{"id":601356,"league_id":83,"league":"Conference League","kickoff":1793908800,"home":"FC Twente","away":"Pafos FC","home_id":178,"away_id":119,"venue_id":174,"rank":3,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.435,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2.23,1.02],"read":{"text":"FC Twente to win, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"Nothing to take on FC Twente against Pafos FC. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"FC Twente have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.7, and 1.50 a game at home."},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","note":"FC Twente average 14 points more possession than Pafos FC, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it."},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, AWAY has drifted 27.0% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":2.233564328441873,"lambda_away":1.024827465838841,"corner_rate":9.45,"card_rate":0.113,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.464,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":5278,"name":"Joël Drommel","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.633},{"id":3112,"name":"Aske Adelgaard","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.715},{"id":5258,"name":"Robin Pröpper","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.775},{"id":5272,"name":"Ruud Nijstad","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.731},{"id":5256,"name":"Bart van Rooij","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.756},{"id":5260,"name":"Ramiz Zerrouki","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.847},{"id":5593,"name":"Daouda Weidmann","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.713},{"id":5499,"name":"Sondre Ørjasæter","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.705},{"id":5392,"name":"Younes Taha","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.687},{"id":5262,"name":"Daan Rots","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.654},{"id":3775,"name":"Wout Weghorst","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.822},{"id":5255,"name":"Lars Unnerstall","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.442},{"id":5261,"name":"Thomas Van den Belt","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.431},{"id":29453,"name":"Michał Rosiak","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.322},{"id":5501,"name":"Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.29},{"id":5263,"name":"Kristian Hlynsson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.275},{"id":50094,"name":"Filip Thorvaldsen","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.255},{"id":8521,"name":"Jordy Bawuah","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.221},{"id":94166,"name":"Jip Meilink","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.199},{"id":3781,"name":"Remko Pasveer","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":29455,"name":"Krzysztof Kurowski","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":8767,"name":"Yannick Gerritsen","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.85},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":4083,"name":"Radosław Majecki","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.423},{"id":25525,"name":"Nikolas Ioannou","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.434},{"id":3601,"name":"David Luiz","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.38},{"id":3640,"name":"Samy Mmaee","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.366},{"id":3599,"name":"Bruno","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.379},{"id":25524,"name":"Alexandre Brito","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.255},{"id":3603,"name":"Pêpê","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.37},{"id":3604,"name":"Ivan Šunjić","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.353},{"id":21,"name":"Biel","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.411},{"id":5051,"name":"Lelê","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.313},{"id":4441,"name":"João Correia","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.326},{"id":3606,"name":"Vlad Dragomir","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.423},{"id":54267,"name":"Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":4232,"name":"Ken Sema","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.307},{"id":8895,"name":"Guga","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.3},{"id":3608,"name":"Anderson Silva","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.287},{"id":3602,"name":"David Goldar","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":3605,"name":"Domingos Quina","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.254},{"id":36857,"name":"Kosmas Ioannou","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":77383,"name":"Michalis Papastylianou","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":3614,"name":"Petros Petrou","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":8688,"name":"Georgios Michael","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":65954,"name":"Christos Evzonas","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.464},"unavailable":[{"id":5592,"name":"Max Bruns","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Unknown"}]},"people":[{"id":5278,"name":"Joël Drommel","side":"home"},{"id":3112,"name":"Aske Adelgaard","side":"home"},{"id":5258,"name":"Robin Pröpper","side":"home"},{"id":5272,"name":"Ruud Nijstad","side":"home"},{"id":5256,"name":"Bart van Rooij","side":"home"},{"id":5260,"name":"Ramiz Zerrouki","side":"home"},{"id":5593,"name":"Daouda Weidmann","side":"home"},{"id":5499,"name":"Sondre Ørjasæter","side":"home"},{"id":5392,"name":"Younes Taha","side":"home"},{"id":5262,"name":"Daan Rots","side":"home"},{"id":3775,"name":"Wout Weghorst","side":"home"},{"id":5255,"name":"Lars Unnerstall","side":"home"},{"id":5261,"name":"Thomas Van den Belt","side":"home"},{"id":29453,"name":"Michał Rosiak","side":"home"},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","side":"home"},{"id":5501,"name":"Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink","side":"home"},{"id":5263,"name":"Kristian Hlynsson","side":"home"},{"id":50094,"name":"Filip Thorvaldsen","side":"home"},{"id":8521,"name":"Jordy Bawuah","side":"home"},{"id":94166,"name":"Jip Meilink","side":"home"},{"id":3781,"name":"Remko Pasveer","side":"home"},{"id":29455,"name":"Krzysztof Kurowski","side":"home"},{"id":8767,"name":"Yannick Gerritsen","side":"home"},{"id":5257,"name":"Stav Lemkin","side":"home"},{"id":5592,"name":"Max Bruns","side":"home"},{"id":27472,"name":"Julien Mesbahi","side":"home"},{"id":8995,"name":"Nigel Groenewald","side":"home"},{"id":5565,"name":"Naci Ünüvar","side":"home"},{"id":5598,"name":"Benjamin Nagel","side":"home"},{"id":5620,"name":"Gijs Besselink","side":"home"},{"id":4083,"name":"Radosław Majecki","side":"away"},{"id":25525,"name":"Nikolas Ioannou","side":"away"},{"id":3601,"name":"David Luiz","side":"away"},{"id":3640,"name":"Samy Mmaee","side":"away"},{"id":3599,"name":"Bruno","side":"away"},{"id":25524,"name":"Alexandre Brito","side":"away"},{"id":3603,"name":"Pêpê","side":"away"},{"id":3604,"name":"Ivan Šunjić","side":"away"},{"id":21,"name":"Biel","side":"away"},{"id":5051,"name":"Lelê","side":"away"},{"id":4441,"name":"João Correia","side":"away"},{"id":3606,"name":"Vlad Dragomir","side":"away"},{"id":54267,"name":"Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu","side":"away"},{"id":4232,"name":"Ken Sema","side":"away"},{"id":8895,"name":"Guga","side":"away"},{"id":3608,"name":"Anderson Silva","side":"away"},{"id":3602,"name":"David Goldar","side":"away"},{"id":3605,"name":"Domingos Quina","side":"away"},{"id":36857,"name":"Kosmas Ioannou","side":"away"},{"id":77383,"name":"Michalis Papastylianou","side":"away"},{"id":3614,"name":"Petros Petrou","side":"away"},{"id":8688,"name":"Georgios Michael","side":"away"},{"id":65954,"name":"Christos Evzonas","side":"away"},{"id":3570,"name":"Yoram Zague","side":"away"},{"id":24000,"name":"Jonatás Noro","side":"away"},{"id":77384,"name":"Melinos Kais","side":"away"},{"id":209422,"name":"Lucca Vetter Paulino","side":"away"},{"id":8428,"name":"Afonso Patrao","side":"away"},{"id":4233,"name":"Jay Gorter","side":"away"},{"id":59592,"name":"Charalampos Kyriakidis","side":"away"},{"id":3610,"name":"Jajá","side":"away"},{"id":65953,"name":"Murad Mammadov","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":5592,"name":"Max Bruns","side":"home","team":"FC Twente","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Unknown","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":26,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"DAC 1904","kickoff":1786039200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"6-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.073,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","side":"home","team":"FC Twente","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":17,"starts":6,"goals":6,"assists":1,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":26,"tracked_apps":17,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"DAC 1904","kickoff":1786640400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.123,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":35,"country":0}},{"id":3775,"name":"Wout Weghorst","side":"home","team":"FC Twente","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":16,"starts":16,"goals":10,"assists":5,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":6,"team_games":26,"tracked_apps":16,"tracked_starts":16},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":5,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Excelsior","kickoff":1793539800,"goals":4,"assists":0,"score":"9-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.236,"country":{"team":"Netherlands","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782781200},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":136,"country":0}},{"id":21,"name":"Biel","side":"away","team":"Pafos FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Riga FC","kickoff":1792687500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.07,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":5051,"name":"Lelê","side":"away","team":"Pafos FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":3,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.003,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":178,"away":119},"split":{"home":{"above":null,"below":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":318,"name":"John van den Brom","vs":null},"away":{"id":1659,"name":"Ricardo Sá Pinto","vs":null}},"best_xi":[{"id":5256,"name":"Bart van Rooij","team_id":178,"position":"D","matches":6,"goals":0,"assists":1},{"id":5260,"name":"Ramiz Zerrouki","team_id":178,"position":"M","matches":6,"goals":2,"assists":0}],"players":{"5260":{"caps":52,"goals":1,"country":"Algeria","signed":{"from":"Feyenoord","fee":2250000,"at":1784505600}}}},"notable":[{"id":7260,"name":"Kevin Behrens","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":7534,"name":"Winsley Boteli Mokango","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":4244,"name":"Andreas Cornelius","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":30956,"name":"Ercan Kara","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":3568,"name":"Mohamed Elyounoussi","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":16348,"name":"Nicklas Røjkjær","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":3297,"name":"Niklas Castro","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":3296,"name":"Noah Jean Holm","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":4513,"name":"Paris Brunner","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":3566,"name":"Robert","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"League phase · Matchday 3","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":178,"position":5,"played":2,"points":6,"goal_diff":4,"team_name":"FC Twente","won":2,"drawn":0,"lost":0,"goals_for":5,"goals_against":1,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":119,"position":27,"played":2,"points":1,"goal_diff":-2,"team_name":"Pafos FC","won":0,"drawn":1,"lost":1,"goals_for":2,"goals_against":4,"group":null},"size":36},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":3,"goals_against":0.67,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"won 3","sequence":"DWLWWW","venue_ppg":1.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.67,"record":"0-4-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LDDDLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Twente are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.167,"combined_importance":0.073,"players":[{"player":"Max Bruns","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0.167,"importance":0.073,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]}]},"strength":0.182,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pafos FC report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.464,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.536,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John van den Brom has 32 matches in charge at FC Twente, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"John van den Brom","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.91,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ricardo Sá Pinto is 13 games into the job at Pafos FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Ricardo Sá Pinto","matches_in_charge":13,"tenure_days":282,"ppm":1.23,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Twente come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.270833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pafos FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":14.135416666666666,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":14.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 3.191027365697307 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.276,"defence":0.155,"effective_matches":4.2,"shrunk":0.66},"away":{"attack":-0.013,"defence":-0.061,"effective_matches":3.2,"shrunk":0.71},"sample":3.191027365697307,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Twente average 14 points more possession than Pafos FC, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":61.4,"shots":21.3,"xg_per_shot":0.128,"corners":6.6,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":0.37},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.2,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.239,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.29},"possession_gap":14.2},"strength":0.568,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Twente have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.37,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pafos FC have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"39 yellow cards in this referee's last 12 games, where 30 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 12 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":12,"yellows_per_match":3.25,"reds_per_match":0.167,"league_yellows_per_match":2.53,"league_reds_per_match":0.123,"yellow_ratio":1.29,"red_ratio":1.36,"sample":12,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2801560893022186},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"FC Twente should control this game as their possession and chance creation have been superior in most of their recent matches. While their league standing is strong, their home form has been strangely poor despite them crafting the better opportunities in four of their last five home fixtures. Pafos FC sit way down in 27th and have lost two of their last six. Twente keeps things tight with three clean sheets in six, but they must adjust their shape at the back without their regular central defender. With Wout Weghorst in lethal form after scoring five times in his last five appearances, his ability to finish those chances will be the difference against the visitors.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6861,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601356,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":178,"home_team":"FC Twente","away_team_id":119,"away_team":"Pafos FC","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":76,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7601,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793899718,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d0112a","away":"#0a4876"},"venue":{"name":"De Grolsch Veste","city":"Enschede","capacity":30205},"pulled":[],"published":[]}