{"id":602009,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789844400,"home":"SC Beira-Mar","away":"C.F. Os Belenenses","home_id":7069,"away_id":4663,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[0,2],"colors":{"home":"#ecd613","away":"#1a4370"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.286,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.851,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. 1.29 and 2.25 makes 3.54 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. Alongside it, a new manager at SC Beira-Mar 5 matches ago means the market is still pricing the old side. Which is why we land on more than 1.5 goals in it. That puts it at 85%, priced 1.29 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.167,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.827,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.17. For this to go wrong, SC Beira-Mar have to beat an expected 1.27 goals by some distance — which is the risk, stated plainly. Take the lot together and C.F. Os Belenenses avoiding defeat is the read. 83% on our numbers, 1.17 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}