{"id":602010,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789909200,"home":"CD Cinfães","away":"Leixões SC","home_id":5002,"away_id":3334,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[0,4],"colors":{"home":"#4a2db0","away":"#935d25"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"odds":1.24,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.8825,"narrative":"Away draw-no-bet at 1.24. Leixões SC are marginally the stronger side on expected goals, 1.38 to 1.58, and the market has not argued with it. Everything above points the same way: Leixões SC coming out on top if there is a winner. 88% on our numbers, 1.24 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.873,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.10. Leixões SC are not favoured here — 1.40 to 1.54 on expected goals — so what makes this a call is the draw counting, not a win being likely. Take the lot together and Leixões SC avoiding defeat is the read. That puts it at 87%, priced 1.10 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.167,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.800800800800801,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.17. 1.51 expected for CD Cinfães, 1.41 for Leixões SC — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. Everything above points the same way: a winner rather than a draw. 80% likely, returning 17p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}