{"id":602014,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789826400,"home":"GD Vitória Sernache","away":"Varzim SC","home_id":4831,"away_id":3648,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,1],"colors":{"home":"#ecd017","away":"#bf2436"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.34,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.863,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Both sides are modelled to score: 1.26 against 2.40, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. Pulling the same way, recent results for GD Vitória Sernache were collected under someone else's instructions, which is the whole reason to discount them. Add it up and more than 1.5 goals in it is what this points to. That puts it at 86%, priced 1.34 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.836836836836837,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.20. Varzim SC project to score 1.9 times what GD Vitória Sernache manage. Games that one-sided on paper usually are. Pulling the same way, GD Vitória Sernache are early enough into a new regime that recent form describes a different team. That is the case, and it ends at Varzim SC avoiding defeat. Call it 84%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"odds":1.364,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.802184466019418,"narrative":"Away draw-no-bet at 1.36. Varzim SC project to score 1.9 times what GD Vitória Sernache manage. Games that one-sided on paper usually are. In the same direction, a new manager at GD Vitória Sernache 5 matches ago means the market is still pricing the old side. Put together, the expectation is Varzim SC coming out on top if there is a winner. 80% on our numbers, 1.36 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}}]}