_reds_per_match":0.25,"yellow_ratio":0.97,"red_ratio":0.16,"sample":25,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 157 km for FC Lugano.","evidence":{"travel_km":157},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.2,"temperature_c":7,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.09681369790298541},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The table toppers march in with six straight wins behind them, but their finishing is running remarkably hot by scoring 30 goals from chances worth about 16. St. Gallen happily cede possession, making superior chances in four of five matches despite holding the ball less, while suffering harsh punishment after conceding 17 goals from roughly 12. Lugano chase victory without their top scorer netting seven alongside two assists, missing his goals and creative spark through a layoff lasting until November 16. St. Gallen also miss attacking thrust and midfield control through three sidelined names. Lethal finishing decides the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7357,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":602335,"event_date":"2026-11-08T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":248,"home_team":"FC St. Gallen 1879","away_team_id":254,"away_team":"FC Lugano","league_id":15,"league_name":"Super League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":40.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4027,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794135627,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2d8548","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Sitterstadion","city":"St. Gallen","capacity":19456},"pulled":[],"published":[]}