{"id":601011,"league_id":32,"league":"Copa Libertadores","kickoff":1789691400,"home":"Flamengo","away":"Independiente del Valle","home_id":160,"away_id":793,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,1],"colors":{"home":"#c0271e","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.09,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.877,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.09. Flamengo are materially the stronger side on expected goals, 1.79 to 0.70, and the market has not argued with it. What the confidence number does not see: 3 matches in a fortnight has left Flamengo running on reserves, and pressing is the first thing to go. 88% on our numbers, 1.09 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.867557715674362,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.10. Flamengo project to score 2.6 times what Independiente del Valle manage. Games that one-sided on paper usually are. The reservation, and it is a real one: 4,568 km of travel sits between Independiente del Valle and kick-off, and away form flatters nobody after that. On that evidence, Flamengo coming out on top if there is a winner. We make it 87% at 1.10. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"PUSH","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"refunded","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It settled level, so the stake came back."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.808,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.18. 1.80 expected for Flamengo, 0.70 for Independiente del Valle — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. It is not a clean case: 4,568 km of travel sits between Independiente del Valle and kick-off, and away form flatters nobody after that. Which is why we land on a winner rather than a draw. That puts it at 81%, priced 1.18 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}}]}