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back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Wouter Vrancken","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":94,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Heart of Midlothian come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.114583333333333,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.01260183310652703 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.001,"defence":0.001,"effective_matches":0,"shrunk":1},"away":{"attack":0.006,"defence":0.013,"effective_matches":1.5,"shrunk":0.84},"sample":0.01260183310652703,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.9,"shots":13,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.417,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.05},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.2,"shots":16.1,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.367,"finishing_vs_xg":0.24},"possession_gap":7.8},"strength":0.31,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Trabzonspor are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Heart of Midlothian are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"193 yellow cards in this referee's last 42 games, where 96 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds.","evidence":{"matches":42,"yellows_per_match":4.6,"reds_per_match":0.19,"league_yellows_per_match":2.28,"league_reds_per_match":0.11,"yellow_ratio":2.02,"red_ratio":1.74},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":15}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12,"temperature_c":20,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2939916836779091},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Hearts will punish a Trabzonspor side that has been riding its luck lately. While the hosts let in only 6 across their last eight games, the volume of chances they allowed should have cost them 12. Their goalkeeper and a run of fortune kept them safe, but that cannot continue. Hearts are trending up, creating better openings in their last four matches than they did previously. Losing their muscle-strained striker removes three goals from the hosts, leaving them blunt without a big chunk of their goals. Even though Hearts lose two assists from an injured midfielder, they have four wins from six. This game is decided when the home side's luck at the back finally runs out.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5480,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601417,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":197,"home_team":"Trabzonspor","away_team_id":231,"away_team":"Heart of Midlothian","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":72.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7269,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792657901,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#a01f35"},"venue":{"name":"Papara Park","city":"Trabzon","capacity":41000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}