{"id":601554,"league_id":40,"league":"Carabao Cup","kickoff":1789669800,"home":"Manchester City","away":"Norwich City","home_id":12,"away_id":209,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[5,0],"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0f8d3f"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.03,"bookmaker":"888Sport","model_prob":0.941,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.03. Manchester City are considerably the stronger side on expected goals, 2.13 to 1.21, and the market has not argued with it. 94% likely, returning 3p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":6,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.07,"bookmaker":"10bet","model_prob":0.879,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.07. 2.13 and 1.21 makes 3.34 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. Call it 88%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"Bwin","model_prob":0.847,"narrative":"Home win at 1.14. Manchester City are considerably the stronger side on expected goals, 2.15 to 1.24, and the market has not argued with it. On that evidence, Manchester City winning it. That puts it at 85%, priced 1.14 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}