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reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Martin O'Neill has 24 matches in charge at Celtic, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Martin O'Neill","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":201,"ppm":2.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Claudio Giráldez has 27 matches in charge at Celta Vigo, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Claudio Giráldez","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":201,"ppm":1.22,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Vigo come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.197916666666667,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.277671454265789 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.002,"defence":-0.07,"effective_matches":2.3,"shrunk":0.78},"away":{"attack":-0.034,"defence":0.08,"effective_matches":3.4,"shrunk":0.7},"sample":2.277671454265789,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic average 9 points more possession than Celta Vigo, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.7,"shots":17.8,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":8.5,"corners_per_shot":0.477,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.24},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.5,"shots":10.9,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.367,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"possession_gap":9.1},"strength":0.365,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Vigo have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"180 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 138 would be usual in this league, and 16 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":5.14,"reds_per_match":0.457,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":1.31,"red_ratio":2.28},"strength":0.276,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":6.9}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.2,"temperature_c":10,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Celtic will dominate possession, but Celta Vigo's improving attack makes them far more dangerous than recent results suggest. Celta Vigo have won only one of their last six, yet they are creating much better chances over their last four matches than they did previously. Celtic have won four of their last six and kept three clean sheets in six, having controlled the ball in seven of their last eight fixtures to create regular opportunities. However, missing key defenders like Cameron Carter-Vickers, who started ten of their 15 matches, leaves Celtic vulnerable at the back. Without key midfielder Yang Hyun-Jun driving them forward, Celtic may struggle to keep pace with Camilo Durán. Durán's hot form decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5456,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601207,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":132,"home_team":"Celtic","away_team_id":49,"away_team":"Celta Vigo","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":37.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3718,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601207,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Celtic","away_team":"Celta Vigo","polymarket_event_id":"1160554","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":19400.009215,"volume_1wk":26900.336494,"volume_1mo":26900.336494,"volume_1yr":26900.336494,"open_interest":22525.210708999995,"liquidity_clob":44552.107,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.34,"best_ask":0.35,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":-0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.36,"Celtic FC 0 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.06,"Celtic FC 0 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.08,"Celtic FC 0 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.055,"Celtic FC 0 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0295,"Celtic FC 0 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.012,"Celtic FC 0 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.009,"Celtic FC 1 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.07,"Celtic FC 1 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.125,"Celtic FC 1 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.09,"Celtic FC 1 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.041,"Celtic FC 1 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.016,"Celtic FC 1 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.009,"Celtic FC 2 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0485,"Celtic FC 2 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.085,"Celtic FC 2 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.07,"Celtic FC 2 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.032,"Celtic FC 2 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0125,"Celtic FC 2 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.01,"Celtic FC 3 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.025,"Celtic FC 3 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0365,"Celtic FC 3 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0285,"Celtic FC 3 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.016,"Celtic FC 3 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0055,"Celtic FC 3 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.165,"Celtic FC 4 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0115,"Celtic FC 4 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.014,"Celtic FC 4 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.012,"Celtic FC 4 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0055,"Celtic FC 4 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0345,"Celtic FC 4 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.365,"Celtic FC 5 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo":0.01,"Celtic FC 5 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo":0.0085,"Celtic FC 5 - 2 RC Celta de Vigo":0.01,"Celtic FC 5 - 3 RC Celta de Vigo":0.235,"Celtic FC 5 - 4 RC Celta de Vigo":0.245,"Celtic FC 5 - 5 RC Celta de Vigo":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792658191,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#e5254e"},"venue":{"name":"Celtic Park","city":"Glasgow","capacity":60411},"pulled":[],"published":[]}