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reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pierre Sage has 27 matches in charge at Crystal Palace, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pierre Sage","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":230,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Christian Ilzer has 28 matches in charge at TSG Hoffenheim, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Christian Ilzer","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.54,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crystal Palace come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.010416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"TSG Hoffenheim come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.135416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.5169173051323264 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.071,"defence":0.031,"effective_matches":2.5,"shrunk":0.76},"away":{"attack":0.036,"defence":-0.048,"effective_matches":2.6,"shrunk":0.75},"sample":2.5169173051323264,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"TSG Hoffenheim average 11 points more possession than Crystal Palace, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":10.1,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.372,"finishing_vs_xg":0.24},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.4,"shots":17.6,"xg_per_shot":0.093,"corners":7.1,"corners_per_shot":0.403,"finishing_vs_xg":0.03},"possession_gap":-11.2},"strength":0.447,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crystal Palace are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"TSG Hoffenheim are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"243 yellow cards in this referee's last 49 games, where 194 would be usual in this league, and 16 reds.","evidence":{"matches":49,"yellows_per_match":4.96,"reds_per_match":0.327,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.25,"red_ratio":1.94},"strength":0.228,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":5.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.8,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Hoffenheim enter this game with clear momentum, having significantly improved the quality of chances they generate over their recent four games. Conversely, Palace struggle for rhythm, as their last four outings reveal a dip in chance creation and increased vulnerability at the back. Palace must cope without their primary forward outlet, forcing them to rely on less reliable attacking options. The visitors deal with a depleted midfield, yet their improved form suggests they will control the tempo. Despite missing key contributors across their squad, the German side remains better equipped to sustain pressure. Palace have dropped four of their last six games, and their fatigue in this fourth match in a fortnight will decide the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6876,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601212,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":14,"home_team":"Crystal Palace","away_team_id":86,"away_team":"TSG Hoffenheim","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":49.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4973,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601212,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","home_team":"Crystal Palace","away_team":"TSG Hoffenheim","polymarket_event_id":"1236482","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":13454.554148,"volume_1wk":13830.992485,"volume_1mo":14765.067907,"volume_1yr":14765.067907,"open_interest":16790.092906,"liquidity_clob":268461.9288,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.51,"best_ask":0.52,"change_1d":0.02,"change_1wk":0.005,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.175,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.035,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.042,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.03,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0145,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.008,"Crystal Palace FC 0 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.061,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.065,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.1,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.065,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0285,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.009,"Crystal Palace FC 1 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0145,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.065,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.095,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.075,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.028,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.01,"Crystal Palace FC 2 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.015,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.045,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.065,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.045,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0215,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.009,"Crystal Palace FC 3 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0845,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.023,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.029,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0195,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0085,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.007,"Crystal Palace FC 4 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0985,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.01,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.012,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.011,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0395,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0835,"Crystal Palace FC 5 - 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim":0.0015},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T10:57:31Z"}},"computed_at":1793887565,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d5aa3","away":"#0c5797"},"venue":{"name":"Selhurst Park","city":"London","capacity":25456},"pulled":[],"published":[]}