{"id":601549,"league_id":40,"league":"Carabao Cup","kickoff":1789498800,"home":"Reading","away":"Brentford","home_id":1248,"away_id":16,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,2],"colors":{"home":"#d4183d","away":"#b40f0f"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.08,"bookmaker":"Unibet","model_prob":0.894,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.08. Brentford are the better side at 1.71 to 1.62, though not by the margin the confidence number might suggest — the cushion here is the draw, not the win. What the confidence number does not see: congestion bites here: 1 matches already inside a week for Reading, and 3.2 days before this one. We make it 89% at 1.08. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.12,"bookmaker":"10bet","model_prob":0.852,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.12. 1.62 and 1.71 makes 3.33 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. Everything above points the same way: more than 1.5 goals in it. We make it 85% at 1.12. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.182,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.836,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.18. The model reads this as a 3.33-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. On that evidence, a winner rather than a draw. 84% on our numbers, 1.18 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}}]}