{"id":601211,"league_id":8,"league":"Europa League","kickoff":1789671600,"home":"Crystal Palace","away":"Lech Poznań","home_id":14,"away_id":375,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[4,0],"colors":{"home":"#0d5aa3","away":"#0c5192"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.872127872127872,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.10. Expected goals split 1.44 to 1.46, 2.90 in the match. The shape of that total is what this call reads. That is the case, and it ends at Crystal Palace avoiding defeat. 87% likely, returning 10p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"Betano","model_prob":0.842751842751843,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.13. Expected goals split 1.44 to 1.46, 2.90 in the match. The shape of that total is what this call reads. Take the lot together and Crystal Palace coming out on top if there is a winner is the read. That puts it at 84%, priced 1.13 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.807,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. 1.44 expected for Crystal Palace, 1.46 for Lech Poznań — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. Which is why we land on more than 1.5 goals in it. We make it 81% at 1.20. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}