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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.15625,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.430508628590236 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.023,"defence":0.082,"effective_matches":3.9,"shrunk":0.67},"away":{"attack":0.065,"defence":0.121,"effective_matches":1.4,"shrunk":0.85},"sample":1.430508628590236,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.7,"shots":15.5,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.312,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.34},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":60.7,"shots":18.1,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.295,"finishing_vs_xg":0.51},"possession_gap":-7},"strength":0.28,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FK Jablonec have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.34,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Brighton & Hove Albion have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.51,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"80 yellow cards in this referee's last 24 games, where 55 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 24 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":24,"yellows_per_match":3.33,"reds_per_match":0.167,"league_yellows_per_match":2.28,"league_reds_per_match":0.11,"yellow_ratio":1.46,"red_ratio":1.52,"sample":24,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.6,"temperature_c":7,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2939916836779091},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Brighton top the table, but their trip to face Jablonec will expose a gulf in true performance. The visitors create the better chances in most matches, dominating four of their last five on the road, yet their defensive results are heavily flattered by brilliant goalkeeping and pure fortune. Meanwhile, the hosts are severely underperforming, scoring only eight times from chances that should have brought fourteen. Without a key midfielder pulling the strings to craft openings, Jablonec must rely on Antonín Růsek to finally turn their superior shot quality into actual strikes. Brighton will control the flow and carve out openings, but their leaky backline cannot keep surviving on luck alone. Finishing decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5482,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601365,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4078,"home_team":"FK Jablonec","away_team_id":5,"away_team":"Brighton & Hove Albion","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":75.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7574,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792657949,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0c4b93"},"venue":{"name":"Stadion Střelnice","city":"Jablonec nad Nisou","capacity":6280},"pulled":[],"published":[]}