{"id":602006,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789912800,"home":"Guarda FC","away":"Chaves","home_id":8224,"away_id":2350,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,3],"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#134287"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.167,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.808808808808809,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.17. 1.72 expected for Guarda FC, 1.39 for Chaves — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. Alongside it, recent results for Guarda FC were collected under someone else's instructions, which is the whole reason to discount them. That is the case, and it ends at a winner rather than a draw. That puts it at 81%, priced 1.17 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.182,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.805,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. The model reads this as a 3.12-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. Alongside it, the manager is 5 games into the job at Guarda FC, inside the window where a change of voice still lifts output. Take the lot together and more than 1.5 goals in it is the read. 81% likely, returning 18p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}