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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2801560893022186},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6878,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601391,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":382,"home_team":"Lincoln Red Imps","away_team_id":2343,"away_team":"HNK Hajduk Split","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":68.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6855,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793887463,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Hajduk Split should dominate this encounter by exploiting a porous Lincoln Red Imps back line. The home side struggles significantly, allowing at least six dangerous shots in almost all their recent matches. While Lincoln utilizes a 3-5-2 system, they are far too open and clearly outclassed as the 33rd side in the table. Hajduk Split maintains strong defensive discipline, recording clean sheets in half of their recent outings. With Kike Gomez leading the attack against a sturdy visiting structure, the hosts will likely fail to break through. The game hinges on the visitors controlling the midfield battle despite their squad depth issues.","drivers":[{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.1,"shots":6.3,"xg_per_shot":0.071,"corners":3.1,"corners_per_shot":0.5,"finishing_vs_xg":0.64},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.133,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.405,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"possession_gap":-4.2},"strength":0.168,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.514,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.486,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juan Manuel Pavon Dominguez is 9 games into the job at Lincoln Red Imps, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Juan Manuel Pavon Dominguez","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":115,"ppm":0.67,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":0.67,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#bb0f0f","away":"#22419a"},"venue":{"name":"Victoria Stadium","city":"Gibraltar","capacity":5000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}