{"id":602004,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789912800,"home":"SU Sintrense","away":"AVS - Futebol SAD","home_id":3899,"away_id":26,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[0,2],"colors":{"home":"#18367f","away":"#aa222a"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":2.375,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.876876876876877,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 2.38. The model has SU Sintrense at 2.52 goals here against AVS - Futebol SAD's 1.09 — that gap is the whole case. Which is why we land on SU Sintrense avoiding defeat. 88% on our numbers, 2.38 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Wrong, and not close enough to call it unlucky."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.182,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.859,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. 2.52 expected for SU Sintrense, 1.09 for AVS - Futebol SAD — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. On that evidence, more than 1.5 goals in it. Call it 86%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"odds":1.24,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.835051546391753,"narrative":"Away draw-no-bet at 1.24. The numbers give SU Sintrense the better of it, 2.53 to 1.08. This call survives that because it only needs AVS - Futebol SAD to avoid losing. Which is why we land on AVS - Futebol SAD coming out on top if there is a winner. That puts it at 84%, priced 1.24 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.832,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.15. The numbers give SU Sintrense the better of it, 2.47 to 1.10. This call survives that because it only needs AVS - Futebol SAD to avoid losing. Put together, the expectation is AVS - Futebol SAD avoiding defeat. Call it 83%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}