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call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.009,"defence":0.02,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"away":{"attack":-0.062,"defence":0.009,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"sample":0.8333579865432654,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.4,"shots":15.5,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.316,"finishing_vs_xg":1.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":56.8,"shots":11.9,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.301,"finishing_vs_xg":0.19},"possession_gap":-7.4},"strength":0.294,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bournemouth have scored 13 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"126 yellow cards in this referee's last 30 games, where 118 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":30,"yellows_per_match":4.2,"reds_per_match":0.233,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":1.07,"red_ratio":1.16},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":15.3,"temperature_c":15,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"AC Milan are the side doing the right things underneath the results. AC Milan have had most of the ball in seven of their last eight games, and they turn it into chances. As for the other side, Bournemouth have conceded 14 in their last eight from chances that would usually cost about 10. They have been punished for very little. If that carries on, AC Milan should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5452,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601197,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":2,"home_team":"Bournemouth","away_team_id":63,"away_team":"AC Milan","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":46.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4639,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601197,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Bournemouth","away_team":"AC Milan","polymarket_event_id":"1160553","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":1033.797516,"volume_1wk":1727.801891,"volume_1mo":1727.801891,"volume_1yr":1727.801891,"open_interest":3720.546152,"liquidity_clob":123110.1968,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.48,"best_ask":0.49,"change_1d":0.02,"change_1wk":-0.025,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.37,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 0 AC Milan":0.0565,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 1 AC Milan":0.065,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 2 AC Milan":0.0365,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 AC Milan":0.0155,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 4 AC Milan":0.006,"AFC Bournemouth 0 - 5 AC Milan":0.008,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 0 AC Milan":0.09,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 AC Milan":0.12,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 AC Milan":0.07,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 3 AC Milan":0.027,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 4 AC Milan":0.01,"AFC Bournemouth 1 - 5 AC Milan":0.0075,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 0 AC Milan":0.075,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 1 AC Milan":0.095,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 2 AC Milan":0.065,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 3 AC Milan":0.024,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 4 AC Milan":0.0095,"AFC Bournemouth 2 - 5 AC Milan":0.007,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 0 AC Milan":0.04,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 1 AC Milan":0.055,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 2 AC Milan":0.035,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 3 AC Milan":0.0135,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 4 AC Milan":0.0055,"AFC Bournemouth 3 - 5 AC Milan":0.335,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 0 AC Milan":0.014,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 1 AC Milan":0.017,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 2 AC Milan":0.012,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 3 AC Milan":0.0085,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 4 AC Milan":0.031,"AFC Bournemouth 4 - 5 AC Milan":0.125,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 0 AC Milan":0.0095,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 1 AC Milan":0.0105,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 2 AC Milan":0.0085,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 3 AC Milan":0.25,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 4 AC Milan":0.125,"AFC Bournemouth 5 - 5 AC Milan":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792658211,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#bf1216","away":"#ca1022"},"venue":{"name":"Vitality Stadium","city":"Bournemouth","capacity":11307},"pulled":[],"published":[]}