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usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Wouter Vrancken","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":108,"ppm":1.57,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Thun come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.09375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Heart of Midlothian come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.114583333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.788825296548307 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.13,"defence":0.057,"effective_matches":1.8,"shrunk":0.82},"away":{"attack":-0.06,"defence":0.049,"effective_matches":3.1,"shrunk":0.72},"sample":1.788825296548307,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.8,"shots":14.7,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.328,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.3,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.37,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"possession_gap":-2.6},"strength":0.103,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Thun are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Heart of Midlothian are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"18 yellow cards in this referee's last 4 games, where 10 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 4 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":4,"yellows_per_match":4.5,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":2.53,"league_reds_per_match":0.123,"yellow_ratio":1.78,"red_ratio":0,"sample":4,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.5,"temperature_c":3,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2801560893022186},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Hearts are falling apart and Thun will take advantage of their defensive gaps. Although the hosts lost four of their last six, the visitors are trending down. Their last four games were their poorest for the chances they make and allow. Hearts lose their most important goal threat in Calvin Miller, who provided six goals and one assist. Without his output, they lack the bite to punish a Thun backline missing two defenders. Brighton Labeau has seven goals and will find space against a depleted Scottish defense. While Hearts won two of their last six, their current form is a lie. Labeau's clinical finishing decides this.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6877,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601354,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":255,"home_team":"FC Thun","away_team_id":231,"away_team":"Heart of Midlothian","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4159,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793887560,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d11127","away":"#a01f35"},"venue":{"name":"Stockhorn Arena","city":"Thun","capacity":10398},"pulled":[],"published":[]}