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evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":60,"shots":18.8,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":6.9,"corners_per_shot":0.369,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":16.6,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.356,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":7.6},"strength":0.305,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Benfica have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"38 yellow cards in this referee's last 7 games, where 28 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 7 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":7,"yellows_per_match":5.43,"reds_per_match":0.143,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.37,"red_ratio":0.85,"sample":7,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań travel 2442 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":2442},"strength":0.328,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.5,"temperature_c":16,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6851,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601191,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":37,"home_team":"Benfica","away_team_id":375,"away_team":"Lech Poznań","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":83.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.8308,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601191,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Benfica","away_team":"Lech Poznań","polymarket_event_id":"1241805","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":7312.109649999999,"volume_1wk":12903.088562,"volume_1mo":14048.75872,"volume_1yr":14048.75872,"open_interest":14157.963848,"liquidity_clob":56832.5067,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.84,"best_ask":0.85,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":0.025,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.05,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.019,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0125,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.005,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.002,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.008,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0085,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.065,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.045,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0155,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.004,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0065,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0085,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.095,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.075,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.03,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0065,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.008,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0085,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.105,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.08,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.031,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.008,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.008,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.167,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.09,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.057,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.022,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.006,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.0345,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.165,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań":0.057,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 1 KKS Lech Poznań":0.039,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 2 KKS Lech Poznań":0.017,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 3 KKS Lech Poznań":0.1425,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 4 KKS Lech Poznań":0.141,"Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5 - 5 KKS Lech Poznań":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T08:57:36Z"}},"computed_at":1793887466,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Benfica will dominate this game from start to finish. The hosts sit at the top of the table because they outwork opponents to create superior openings. In seven of their last ten outings, they carved out better opportunities than the opposition. This dominance is even more striking at home, where they have produced the higher quality of openings in each of their previous five fixtures. They typically dictate play with the ball in six of their last eight matches, successfully converting that possession into scoring threats. The visitors are hindered by the loss of their main striker to a muscle injury, losing his four goals. Vangelis Pavlidis is the deciding factor after scoring in four straight games.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań are without 6 players, and Mikael Ishak is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.125,"combined_importance":0.186,"players":[{"player":"Mikael Ishak","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.101,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4,"tags":["chance_creator","in_form"]},{"player":"Allahyar Sayyadmanesh","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.085,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Alex Douglas","role":"DEF","reason":"Broken Rib","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Ali Gholizadeh","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"João Moutinho","role":"DEF","reason":"Broken Foot","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Wojciech Mońka","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.465,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Benfica are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.036,"combined_importance":0.071,"players":[{"player":"Leandro Barreiro","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.036,"importance":0.048,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Enzo Barrenechea","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.015,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Daniel Banjaqui","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.008,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.178,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lech Poznań travel 2442 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":2442},"strength":0.328,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":60,"shots":18.8,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":6.9,"corners_per_shot":0.369,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":16.6,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.356,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":7.6},"strength":0.305,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#c29010","away":"#0c5192"},"venue":{"name":"Estádio da Luz","city":"Lisbon","capacity":68100},"pulled":[],"published":[]}