{"id":601317,"league_id":83,"league":"Conference League","kickoff":1792695600,"home":"AFC Ajax","away":"Atalanta","home_id":122,"away_id":71,"venue_id":120,"rank":3,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.468,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2.14,1.09],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Passing on AFC Ajax v Atalanta. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","note":"AFC Ajax average 16 points more possession than Atalanta, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it."},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","note":"168 yellow cards in this referee's last 34 games, where 77 would be usual in this league, and 16 reds."},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, HOME has shortened 19.3% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":2.1423711875713054,"lambda_away":1.0943589281904058,"corner_rate":10.35,"card_rate":0.215,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":5176,"name":"Marc-André Ter Stegen","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.803},{"id":2226,"name":"Caio Henrique","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.537},{"id":3768,"name":"Youri Baas","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.739},{"id":5177,"name":"Aaron Bouwman","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.655},{"id":2224,"name":"Thilo Kehrer","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.56},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.887},{"id":3776,"name":"Jorthy Mokio","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.709},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.655},{"id":3787,"name":"Oliver Valaker Edvardsen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.275},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.642},{"id":4604,"name":"Steven Berghuis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.527},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.65},{"id":2985,"name":"Sofyan Amrabat","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.529},{"id":3783,"name":"Lucas Rosa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.497},{"id":3769,"name":"Owen Wijndal","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.494},{"id":1043,"name":"Viktor Tsygankov","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.428},{"id":8576,"name":"Abdellah Ouazane","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.4},{"id":5386,"name":"Dies Janse","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.376},{"id":8002,"name":"Marcos Leonardo","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.365},{"id":756,"name":"Jofre Torrents ","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":9339,"name":"Maarten Paes","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.271},{"id":358,"name":"Simon Adingra","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.216},{"id":8590,"name":"Yves Bissouma","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.193}],"confidence":0.736},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":1297,"name":"Marco Carnesecchi","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.875},{"id":1317,"name":"Lorenzo Bernasconi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.563},{"id":4621,"name":"Thomas Kristensen","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.569},{"id":4310,"name":"Relja Obrić","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.273},{"id":1301,"name":"Raoul Bellanova","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.707},{"id":2212,"name":"Gianluca Gaetano","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.613},{"id":1302,"name":"Éderson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.789},{"id":1094,"name":"Eljif Elmas","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.427},{"id":969,"name":"Jonathan Rowe","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.403},{"id":1307,"name":"Gianluca Scamacca","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.533},{"id":1305,"name":"Charles De Ketelaere","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.639},{"id":1319,"name":"Lazar Samardžić","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.632},{"id":1311,"name":"Nikola Krstović","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.511},{"id":1308,"name":"Nicola Zalewski","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.487},{"id":1304,"name":"Davide Zappacosta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.476},{"id":1309,"name":"Mario Pašalić","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.416},{"id":64753,"name":"Javison Idele","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.19},{"id":1314,"name":"Marco Sportiello","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":87033,"name":"Mattia Sonzogni","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":77437,"name":"Matteo Plaia","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.714},"unavailable":[{"id":3784,"name":"Anton Gaaei","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":8117,"name":"Franck Kessié","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Calf Injury"},{"id":782,"name":"Giacomo Raspadori","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":4038,"name":"Giorgio Scalvini","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1310,"name":"Kamaldeen Sulemana","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":1298,"name":"Odilon Kossounou","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1312,"name":"Sead Kolašinac","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Calf Injury"},{"id":143510,"name":"Thomas Pompei","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Broken Finger"}]},"people":[{"id":5176,"name":"Marc-André Ter Stegen","side":"home"},{"id":2226,"name":"Caio Henrique","side":"home"},{"id":3768,"name":"Youri Baas","side":"home"},{"id":5177,"name":"Aaron Bouwman","side":"home"},{"id":2224,"name":"Thilo Kehrer","side":"home"},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","side":"home"},{"id":3776,"name":"Jorthy Mokio","side":"home"},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","side":"home"},{"id":3787,"name":"Oliver Valaker Edvardsen","side":"home"},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","side":"home"},{"id":4604,"name":"Steven Berghuis","side":"home"},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","side":"home"},{"id":2985,"name":"Sofyan Amrabat","side":"home"},{"id":3783,"name":"Lucas Rosa","side":"home"},{"id":3769,"name":"Owen Wijndal","side":"home"},{"id":1043,"name":"Viktor Tsygankov","side":"home"},{"id":8576,"name":"Abdellah Ouazane","side":"home"},{"id":5386,"name":"Dies Janse","side":"home"},{"id":8002,"name":"Marcos Leonardo","side":"home"},{"id":756,"name":"Jofre Torrents","side":"home"},{"id":9339,"name":"Maarten Paes","side":"home"},{"id":358,"name":"Simon Adingra","side":"home"},{"id":8590,"name":"Yves Bissouma","side":"home"},{"id":3784,"name":"Anton Gaaei","side":"home"},{"id":4110,"name":"Daley Blind","side":"home"},{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","side":"home"},{"id":3771,"name":"Rayane Bounida","side":"home"},{"id":3782,"name":"Joeri Heerkens","side":"home"},{"id":28500,"name":"Charlie Setford","side":"home"},{"id":13586,"name":"Mohamed Abdalla","side":"home"},{"id":3774,"name":"Mika Godts","side":"home"},{"id":1297,"name":"Marco Carnesecchi","side":"away"},{"id":1317,"name":"Lorenzo Bernasconi","side":"away"},{"id":4621,"name":"Thomas Kristensen","side":"away"},{"id":4310,"name":"Relja Obrić","side":"away"},{"id":1301,"name":"Raoul Bellanova","side":"away"},{"id":2212,"name":"Gianluca Gaetano","side":"away"},{"id":1302,"name":"Éderson","side":"away"},{"id":1094,"name":"Eljif Elmas","side":"away"},{"id":969,"name":"Jonathan Rowe","side":"away"},{"id":1307,"name":"Gianluca Scamacca","side":"away"},{"id":1305,"name":"Charles De Ketelaere","side":"away"},{"id":1319,"name":"Lazar Samardžić","side":"away"},{"id":1311,"name":"Nikola Krstović","side":"away"},{"id":1308,"name":"Nicola Zalewski","side":"away"},{"id":1304,"name":"Davide Zappacosta","side":"away"},{"id":1309,"name":"Mario Pašalić","side":"away"},{"id":64753,"name":"Javison Idele","side":"away"},{"id":1314,"name":"Marco Sportiello","side":"away"},{"id":87033,"name":"Mattia Sonzogni","side":"away"},{"id":77437,"name":"Matteo Plaia","side":"away"},{"id":1298,"name":"Odilon Kossounou","side":"away"},{"id":1299,"name":"Isak Hien","side":"away"},{"id":1312,"name":"Sead Kolašinac","side":"away"},{"id":4038,"name":"Giorgio Scalvini","side":"away"},{"id":1310,"name":"Kamaldeen Sulemana","side":"away"},{"id":782,"name":"Giacomo Raspadori","side":"away"},{"id":143510,"name":"Thomas Pompei","side":"away"},{"id":8117,"name":"Franck Kessié","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":3784,"name":"Anton Gaaei","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":12,"starts":10,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":20,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Shelbourne","kickoff":1786646700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.08,"country":{"team":"Denmark","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":null},{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":3,"assists":3,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":20,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":3,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Willem II Tilburg","kickoff":1789495200,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.088,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":20,"starts":11,"goals":8,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":20,"tracked_apps":18,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Sion","kickoff":1787853600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"5-3","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.138,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":167,"country":0}},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":10,"goals":8,"assists":0,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":20,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Groningen","kickoff":1792334700,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.141,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":254,"country":0}},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":6,"goals":8,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":20,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Sion","kickoff":1787853600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-3","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.205,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":179,"country":0}},{"id":782,"name":"Giacomo Raspadori","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":8,"starts":3,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Pafos FC","kickoff":1792090800,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.053,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":21,"country":0}},{"id":143510,"name":"Thomas Pompei","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Broken Finger","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":8117,"name":"Franck Kessié","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Venezia","kickoff":1791822600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.05,"country":{"team":"Côte d'Ivoire","apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"ended":1782838800},"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":76,"country":0}},{"id":4038,"name":"Giorgio Scalvini","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":9,"starts":8,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Feyenoord","kickoff":1785675600,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.087,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":67,"country":0}},{"id":1310,"name":"Kamaldeen Sulemana","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":"Ghana","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782594000},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":1307,"name":"Gianluca Scamacca","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Pafos FC","kickoff":1792090800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.104,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":109,"country":0}},{"id":1305,"name":"Charles De Ketelaere","side":"away","team":"Atalanta","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Pafos FC","kickoff":1792090800,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.048,"country":{"team":"Belgium","apps":11,"goals":4,"assists":3,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"ended":1783710000},"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":1}},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":223,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":122,"away":71},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1},"below":null},"away":{"above":null,"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":484,"name":"Michel","vs":null},"away":{"id":313,"name":"Maurizio Sarri","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"535":{"caps":9,"goals":2,"country":"Nigeria","signed":null},"782":{"caps":52,"goals":8,"country":"Italy","signed":{"from":"Atlético Madrid","fee":22000000,"at":1768435200}},"1305":{"caps":50,"goals":8,"country":"Belgium","signed":null},"1307":{"caps":20,"goals":1,"country":"Italy","signed":null},"1310":{"caps":32,"goals":1,"country":"Ghana","signed":null},"3779":{"caps":65,"goals":8,"country":"Denmark","signed":{"from":"RSC Anderlecht","fee":10000000,"at":1756771200}},"3784":{"caps":10,"goals":0,"country":"Denmark","signed":null},"4038":{"caps":11,"goals":0,"country":"Italy","signed":null},"8117":{"caps":76,"goals":6,"country":"Côte d'Ivoire","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":7534,"name":"Winsley Boteli Mokango","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":7260,"name":"Kevin Behrens","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":4244,"name":"Andreas Cornelius","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":4654,"name":"Cyriel Dessers","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":30956,"name":"Ercan Kara","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":5264,"name":"Marko Pjaca","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":3568,"name":"Mohamed Elyounoussi","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":16348,"name":"Nicklas Røjkjær","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":3566,"name":"Robert","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":7558,"name":"Andrin Hunziker","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":3263,"name":"Gue-sung Cho","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":27525,"name":"Hjalte Boe Rasmussen","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":5592,"name":"Max Bruns","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"League phase · Matchday 2","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":2,"home_wins":0,"draws":1,"away_wins":1,"home_goals":2,"away_goals":3,"avg_total_goals":2.5,"home_win_rate":0,"away_win_rate":0.5,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Atalanta","date":"2020-12-09T17:55:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"0-1","event_id":322849,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":71,"home_team_id":122},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2020-10-27T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Atalanta","score":"2-2","event_id":322783,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":71}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":122,"position":25,"played":1,"points":0,"goal_diff":-1,"team_name":"AFC Ajax","won":0,"drawn":0,"lost":1,"goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":71,"position":4,"played":1,"points":3,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"Atalanta","won":1,"drawn":0,"lost":0,"goals_for":3,"goals_against":1,"group":null},"size":36},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":3,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"unbeaten 4","sequence":"WLWWDD","venue_ppg":1.25},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWLLLW","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.091,"combined_importance":0.168,"players":[{"player":"Kasper Dolberg","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.045,"importance":0.088,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6,"tags":["in_form"]},{"player":"Anton Gaaei","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.045,"importance":0.08,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["best_performer"]}]},"strength":0.42,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta are without 7 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":7,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.19,"players":[{"player":"Giorgio Scalvini","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.087,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Giacomo Raspadori","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.053,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Franck Kessié","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Kamaldeen Sulemana","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Odilon Kossounou","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Sead Kolašinac","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Thomas Pompei","role":"GK","reason":"Broken Finger","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3}]},"strength":0.475,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.286,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Michel is 13 games into the job at AFC Ajax, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Michel","matches_in_charge":13,"tenure_days":75,"ppm":1.92,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Maurizio Sarri is 9 games into the job at Atalanta, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Maurizio Sarri","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":62,"ppm":1.67,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.67,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.177083333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.125,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.4306935165298114 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.395,"defence":0.026,"effective_matches":3.9,"shrunk":0.67},"away":{"attack":-0.057,"defence":0.114,"effective_matches":1.4,"shrunk":0.85},"sample":1.4306935165298114,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax average 16 points more possession than Atalanta, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":64.3,"shots":24.3,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":8.1,"corners_per_shot":0.333,"finishing_vs_xg":0.09},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.4,"shots":12.6,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":3.4,"corners_per_shot":0.268,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"possession_gap":15.9},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"168 yellow cards in this referee's last 34 games, where 77 would be usual in this league, and 16 reds.","evidence":{"matches":34,"yellows_per_match":4.94,"reds_per_match":0.471,"league_yellows_per_match":2.28,"league_reds_per_match":0.11,"yellow_ratio":2.17,"red_ratio":4.29},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":15}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta travel 813 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":813},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":0}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.2,"temperature_c":13,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2939916836779091},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Ajax will control this game because their process is far superior to their opponents. While Ajax consistently create the better chances, Atalanta are currently outperforming their actual performance level thanks to a goalkeeper who masks their defensive leaks. Ajax dominate possession and turn that control into dangerous opportunities, whereas Atalanta are struggling to score after losing key attacking threats. Atalanta rely on defensive fortune to survive, yet they now face a home side that has been hitting their stride with clearer chances in recent outings. Without their main defensive leaders, the visitors lack the structure to hold back a side that creates high quality openings almost every week. Ajax have the form to expose this gap, proving that creating better chances is what decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5467,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601317,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":122,"home_team":"AFC Ajax","away_team_id":71,"away_team":"Atalanta","league_id":83,"league_name":"Conference League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4438,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792658021,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#2061ab"},"venue":{"name":"Johan Cruijff Arena","city":"Amsterdam","capacity":55865},"pulled":[],"published":[]}