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out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.047,"defence":0.014,"effective_matches":2.5,"shrunk":0.76},"away":{"attack":0.103,"defence":0.09,"effective_matches":8.7,"shrunk":0.48},"sample":2.5121966048979436,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan average 10 points more possession than Ferencváros TC, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Ferencváros TC work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":56.1,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.143,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":0.29},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.3,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.134,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.484,"finishing_vs_xg":0.58},"possession_gap":9.8},"strength":0.392,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ferencváros TC have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.58,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"165 yellow cards in this referee's last 41 games, where 162 would be usual in this league, and 12 reds.","evidence":{"matches":41,"yellows_per_match":4.02,"reds_per_match":0.293,"league_yellows_per_match":3.96,"league_reds_per_match":0.168,"yellow_ratio":1.02,"red_ratio":1.74},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.1,"temperature_c":13,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23270972850407243},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6883,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":601174,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":63,"home_team":"AC Milan","away_team_id":143,"away_team":"Ferencváros TC","league_id":8,"league_name":"Europa League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":70.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7045,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601174,"event_date":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","home_team":"AC Milan","away_team":"Ferencváros TC","polymarket_event_id":"1236487","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":29393.957545,"volume_1wk":36806.541284,"volume_1mo":36810.622884,"volume_1yr":36810.622884,"open_interest":35114.93223600001,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-05T10:57:31Z"}},"computed_at":1793887464,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Ferencváros will punish a stretched Milan side in this Europa League fixture. While Milan have won four of their last six, their recent performances show a worrying decline in creativity and defensive stability. They are now struggling to generate meaningful chances while inviting far too much pressure. With a threadbare backline and significant midfield gaps, they lack the engine to protect their goal. Conversely, the visitors arrive in excellent form, winning five of their last six matches. Kristoffer Zachariassen is the key threat here, as his clinical touch has yielded three goals in his last four outings. He will exploit the space left by a depleted Milan defense, leaving the hosts unable to secure a victory.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are without 7 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":7,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.146,"players":[{"player":"Mario Gila","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.071,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Ruben Loftus-Cheek","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.038,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13},{"player":"Fikayo Tomori","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.033,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Matteo Gabbia","role":"DEF","reason":"Tendon Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Samuel Chukwueze","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13},{"player":"Strahinja Pavlović","role":"DEF","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Pietro Terracciano","role":"GK","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4}]},"strength":0.365,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan average 10 points more possession than Ferencváros TC, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Ferencváros TC work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":56.1,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.143,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":0.29},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.3,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.134,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.484,"finishing_vs_xg":0.58},"possession_gap":9.8},"strength":0.392,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.505,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.495,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Balazs Borbely is 12 games into the job at Ferencváros TC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Balazs Borbely","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":120,"ppm":2.42,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#ca1022","away":"#a99219"},"venue":{"name":"San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza","city":"Milano","capacity":75817},"pulled":[],"published":[]}