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This play fails only if one side completely shuts down the other and records a clean sheet.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris Saint-Germain are without 3 players, and Ousmane Dembélé and Marquinhos are real losses.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.214,"combined_importance":0.45,"players":[{"player":"Ousmane Dembélé","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.214,"importance":0.26,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer","in_form"]},{"player":"Marquinhos","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.109,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Khvicha Kvaratskhelia","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.081,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.225,"players":[{"player":"Gerard Moreno","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.083,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Ilias Akhomach","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.058,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Juan Foyth","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.033,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Nathan-Dylan Saliba","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.028,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Alassane Diatta","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.022,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.561,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Villarreal have made four changes from the side expected, with Sergi Cardona, Pau Navarro and Alberto Moleiro out of the eleven. Paris Saint-Germain have made three changes from the side expected, with Warren Zaïre-Emery, Mika Godts and Ferran Torres out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":4,"out":["Sergi Cardona","Pau Navarro","Alberto Moleiro","Georges Mikautadze"],"in":["Santiago Mouriño","Carlos Romero","Carlos Maciá","Nicolas Pépé"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Warren Zaïre-Emery","Mika Godts","Ferran Torres"],"in":["João Neves","Senny Mayulu","Désiré Doué"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris Saint-Germain have taken 3.00 points a game from their last 6 (6W 0D 0L), scoring 3.5 and conceding 1.2, and 3.00 a game on the road.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":3,"record":"6-0-0","goals_for":3.5,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"won 6","sequence":"WWWWWW","venue_ppg":3},"strength":0.7,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"200 yellow cards in this referee's last 47 games, where 131 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.","evidence":{"matches":47,"yellows_per_match":4.26,"reds_per_match":0.277,"league_yellows_per_match":2.78,"league_reds_per_match":0.171,"yellow_ratio":1.53,"red_ratio":1.62},"strength":0.475,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":11.9}]},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Since opening, AWAY has drifted 5.3% since the market opened.","evidence":{"moves":[{"outcome":"AWAY","move_pct":-5.3,"direction":"DRIFTING"},{"outcome":"HOME","move_pct":4.7,"direction":"SHORTENING"},{"outcome":"DRAW","move_pct":2.1,"direction":"SHORTENING"}]},"strength":0.263,"moves":[]}]}],"pass_reason":null,"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6753,"created_at":"2026-10-28T02:15:15Z","event":{"id":601093,"event_date":"2026-11-03T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":41,"home_team":"Villarreal","away_team_id":114,"away_team":"Paris Saint-Germain","league_id":7,"league_name":"Champions League"},"markets":{"match_result":{"prob_home":21.2,"prob_draw":20.9,"prob_away":57.8,"predicted":"A"},"expected_goals":{"home":1.73,"away":1.96},"over_under":{"prob_over_15":86.9,"prob_over_25":70.9,"prob_over_35":50.3},"btts":{"prob_yes":67.6},"score":{"most_likely":"1-1"},"draw_no_bet":{"prob_home":43},"corners":{"prob_over_85":60,"prob_over_95":48.2,"prob_over_105":36.6}},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":57.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5783,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":601093,"event_date":"2026-11-03T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Villarreal","away_team":"Paris Saint-Germain","polymarket_event_id":"1230935","markets":{"1x2":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"btts":{"yes":0.405,"no":0.595},"over_under":{"over_15":0.35,"under_15":0.65,"over_25":0.135,"under_25":0.865,"over_35":0.495,"under_35":0.505,"over_45":0.26,"under_45":0.74},"halftime":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"handicap":{"home_minus_15":0.085,"away_minus_15":0.335,"home_minus_25":0.0295,"away_minus_25":0.175}},"liquidity":{"volume_24hr":265.188841,"volume_1wk":265.188841,"volume_1mo":265.188841,"volume_1yr":265.188841,"open_interest":265.18884099999997,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-03T14:27:35Z"}},"computed_at":1793735609,"report":{"fetched_at":1793748586,"ht":null,"attendance":null,"highlights":[],"events":[],"players":[],"stats":null,"lineups":null},"colors":{"home":"#0b5282","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de la Ceramica","city":"Villarreal","capacity":23500},"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"btts","outcome":"yes","line":null,"odds":1.44,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.7057969058046536,"narrative":"Paris Saint-Germain will dominate possession and dictate the tempo despite missing their primary creative force. While they have controlled most of the ball in 6 of their last 8 games, losing their top scorer and chief playmaker for several weeks leaves a void in their final output. Villarreal arrive with an depleted squad, struggling to field their usual midfield and attacking cohesion. With the visitors winning 6 of their last 6 games, their top-of-the-table form makes them heavy favorites to control the game. However, the lack of key personnel at the back for both sides ensures the defensive line will be tested by whoever finds space.","why":"Paris Saint-Germain create high-quality chances when they hold the ball, yet missing their main goal-scorer leaves them vulnerable on the break. Villarreal have won 3 of their last 6 and retain enough threat to exploit the absences in the visiting defense. Because both sides have gaps at the back, we anticipate goals at both ends at odds of 1.44. This play fails only if one side completely shuts down the other and records a clean sheet.","result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":"busier","expected_total":3.74,"actual_total":6,"market":"held","opening_odds":1.42,"closing_odds":1.44,"line":"More happened than we allowed for, which is the risk we named and the one that came in.","decided":[]}}]}