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fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pellegrino Matarazzo has 32 matches in charge at Real Sociedad, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pellegrino Matarazzo","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.22,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paulo Fonseca has 29 matches in charge at Olympique Lyonnais, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paulo Fonseca","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":215,"ppm":1.79,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Sociedad come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.90625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.0625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.671798518954219 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.123,"defence":0.049,"effective_matches":2.7,"shrunk":0.75},"away":{"attack":0.036,"defence":-0.015,"effective_matches":4,"shrunk":0.67},"sample":2.671798518954219,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.2,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.424,"finishing_vs_xg":0.58},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.2,"shots":12.9,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.361,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"possession_gap":2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Sociedad have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.58,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"144 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 127 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":4.5,"reds_per_match":0.25,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.14,"red_ratio":1.49},"strength":0.123,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.1,"temperature_c":12,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Real Sociedad should take control here because their recent form is built on a clear upward trend of creating better openings. The hosts dominate possession in most of their matches and turn that control into threat, though their finishing is currently running hot by scoring 22 goals from a lower volume of quality. Meanwhile, the visitors are missing a massive chunk of their attacking output through absences up front and in midfield, stripping them of key contributors like the injured Ernest Nuamah who provides six goals and one assist. Without those vital scoring boots, the visitors lack the firepower to punish a home defense that misses three players at the back. Expect the hosts to dictate the tempo and capitalize on their superior chance creation to secure the win.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6868,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601285,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":48,"home_team":"Real Sociedad","away_team_id":100,"away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":55.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5546,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601285,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","home_team":"Real Sociedad","away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","polymarket_event_id":"1236485","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":4522.458125,"volume_1wk":4710.636718,"volume_1mo":4710.636718,"volume_1yr":4710.636718,"open_interest":6583.502732999999,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-05T09:57:29Z"}},"computed_at":1793887562,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d57a6","away":"#1112ab"},"venue":{"name":"Reale Arena","city":"San Sebastian","capacity":40000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}