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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympiacos FC have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.7,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Sparta Praha have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.56,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"125 yellow cards in this referee's last 33 games, where 130 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":33,"yellows_per_match":3.79,"reds_per_match":0.091,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.96,"red_ratio":0.45},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.8,"temperature_c":21,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Sparta Praha will likely dominate possession and threaten the goal, yet their poor away form suggests a tight draw. While Olympiacos often waste shots from low value positions, their finishing is due for a positive correction because they have been underperforming relative to their creative output. Sparta controls the ball well to craft opportunities, but the absence of key defensive personnel will leave them vulnerable to counter attacks. Olympiacos relies on a strong defensive record to stay competitive while missing their primary creative forces. Sparta must overcome their travel struggles to impose control, whereas the home side hopes to improve their accuracy. The decisive factor remains whether the visitors can protect their back line long enough to exploit their superior ball retention.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5462,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601266,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":118,"home_team":"Olympiacos FC","away_team_id":1340,"away_team":"AC Sparta Praha","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":62.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6224,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601266,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Olympiacos FC","away_team":"AC Sparta Praha","polymarket_event_id":"1160558","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":192.104673,"volume_1wk":260.828158,"volume_1mo":260.828158,"volume_1yr":260.828158,"open_interest":1713.272098,"liquidity_clob":48278.577,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.64,"best_ask":0.65,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":0.085,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.21,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.0575,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.045,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.019,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.0055,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.0085,"Olympiakós SFP 0 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.0085,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.12,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.1,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.0405,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.011,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.011,"Olympiakós SFP 1 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.0085,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.115,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.105,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.0465,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.012,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.011,"Olympiakós SFP 2 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.0085,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.075,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.065,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.032,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.008,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.021,"Olympiakós SFP 3 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.215,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.0265,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.031,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.0125,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.007,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.0345,"Olympiakós SFP 4 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.205,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 0 AC Sparta Praha":0.0135,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 1 AC Sparta Praha":0.0125,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 2 AC Sparta Praha":0.0095,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 3 AC Sparta Praha":0.14,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 4 AC Sparta Praha":0.22,"Olympiakós SFP 5 - 5 AC Sparta Praha":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T04:27:20Z"}},"computed_at":1792658023,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#453a43"},"venue":{"name":"Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium","city":"Piraeus","capacity":33334},"pulled":[],"published":[]}