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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"47 yellow cards in this referee's last 10 games, where 40 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 10 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":10,"yellows_per_match":4.7,"reds_per_match":0.1,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.19,"red_ratio":0.59,"sample":10,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille travel 874 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":874},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.1,"temperature_c":4,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Look past the results and this is Bayer 04 Leverkusen's game. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have created the better chances in seven of their last ten games. On top of that, at home, they have made the better chances in four of their last five home games. Meanwhile, Olympique de Marseille have been out-created in eight of their last ten games. If that carries on, Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6857,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601185,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":85,"home_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","away_team_id":98,"away_team":"Olympique de Marseille","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":70,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7003,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601185,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","away_team":"Olympique de Marseille","polymarket_event_id":"1241797","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":7128.903684999999,"volume_1wk":9631.886419,"volume_1mo":9795.820844,"volume_1yr":9795.820844,"open_interest":10265.806667,"liquidity_clob":172796.8829,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.74,"best_ask":0.75,"change_1d":0.04,"change_1wk":0.055,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.12,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.026,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.0225,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.0115,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.004,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.0085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.07,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.065,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.0305,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.01,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.009,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.0085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.095,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.095,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.0455,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.0135,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.0085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.085,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.04,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.013,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.009,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.0765,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.0595,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.055,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.025,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.008,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0345,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.0405,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.0325,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.03,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.0125,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.079,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0405,"Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T12:57:32Z"}},"computed_at":1793887740,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ec1313","away":null},"venue":{"name":"BayArena","city":"Leverkusen","capacity":30210},"pulled":[],"published":[]}