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Frederiksen","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":202,"ppm":2.1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Régis Le Bris has 21 matches in charge at Sunderland, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Régis Le Bris","matches_in_charge":21,"tenure_days":187,"ppm":1.43,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.052083333333333,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.15625,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.8333579865432654 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.123,"defence":-0.014,"effective_matches":3.7,"shrunk":0.68},"away":{"attack":0.028,"defence":0.023,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"sample":0.8333579865432654,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.3,"shots":18.1,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.341,"finishing_vs_xg":0.73},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.7,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.379,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.65},"possession_gap":5.5},"strength":0.222,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań have scored 9 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.73,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.65,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"29 yellow cards in this referee's last 9 games, where 35 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 9 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":9,"yellows_per_match":3.22,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.82,"red_ratio":0,"sample":9,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.8,"temperature_c":10,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Lech Poznań are bottom of the table, but their underlying performance makes them dangerous. They have generated the superior opportunities in five of their last seven outings. While Sunderland have lost three of their last six, their current results mask their true output. They often create high quality openings despite holding the ball less, even though they have netted only 8 times from chances usually worth 15. The visitors struggle with key losses across the pitch, particularly losing the movement and finishing of their leading marksman. With both sides missing a significant chunk of their attacking threats, the match hinges on efficiency. Lech will dictate the play, but Sunderland’s ability to punish teams on the break will define the result.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5472,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601243,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":375,"home_team":"Lech Poznań","away_team_id":7,"away_team":"Sunderland","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":56.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5653,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601243,"event_date":"2026-10-22T16:45:00Z","home_team":"Lech Poznań","away_team":"Sunderland","polymarket_event_id":"1155049","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":301.157102,"volume_1wk":1185.713549,"volume_1mo":1185.713549,"volume_1yr":1185.713549,"open_interest":2780.1808049999995,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T02:57:21Z"}},"computed_at":1792658014,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c5192","away":"#eb2639"},"venue":{"name":"Enea Poznań","city":"Poznan","capacity":42837},"pulled":[],"published":[]}