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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"This one tilts toward Sturm Graz because the underlying numbers tell a clear story. Sturm Graz create the better chances nearly every week, thriving even when surrendering possession, and they have driven up their chance creation across their last four outings while dominating their recent home fixtures. Celje simply cannot match that output, having been out-created in most of their recent matches and three of their last five outings. Celje are missing a big chunk of their goals alongside a key midfielder, and Sturm Graz will control the flow despite missing a defender and their main scorer. Sturm Graz win this because they carve open opponents consistently while Celje struggle to generate enough threat at the other end.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6852,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601299,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":128,"home_team":"SK Sturm Graz","away_team_id":406,"away_team":"NK Celje","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":61.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6162,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601299,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"SK Sturm Graz","away_team":"NK Celje","polymarket_event_id":"1241802","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":595.634829,"volume_1wk":715.870004,"volume_1mo":715.870004,"volume_1yr":715.870004,"open_interest":2095.810004,"liquidity_clob":129126.541,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.63,"best_ask":0.64,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.05,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 0 NK Celje":0.0435,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 1 NK Celje":0.0375,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 2 NK Celje":0.0175,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 3 NK Celje":0.007,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 4 NK Celje":0.0085,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 0 - 5 NK Celje":0.0085,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 0 NK Celje":0.095,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 1 NK Celje":0.095,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 2 NK Celje":0.0445,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 3 NK Celje":0.014,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 4 NK Celje":0.01,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1 - 5 NK Celje":0.0085,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 0 NK Celje":0.095,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 1 NK Celje":0.105,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 2 NK Celje":0.053,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 3 NK Celje":0.0165,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 4 NK Celje":0.009,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2 - 5 NK Celje":0.0085,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 0 NK Celje":0.075,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 1 NK Celje":0.07,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 2 NK Celje":0.0375,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 3 NK Celje":0.014,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 4 NK Celje":0.009,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 3 - 5 NK Celje":0.08,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 0 NK Celje":0.0405,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 1 NK Celje":0.0385,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 2 NK Celje":0.011,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 3 NK Celje":0.0085,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 4 NK Celje":0.0345,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 4 - 5 NK Celje":0.079,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 0 NK Celje":0.016,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 1 NK Celje":0.016,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 2 NK Celje":0.0105,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 3 NK Celje":0.08,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 4 NK Celje":0.082,"SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 5 - 5 NK Celje":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T11:57:31Z"}},"computed_at":1793887693,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#404040","away":"#1e2f61"},"venue":{"name":"Merkur Arena","city":"Graz","capacity":16764},"pulled":[],"published":[]}