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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.72,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"GNK Dinamo Zagreb have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.35,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"126 yellow cards in this referee's last 34 games, where 135 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":34,"yellows_per_match":3.71,"reds_per_match":0.147,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":0.94,"red_ratio":0.87},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.3,"temperature_c":8,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Sunderland will edge a tight battle by turning their territorial pressure into overdue goals. The underlying metrics suggest the visitors play better than their recent form indicates, despite failing to win three of their last seven matches despite creating the better openings. Meanwhile, the hosts underperform in front of goal by scoring only 11 times in their last 10 outings from opportunities that usually produce 19, meaning an upturn is due. Defensively, the away side concedes heavily from very little, shipping 12 in their last 7 against chances costing about 8. Sunderland miss defensive stability with Nordi Mukiele sidelined until November 13, which alters their backline organisation. Ultimately, clinical finishing in the box decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6856,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601306,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":7,"home_team":"Sunderland","away_team_id":133,"away_team":"GNK Dinamo Zagreb","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":64.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6433,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601306,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Sunderland","away_team":"GNK Dinamo Zagreb","polymarket_event_id":"1241807","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":1225.914964,"volume_1wk":1729.464052,"volume_1mo":1892.496375,"volume_1yr":1892.496375,"open_interest":3086.4478750000007,"liquidity_clob":137530.357,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.68,"best_ask":0.69,"change_1d":0.03,"change_1wk":0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.05,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.05,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.037,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.016,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.004,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.105,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.09,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0375,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.01,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.115,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.105,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.045,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0115,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0085,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.085,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.07,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.033,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.009,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.008,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.12,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.035,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.03,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0115,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0065,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0345,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0305,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 0 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.014,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0145,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 2 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.01,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.12,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.0405,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 5 GNK Dinamo Zagreb":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T11:57:31Z"}},"computed_at":1793887572,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#eb2639","away":"#0c5093"},"venue":{"name":"Stadium of Light","city":"Sunderland","capacity":48707},"pulled":[],"published":[]}