{"id":601400,"league_id":83,"league":"Conference League","kickoff":1793908800,"home":"Panathinaikos FC","away":"CSKA Sofia","home_id":149,"away_id":345,"venue_id":1144,"rank":3,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.445,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.92,1.16],"flags":[{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Panathinaikos FC have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.7, and 3.00 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":1.9208544241367116,"lambda_away":1.1594311772102925,"corner_rate":10.53,"card_rate":0.106,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.75,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":2758,"name":"Iñaki Peña","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.752},{"id":3506,"name":"Anass Salah-Eddine","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.362},{"id":1696,"name":"Stefan de Vrij","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.775},{"id":5726,"name":"Rick Van Drongelen","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.697},{"id":2945,"name":"Davide Calabria","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.693},{"id":13044,"name":"Kings Kangwa","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.671},{"id":7651,"name":"Etienne Camara","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.603},{"id":10959,"name":"Santino Andino","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.757},{"id":2959,"name":"Vicente Taborda","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.489},{"id":8722,"name":"Facundo Pellistri","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.233},{"id":10963,"name":"Andreas Tetteh","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.701},{"id":4200,"name":"Georgios Kyriakopoulos","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.565},{"id":27602,"name":"Levi García","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.486},{"id":6034,"name":"Imrân Louza","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.463},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.457},{"id":2943,"name":"Erik Palmer Brown","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.276},{"id":10722,"name":"Triantafyllos Tsapras","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.244},{"id":7407,"name":"Elmin Rastoder","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.238},{"id":2952,"name":"Pedro Chirivella","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.238},{"id":10977,"name":"Adriano Jagušić","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.178},{"id":8723,"name":"Georgios Katris","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.159},{"id":36866,"name":"Panagiotis Biniaris","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.128},{"id":2956,"name":"Konstantinos Kotsaris","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05}],"confidence":0.75},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":10772,"name":"Fedor Lapoukhov","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.737},{"id":10778,"name":"Ángelo Martino","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.58},{"id":13521,"name":"Facundo Rodríguez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.572},{"id":10776,"name":"Teodor Ivanov","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.559},{"id":10797,"name":"Pastor","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.519},{"id":63762,"name":"Stefano Sensi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.642},{"id":10779,"name":"Bruno Jordão","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.695},{"id":10789,"name":"Max Ebong","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.662},{"id":2681,"name":"Léo Pereira","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.379},{"id":10786,"name":"Ioannis Pittas","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.69},{"id":10793,"name":"Leandro Godoy","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.589},{"id":3311,"name":"Dinis Almeida","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.365},{"id":10782,"name":"James Eto'o","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.312},{"id":12035,"name":"Joël Zwarts","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.302},{"id":10781,"name":"Mohamed Amine Brahimi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.26},{"id":10784,"name":"Isaac Solet","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.248},{"id":10800,"name":"Petko Panayotov","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.221},{"id":34087,"name":"Barry Cotter","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.189},{"id":10787,"name":"Andrey Yordanov","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.187},{"id":11005,"name":"Cătălin Itu","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.169},{"id":2783,"name":"Jean-Philippe Gbamin","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.146},{"id":10796,"name":"Dimitar Evtimov","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":11374,"name":"Aleks Tunchev","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025}],"confidence":0.864},"unavailable":[{"id":1044,"name":"Azzedine Ounahi","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":2758,"name":"Iñaki Peña","side":"home"},{"id":3506,"name":"Anass Salah-Eddine","side":"home"},{"id":1696,"name":"Stefan de Vrij","side":"home"},{"id":5726,"name":"Rick Van Drongelen","side":"home"},{"id":2945,"name":"Davide Calabria","side":"home"},{"id":13044,"name":"Kings Kangwa","side":"home"},{"id":7651,"name":"Etienne Camara","side":"home"},{"id":10959,"name":"Santino Andino","side":"home"},{"id":2959,"name":"Vicente Taborda","side":"home"},{"id":8722,"name":"Facundo Pellistri","side":"home"},{"id":10963,"name":"Andreas Tetteh","side":"home"},{"id":4200,"name":"Georgios Kyriakopoulos","side":"home"},{"id":27602,"name":"Levi García","side":"home"},{"id":6034,"name":"Imrân Louza","side":"home"},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","side":"home"},{"id":2943,"name":"Erik Palmer Brown","side":"home"},{"id":10722,"name":"Triantafyllos Tsapras","side":"home"},{"id":7407,"name":"Elmin Rastoder","side":"home"},{"id":2952,"name":"Pedro Chirivella","side":"home"},{"id":10977,"name":"Adriano Jagušić","side":"home"},{"id":8723,"name":"Georgios Katris","side":"home"},{"id":36866,"name":"Panagiotis Biniaris","side":"home"},{"id":2956,"name":"Konstantinos Kotsaris","side":"home"},{"id":2942,"name":"Sverrir Ingason","side":"home"},{"id":6959,"name":"Victor Kristiansen","side":"home"},{"id":4573,"name":"Vasileios Lavdas","side":"home"},{"id":10979,"name":"Giannis Bokos","side":"home"},{"id":150188,"name":"Iason Nempis","side":"home"},{"id":11410,"name":"Lucas Cháves","side":"home"},{"id":2957,"name":"Christos Gitonas","side":"home"},{"id":6039,"name":"Moussa Sissoko","side":"home"},{"id":10968,"name":"Pavlos Pantelidis","side":"home"},{"id":10952,"name":"Sotiris Kontouris","side":"home"},{"id":1044,"name":"Azzedine Ounahi","side":"home"},{"id":10772,"name":"Fedor Lapoukhov","side":"away"},{"id":10778,"name":"Ángelo Martino","side":"away"},{"id":13521,"name":"Facundo Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":10776,"name":"Teodor Ivanov","side":"away"},{"id":10797,"name":"Pastor","side":"away"},{"id":63762,"name":"Stefano Sensi","side":"away"},{"id":10779,"name":"Bruno Jordão","side":"away"},{"id":10789,"name":"Max Ebong","side":"away"},{"id":2681,"name":"Léo Pereira","side":"away"},{"id":10786,"name":"Ioannis Pittas","side":"away"},{"id":10793,"name":"Leandro Godoy","side":"away"},{"id":3311,"name":"Dinis Almeida","side":"away"},{"id":10782,"name":"James Eto'o","side":"away"},{"id":12035,"name":"Joël Zwarts","side":"away"},{"id":10781,"name":"Mohamed Amine Brahimi","side":"away"},{"id":10784,"name":"Isaac Solet","side":"away"},{"id":10800,"name":"Petko Panayotov","side":"away"},{"id":34087,"name":"Barry Cotter","side":"away"},{"id":10787,"name":"Andrey Yordanov","side":"away"},{"id":11005,"name":"Cătălin Itu","side":"away"},{"id":2783,"name":"Jean-Philippe Gbamin","side":"away"},{"id":10796,"name":"Dimitar Evtimov","side":"away"},{"id":11374,"name":"Aleks Tunchev","side":"away"},{"id":15447,"name":"Tamimou Ouorou","side":"away"},{"id":62163,"name":"Daniel Nikolov","side":"away"},{"id":52076,"name":"Vasil Kaymakanov","side":"away"},{"id":11529,"name":"Georgi Chorbadzhiyski","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":13044,"name":"Kings Kangwa","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"red_card_suspension","expected_return":"2026-11-08","season":{"apps":9,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FK Borac Banja Luka","kickoff":1792082700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.096,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":160,"country":0}},{"id":1044,"name":"Azzedine Ounahi","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2027-01-10","season":{"apps":5,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"FK Borac Banja Luka","kickoff":1792082700,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.009,"country":{"team":"Morocco","apps":7,"goals":2,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":6,"goals":2,"assists":0,"ended":1783627200},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":6959,"name":"Victor Kristiansen","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-04","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":4,"goals":9,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":5,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Kairat Almaty","kickoff":1792679400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.234,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":147,"country":0}},{"id":10963,"name":"Andreas Tetteh","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":12,"goals":6,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":7,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":2,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"PAOK","kickoff":1788719400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.193,"country":{"team":"Greece","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":148,"country":0}},{"id":2959,"name":"Vicente Taborda","side":"home","team":"Panathinaikos FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":6,"goals":3,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"PAOK","kickoff":1788719400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.094,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":55,"country":0}},{"id":10793,"name":"Leandro Godoy","side":"away","team":"CSKA Sofia","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":24,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Nordsjælland","kickoff":1792687500,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.122,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":10786,"name":"Ioannis Pittas","side":"away","team":"CSKA Sofia","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":9,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":24,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC CSKA 1948 Sofia","kickoff":1791738000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.07,"country":{"team":"Cyprus","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":159,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":149,"away":345},"split":{"home":{"above":null,"below":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1760,"name":"Jacob Neestrup","vs":null},"away":{"id":4110,"name":"Markus Gisdol","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"1044":{"caps":50,"goals":8,"country":"Morocco","signed":{"from":"Girona FC","fee":14000000,"at":1788307200}},"2959":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Boca Juniors","fee":4300000,"at":1756771200}},"4654":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Rangers","fee":4630000,"at":1756684800}},"10786":{"caps":53,"goals":6,"country":"Cyprus","signed":null},"10793":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Beroe Stara Zagora","fee":1800000,"at":1754524800}},"10963":{"caps":9,"goals":0,"country":"Greece","signed":{"from":"AE Kifisia","fee":2200000,"at":1767312000}},"13044":{"caps":28,"goals":1,"country":"Zambia","signed":{"from":"Hapoel Be'er Sheva","fee":3800000,"at":1785456000}}}},"notable":[{"id":7260,"name":"Kevin Behrens","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":7534,"name":"Winsley Boteli Mokango","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":4244,"name":"Andreas Cornelius","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":30956,"name":"Ercan Kara","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":3568,"name":"Mohamed Elyounoussi","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":16348,"name":"Nicklas Røjkjær","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":3297,"name":"Niklas Castro","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":3296,"name":"Noah Jean Holm","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":4513,"name":"Paris Brunner","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":3566,"name":"Robert","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"League phase · Matchday 3","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":149,"position":1,"played":2,"points":6,"goal_diff":5,"team_name":"Panathinaikos FC","won":2,"drawn":0,"lost":0,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":2,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":345,"position":23,"played":2,"points":1,"goal_diff":-1,"team_name":"CSKA Sofia","won":0,"drawn":1,"lost":1,"goals_for":3,"goals_against":4,"group":null},"size":36},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.5,"record":"5-0-1","goals_for":2.5,"goals_against":0.67,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"won 5","sequence":"LWWWWW","venue_ppg":3},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"2-3-1","goals_for":1.5,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"DWLDWD","venue_ppg":1.67}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Panathinaikos FC are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.118,"combined_importance":0.105,"players":[{"player":"Kings Kangwa","role":"MID","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0.118,"importance":0.096,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Azzedine Ounahi","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Victor Kristiansen","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.263,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CSKA Sofia report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.75,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jacob Neestrup has 21 matches in charge at Panathinaikos FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Jacob Neestrup","matches_in_charge":21,"tenure_days":439,"ppm":2.43,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Markus Gisdol is 11 games into the job at CSKA Sofia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Markus Gisdol","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":287,"ppm":2.09,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Panathinaikos FC come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CSKA Sofia come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.7877355631950755 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.195,"defence":0.075,"effective_matches":5.3,"shrunk":0.6},"away":{"attack":0.03,"defence":0.004,"effective_matches":1.8,"shrunk":0.82},"sample":1.7877355631950755,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.6,"shots":18.6,"xg_per_shot":0.128,"corners":7.2,"corners_per_shot":0.387,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.04},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52,"shots":19.5,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.65},"possession_gap":7.6},"strength":0.304,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Panathinaikos FC are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.04,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CSKA Sofia have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.65,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"152 yellow cards in this referee's last 54 games, where 137 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":54,"yellows_per_match":2.81,"reds_per_match":0.111,"league_yellows_per_match":2.53,"league_reds_per_match":0.123,"yellow_ratio":1.11,"red_ratio":0.9},"strength":0.102,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.6}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.6,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2801560893022186},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6854,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601400,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":149,"home_team":"Panathinaikos FC","away_team_id":345,"away_team":"CSKA Sofia","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":66.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6618,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793899704,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Panathinaikos will dictate this game from the opening whistle and secure another victory on home turf. The league leaders regularly dominate possession and turn it into better opportunities, especially in front of their own fans where they have carved out the clearer openings in five of their recent six outings. CSKA Sofia sit 23rd with just two wins from six, though their underlying football has actually produced good chances in five of those matches. Missing their suspended midfielder reduces some central drive for the hosts, but their defensive backline keeps limiting opponents to two or fewer shots on target. Ball control will settle this.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Panathinaikos FC are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.118,"combined_importance":0.105,"players":[{"player":"Kings Kangwa","role":"MID","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0.118,"importance":0.096,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Azzedine Ounahi","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Victor Kristiansen","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.263,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Markus Gisdol is 11 games into the job at CSKA Sofia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Markus Gisdol","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":287,"ppm":2.09,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.6,"shots":18.6,"xg_per_shot":0.128,"corners":7.2,"corners_per_shot":0.387,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.04},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52,"shots":19.5,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.65},"possession_gap":7.6},"strength":0.304,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#0a7642","away":"#cd1311"},"venue":{"name":"Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium","city":"Athens","capacity":69618},"pulled":[],"published":[]}