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Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.022,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Takehiro Tomiyasu","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.012,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Chadi Riad","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.168,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.75,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vincenzo Italiano has 26 matches in charge at Beşiktaş JK, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Vincenzo Italiano","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":439,"ppm":1.96,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pierre Sage has 23 matches in charge at Crystal Palace, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pierre Sage","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Beşiktaş JK come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0833333333333335,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crystal Palace come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.25,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.8387924563488157 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.07,"defence":0.12,"effective_matches":5,"shrunk":0.62},"away":{"attack":0.088,"defence":0.047,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"sample":0.8387924563488157,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Beşiktaş JK average 15 points more possession than Crystal Palace, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":62.3,"shots":17.6,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":7,"corners_per_shot":0.397,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.7,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.138,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.338,"finishing_vs_xg":0.12},"possession_gap":14.7},"strength":0.587,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Beşiktaş JK are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crystal Palace are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"150 yellow cards in this referee's last 50 games, where 197 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":50,"yellows_per_match":3,"reds_per_match":0.14,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.76,"red_ratio":0.7},"strength":0.214,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-5.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.4,"temperature_c":20,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3987980723381244},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Beşiktaş JK. At home, Beşiktaş JK have made the better chances in all of their last five home games. As for the other side, Crystal Palace have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. And away from home, they have been out-created in three of their last four away games. This is where it is decided: Beşiktaş JK make the better chances almost every week, and Crystal Palace have been out-created in most of their recent games.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5466,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":601195,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":196,"home_team":"Beşiktaş JK","away_team_id":14,"away_team":"Crystal Palace","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4486,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601195,"event_date":"2026-10-22T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Beşiktaş JK","away_team":"Crystal Palace","polymarket_event_id":"1160559","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":6785.319562000001,"volume_1wk":7362.154418,"volume_1mo":7362.154418,"volume_1yr":7362.154418,"open_interest":9125.843196,"liquidity_clob":68204.6285,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.45,"best_ask":0.46,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":0.17,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.21,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.0385,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.055,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.0385,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.0185,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.0095,"Beşiktaş JK 0 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.012,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.065,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.11,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.07,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.033,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.0125,"Beşiktaş JK 1 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.013,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.06,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.09,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.075,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.0325,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.0125,"Beşiktaş JK 2 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.0125,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.036,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.053,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.04,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.02,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.0095,"Beşiktaş JK 3 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.335,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.015,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.0195,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.016,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.0105,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.033,"Beşiktaş JK 4 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.375,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 0 Crystal Palace FC":0.01,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 1 Crystal Palace FC":0.012,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 2 Crystal Palace FC":0.01,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 3 Crystal Palace FC":0.175,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 4 Crystal Palace FC":0.245,"Beşiktaş JK 5 - 5 Crystal Palace FC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T05:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792658211,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d51111","away":"#0d5aa3"},"venue":{"name":"Tüpraş Stadyumu","city":"Istanbul","capacity":42684},"pulled":[],"published":[]}