{"id":601240,"league_id":8,"league":"Europa League","kickoff":1789671600,"home":"Juventus","away":"NEC Nijmegen","home_id":73,"away_id":171,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[5,0],"colors":{"home":"#404040","away":"#ec1a1a"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.06,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.913913913913914,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.06. Juventus project to score 2.1 times what NEC Nijmegen manage. Games that one-sided on paper usually are. 91% likely, returning 6p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":6,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.167,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.867,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.17. 1.98 and 0.96 makes 2.94 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. Take the lot together and a winner rather than a draw is the read. That puts it at 87%, priced 1.17 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.143,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.843,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.14. Expected goals total 2.94 against a line of 1.5: above it, which is the call. On that evidence, more than 1.5 goals in it. 84% on our numbers, 1.14 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}