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fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Carles Martínez","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":63,"ppm":2.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.44,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"OFI Crete come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.15625,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.135416666666667,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.8333579865432654 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.042,"defence":0.076,"effective_matches":2.3,"shrunk":0.78},"away":{"attack":0.02,"defence":0.042,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"sample":0.8333579865432654,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; OFI Crete work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.1,"shots":9.6,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.389,"finishing_vs_xg":0.56},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":56.9,"shots":19.6,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.28,"finishing_vs_xg":0.63},"possession_gap":-7.8},"strength":0.313,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"OFI Crete have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.56,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.63,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"11 yellow cards in this referee's last 9 games, where 35 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 9 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":9,"yellows_per_match":1.22,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.31,"red_ratio":0,"sample":9,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.6,"temperature_c":22,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen will dominate this tie by consistently crafting high quality scoring opportunities while their hosts struggle to generate threats. Leverkusen control possession and translate that dominance into productive attacks, whereas OFI Crete frequently concede more chances than they create. Leverkusen boast Patrik Schick, who enters this match in remarkable form after scoring in four straight games. Meanwhile, OFI Crete face a severe selection crisis that strips them of their primary goal threats and their regular goalkeeper, significantly weakening their structure. Although the hosts pride themselves on playing a different game at home, Leverkusen possess the superior attacking depth to overcome their own defensive absences. Quality chance creation will prove the decisive factor.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5477,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601261,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":332,"home_team":"OFI Crete","away_team_id":85,"away_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":77.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7738,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601261,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","home_team":"OFI Crete","away_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","polymarket_event_id":"1155051","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":2162.366835,"volume_1wk":3369.170673,"volume_1mo":3369.170673,"volume_1yr":3369.170673,"open_interest":6066.847456999999,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T02:57:21Z"}},"computed_at":1792658013,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#999999","away":"#ec1313"},"venue":{"name":"Pagritio","city":"Heraklion","capacity":25780},"pulled":[],"published":[]}