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plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Luciano Spalletti","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":214,"ppm":1.9,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AZ Alkmaar come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juventus come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.010416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.5168925179746937 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.089,"defence":0.06,"effective_matches":2.7,"shrunk":0.75},"away":{"attack":0.204,"defence":0.036,"effective_matches":2.5,"shrunk":0.76},"sample":2.5168925179746937,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":58.9,"shots":16.2,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":6.8,"corners_per_shot":0.418,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.32},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":56.3,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.446,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":2.7},"strength":0.107,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AZ Alkmaar have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juventus are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"210 yellow cards in this referee's last 45 games, where 178 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":45,"yellows_per_match":4.67,"reds_per_match":0.2,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.18,"red_ratio":1.19},"strength":0.161,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.6,"temperature_c":10,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"The results only tell half of this one, and the other half is all AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar have had most of the ball in six of their last eight games, and they turn it into chances. Meanwhile, Juventus shoot plenty but from poor positions: 22 on target from 88 shots in their last six. That is the pattern to trust here, and it favours AZ Alkmaar.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6848,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":601181,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":180,"home_team":"AZ Alkmaar","away_team_id":73,"away_team":"Juventus","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":46.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4631,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601181,"event_date":"2026-11-05T20:00:00Z","home_team":"AZ Alkmaar","away_team":"Juventus","polymarket_event_id":"1241806","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":3934.158446,"volume_1wk":4211.311657,"volume_1mo":4211.311657,"volume_1yr":4211.311657,"open_interest":6215.191610000001,"liquidity_clob":215443.2456,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.24,"best_ask":0.25,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":-0.01,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.0395,"AZ 0 - 0 Juventus FC":0.065,"AZ 0 - 1 Juventus FC":0.1,"AZ 0 - 2 Juventus FC":0.085,"AZ 0 - 3 Juventus FC":0.045,"AZ 0 - 4 Juventus FC":0.0195,"AZ 0 - 5 Juventus FC":0.0095,"AZ 1 - 0 Juventus FC":0.06,"AZ 1 - 1 Juventus FC":0.115,"AZ 1 - 2 Juventus FC":0.1,"AZ 1 - 3 Juventus FC":0.0535,"AZ 1 - 4 Juventus FC":0.02,"AZ 1 - 5 Juventus FC":0.0105,"AZ 2 - 0 Juventus FC":0.034,"AZ 2 - 1 Juventus FC":0.065,"AZ 2 - 2 Juventus FC":0.065,"AZ 2 - 3 Juventus FC":0.032,"AZ 2 - 4 Juventus FC":0.012,"AZ 2 - 5 Juventus FC":0.008,"AZ 3 - 0 Juventus FC":0.0135,"AZ 3 - 1 Juventus FC":0.0225,"AZ 3 - 2 Juventus FC":0.0215,"AZ 3 - 3 Juventus FC":0.013,"AZ 3 - 4 Juventus FC":0.0075,"AZ 3 - 5 Juventus FC":0.055,"AZ 4 - 0 Juventus FC":0.0095,"AZ 4 - 1 Juventus FC":0.01,"AZ 4 - 2 Juventus FC":0.0085,"AZ 4 - 3 Juventus FC":0.004,"AZ 4 - 4 Juventus FC":0.0345,"AZ 4 - 5 Juventus FC":0.0405,"AZ 5 - 0 Juventus FC":0.0085,"AZ 5 - 1 Juventus FC":0.0085,"AZ 5 - 2 Juventus FC":0.0085,"AZ 5 - 3 Juventus FC":0.045,"AZ 5 - 4 Juventus FC":0.061,"AZ 5 - 5 Juventus FC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T12:57:32Z"}},"computed_at":1793887740,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ca1517","away":"#404040"},"venue":{"name":"AFAS Stadion","city":"Alkmaar","capacity":19500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}