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nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.916666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Red Bull Salzburg come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.177083333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.762689268177973 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.039,"defence":0.121,"effective_matches":6.1,"shrunk":0.57},"away":{"attack":0.003,"defence":-0.105,"effective_matches":5.8,"shrunk":0.58},"sample":5.762689268177973,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.333,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":57.4,"shots":16.5,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.313,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"possession_gap":1.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RSC Anderlecht are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Red Bull Salzburg have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"34 yellow cards in this referee's last 11 games, where 44 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 11 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":11,"yellows_per_match":3.09,"reds_per_match":0.182,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":0.78,"red_ratio":1.08,"sample":11,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.5,"temperature_c":6,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Salzburg take this one because their recent performances are far better than their raw results suggest. While Anderlecht win four of their last six matches, they dominate possession in five of eight games without creating the better chances, relying heavily on home form. Salzburg, by contrast, trend firmly upward, generating superior openings in their last four outings. They manage this despite missing vital midfield craft and defensive cover, including two men who contribute two goals and two assists apiece alongside a key creator sidelined with an ankle problem. Anderlecht also miss a defensive pillar with a broken leg, exposing a backline that will struggle to hold firm. Haris Tabaković spearheads the visitors with eight goals this season, scoring four times in his last five appearances, and he will punish an Anderlecht side that hogs the ball to nowhere. Ultimately, superior chance creation swings this match to the visitors.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6882,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601282,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":240,"home_team":"RSC Anderlecht","away_team_id":147,"away_team":"Red Bull Salzburg","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":47.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4748,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601282,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","home_team":"RSC Anderlecht","away_team":"Red Bull Salzburg","polymarket_event_id":"1236483","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":2649.425468,"volume_1wk":3519.612357,"volume_1mo":3519.612357,"volume_1yr":3519.612357,"open_interest":5265.770627000001,"liquidity_clob":76490.7019,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.48,"best_ask":0.49,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.01,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.105,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.046,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.052,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.034,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0155,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0055,"RSC Anderlecht 0 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0685,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.075,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.11,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.065,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0285,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0115,"RSC Anderlecht 1 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.007,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.065,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.095,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.065,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.027,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0115,"RSC Anderlecht 2 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0435,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.045,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.055,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.039,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.018,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.006,"RSC Anderlecht 3 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.09,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0195,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0255,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0185,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.011,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0155,"RSC Anderlecht 4 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0895,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 0 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0105,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 1 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0125,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 2 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.0095,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 3 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.08,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 4 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.078,"RSC Anderlecht 5 - 5 FC Red Bull Salzburg":0.005},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T09:57:29Z"}},"computed_at":1793887563,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#4e2687","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Lotto Park","city":"Brussels","capacity":21500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}