{"id":602011,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789837200,"home":"CD Mafra","away":"FC Tirsense","home_id":3512,"away_id":4970,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,1],"colors":{"home":"#159d4a","away":"#333c4d"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.29,"bookmaker":"betfair","model_prob":0.83,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Both sides are modelled to score: 1.47 against 1.86, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. And FC Tirsense are early enough into a new regime that recent form describes a different team. Add it up and more than 1.5 goals in it is what this points to. We make it 83% at 1.29. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.829,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.13. CD Mafra are appreciably the stronger side on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.88, and the market has not argued with it. That is the case, and it ends at CD Mafra avoiding defeat. Call it 83%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}}]}