{"id":601187,"league_id":8,"league":"Europa League","kickoff":1789585200,"home":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","away":"NK Celje","home_id":85,"away_id":406,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,0],"colors":{"home":"#ec1313","away":"#1e2f61"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.04,"bookmaker":"888Sport","model_prob":0.93,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.04. 2.11 against 1.09. NK Celje's route to a result runs through a clean sheet the numbers do not expect them to keep. In the same direction, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are 4 games into a new regime, and the early bounce has not yet reverted. Call it 93%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.111,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.901,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.11. Both sides are modelled to score: 2.11 against 1.09, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. Compounding it, recent results for Bayer 04 Leverkusen were collected under someone else's instructions, which is the whole reason to discount them. On that evidence, a winner rather than a draw. Call it 90%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.08,"bookmaker":"888Sport","model_prob":0.881,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.08. Both sides are modelled to score: 2.11 against 1.09, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. And Bayer 04 Leverkusen are early enough into a new regime that recent form describes a different team. 88% likely, returning 8p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","model_prob":0.847,"narrative":"Home win at 1.10. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are materially the stronger side on expected goals, 2.11 to 1.09, and the market has not argued with it. On top of that, recent results for Bayer 04 Leverkusen were collected under someone else's instructions, which is the whole reason to discount them. Put together, the expectation is Bayer 04 Leverkusen winning it. Call it 85%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}}]}