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Tullberg","matches_in_charge":78,"tenure_days":470,"ppm":2.1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Michel has 16 matches in charge at AFC Ajax, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Michel","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":89,"ppm":2.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Midtjylland come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.114583333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.90625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 4.165524571799673 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.102,"defence":0.111,"effective_matches":4.2,"shrunk":0.66},"away":{"attack":0.33,"defence":0.056,"effective_matches":5.2,"shrunk":0.61},"sample":4.165524571799673,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax average 13 points more possession than FC Midtjylland, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.5,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.333,"finishing_vs_xg":0.34},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":59.8,"shots":20.1,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.286,"finishing_vs_xg":0.43},"possession_gap":-13.3},"strength":0.533,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Midtjylland have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.34,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.43,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"200 yellow cards in this referee's last 42 games, where 106 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":42,"yellows_per_match":4.76,"reds_per_match":0.214,"league_yellows_per_match":2.53,"league_reds_per_match":0.123,"yellow_ratio":1.88,"red_ratio":1.74},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":15}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 498 km for AFC Ajax.","evidence":{"travel_km":498},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.9,"temperature_c":7,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2801560893022186},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Ajax will dominate the ball here, but Midtjylland possess the clinical edge to punish them. The visitors control possession in most of their matches and reliably translate that dominance into superior chances, out-creating opponents in seven of their last ten outings. Yet Midtjylland thrive without the initiative, proving they can create better openings even when starved of possession. Meanwhile, the hosts enter in strong form with four wins from six, spearheaded by Arokodare in blistering touch after scoring in three straight games alongside his eleven goals. Ajax will control the tempo, but Midtjylland's sharp counter-attacking threat decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6873,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601347,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":127,"home_team":"FC Midtjylland","away_team_id":122,"away_team":"AFC Ajax","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3927,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793887561,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":{"name":"MCH Arena","city":"Herning","capacity":11809},"pulled":[],"published":[]}