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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.827,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.173,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Martin O'Neill has 28 matches in charge at Celtic, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Martin O'Neill","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":215,"ppm":1.96,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vincenzo Italiano has 29 matches in charge at Beşiktaş JK, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Vincenzo Italiano","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":453,"ppm":1.93,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.291666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Beşiktaş JK come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 3.7673447386875747 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.036,"defence":-0.112,"effective_matches":3.8,"shrunk":0.68},"away":{"attack":0.13,"defence":0.125,"effective_matches":6.1,"shrunk":0.57},"sample":3.7673447386875747,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Celtic work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":58.8,"shots":18.3,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":9.3,"corners_per_shot":0.505,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.16},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":59.9,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":0.34},"possession_gap":-1.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Beşiktaş JK have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.34,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"125 yellow cards in this referee's last 34 games, where 135 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":34,"yellows_per_match":3.68,"reds_per_match":0.265,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":0.93,"red_ratio":1.57},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-1.6}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.5,"temperature_c":6,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Beşiktaş JK are the side doing the right things underneath the results. Beşiktaş JK have created the better chances in seven of their last ten games. On top of that, they are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. And they have had most of the ball in seven of their last eight games, and they turn it into chances. If that carries on, Beşiktaş JK should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6849,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601208,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":132,"home_team":"Celtic","away_team_id":196,"away_team":"Beşiktaş JK","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":43.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4308,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601208,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Celtic","away_team":"Beşiktaş JK","polymarket_event_id":"1241801","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":11860.364737,"volume_1wk":16331.660075,"volume_1mo":16331.660075,"volume_1yr":16331.660075,"open_interest":15056.620308000001,"liquidity_clob":161794.4624,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.31,"best_ask":0.32,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":-0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.07,"Celtic FC 0 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.0385,"Celtic FC 0 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.065,"Celtic FC 0 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.055,"Celtic FC 0 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.0345,"Celtic FC 0 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.0165,"Celtic FC 0 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.009,"Celtic FC 1 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.055,"Celtic FC 1 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.105,"Celtic FC 1 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.095,"Celtic FC 1 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.055,"Celtic FC 1 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.0225,"Celtic FC 1 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.012,"Celtic FC 2 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.0385,"Celtic FC 2 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.075,"Celtic FC 2 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.075,"Celtic FC 2 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.0415,"Celtic FC 2 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.0165,"Celtic FC 2 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.01,"Celtic FC 3 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.0215,"Celtic FC 3 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.0365,"Celtic FC 3 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.0345,"Celtic FC 3 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.0215,"Celtic FC 3 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.012,"Celtic FC 3 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.045,"Celtic FC 4 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.012,"Celtic FC 4 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.014,"Celtic FC 4 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.012,"Celtic FC 4 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.0105,"Celtic FC 4 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.0215,"Celtic FC 4 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.0625,"Celtic FC 5 - 0 Beşiktaş JK":0.009,"Celtic FC 5 - 1 Beşiktaş JK":0.0085,"Celtic FC 5 - 2 Beşiktaş JK":0.01,"Celtic FC 5 - 3 Beşiktaş JK":0.065,"Celtic FC 5 - 4 Beşiktaş JK":0.0625,"Celtic FC 5 - 5 Beşiktaş JK":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T12:57:32Z"}},"computed_at":1793887739,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#d51111"},"venue":{"name":"Celtic Park","city":"Glasgow","capacity":60411},"pulled":[],"published":[]}