{"id":588280,"league_id":91,"league":"National League","kickoff":1793389500,"home":"AFC Fylde","away":"Hornchurch","home_id":4103,"away_id":4722,"venue_id":2714,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.546,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.73,1.33],"read":{"text":"AFC Fylde to edge it, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"Passing on AFC Fylde v Hornchurch. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."}],"lambda_home":1.7268860291285668,"lambda_away":1.334256300668019,"corner_rate":9.82,"card_rate":0.116,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.395,"home":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":68138,"name":"Patrick Boyes","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":79620,"name":"Aaron Drewe","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":68135,"name":"Corey Whelan","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":68134,"name":"Max Taylor","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":68128,"name":"Luca Thomas","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":68131,"name":"Christopher Merrie","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":116135,"name":"Harvey Broad","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":68129,"name":"Danny Mayor","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42670,"name":"Theo Upton","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":68130,"name":"Tom Whelan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":30006,"name":"Millar Matthews-Lewis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":91567,"name":"Jack Morris","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":46266,"name":"Greg Olley","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":46409,"name":"Will Lancaster","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":68132,"name":"Ethan Mitchell","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":33934,"name":"Luke Butterfield","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":68137,"name":"Zac Jones","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":68127,"name":"Cedric Main","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":30016,"name":"Luke McCormick","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":77625,"name":"George Pickford","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":34166,"name":"Kyrell Malcolm","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":45754,"name":"Dylan  Allen-Hadley","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":185419,"name":"Want Lancaster","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.432},"away":{"formation":"3-5-2","players":[{"id":82400,"name":"Arthur Nasta","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":43723,"name":"Ryan Inniss","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":43367,"name":"Tom Dallison","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":34225,"name":"Jack Powell","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":86546,"name":"Frankie Edwards","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":36118,"name":"Aaron Rowe","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":82391,"name":"Charlie Pegrum","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":82394,"name":"Tom Wraight","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":45582,"name":"Alfie Massey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":82390,"name":"Henry Hearn","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":82393,"name":"Henry Sandat","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":45575,"name":"Josh Walker","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":82399,"name":"Rhys Byrne","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":82389,"name":"Angelo Balanta","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":56610,"name":"Dominic Poleon","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":55116,"name":"Nathan Ferguson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":82395,"name":"William Greenidge","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":92869,"name":"Asher Yearwood","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":43336,"name":"Jack Baldwin","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":88888,"name":"Miles Bracking","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":82397,"name":"Sam Ling","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":82392,"name":"Myles Weston","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":35367,"name":"Joe Kizzi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.395},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":68138,"name":"Patrick Boyes","side":"home"},{"id":79620,"name":"Aaron Drewe","side":"home"},{"id":68135,"name":"Corey Whelan","side":"home"},{"id":68134,"name":"Max Taylor","side":"home"},{"id":68128,"name":"Luca Thomas","side":"home"},{"id":68131,"name":"Christopher Merrie","side":"home"},{"id":116135,"name":"Harvey Broad","side":"home"},{"id":68129,"name":"Danny Mayor","side":"home"},{"id":42670,"name":"Theo Upton","side":"home"},{"id":68130,"name":"Tom Whelan","side":"home"},{"id":30006,"name":"Millar Matthews-Lewis","side":"home"},{"id":91567,"name":"Jack Morris","side":"home"},{"id":46266,"name":"Greg Olley","side":"home"},{"id":46409,"name":"Will Lancaster","side":"home"},{"id":68132,"name":"Ethan Mitchell","side":"home"},{"id":33934,"name":"Luke Butterfield","side":"home"},{"id":68137,"name":"Zac Jones","side":"home"},{"id":68127,"name":"Cedric Main","side":"home"},{"id":30016,"name":"Luke McCormick","side":"home"},{"id":77625,"name":"George Pickford","side":"home"},{"id":34166,"name":"Kyrell Malcolm","side":"home"},{"id":45754,"name":"Dylan  Allen-Hadley","side":"home"},{"id":185419,"name":"Want Lancaster","side":"home"},{"id":208495,"name":"Max Taylor","side":"home"},{"id":185420,"name":"Alex Healy-Byrne","side":"home"},{"id":93945,"name":"Ben Jackson","side":"home"},{"id":68126,"name":"Danny Ormerod","side":"home"},{"id":33936,"name":"Adam Lewis","side":"home"},{"id":82400,"name":"Arthur Nasta","side":"away"},{"id":43723,"name":"Ryan Inniss","side":"away"},{"id":43367,"name":"Tom Dallison","side":"away"},{"id":34225,"name":"Jack Powell","side":"away"},{"id":86546,"name":"Frankie Edwards","side":"away"},{"id":36118,"name":"Aaron Rowe","side":"away"},{"id":82391,"name":"Charlie Pegrum","side":"away"},{"id":82394,"name":"Tom Wraight","side":"away"},{"id":45582,"name":"Alfie Massey","side":"away"},{"id":82390,"name":"Henry Hearn","side":"away"},{"id":82393,"name":"Henry Sandat","side":"away"},{"id":45575,"name":"Josh Walker","side":"away"},{"id":82399,"name":"Rhys Byrne","side":"away"},{"id":82389,"name":"Angelo Balanta","side":"away"},{"id":56610,"name":"Dominic Poleon","side":"away"},{"id":55116,"name":"Nathan Ferguson","side":"away"},{"id":82395,"name":"William Greenidge","side":"away"},{"id":92869,"name":"Asher Yearwood","side":"away"},{"id":43336,"name":"Jack Baldwin","side":"away"},{"id":88888,"name":"Miles Bracking","side":"away"},{"id":82397,"name":"Sam Ling","side":"away"},{"id":82392,"name":"Myles Weston","side":"away"},{"id":35367,"name":"Joe Kizzi","side":"away"},{"id":217420,"name":"McKnight","side":"away"},{"id":217419,"name":"Sagaf","side":"away"},{"id":36521,"name":"Makai Welch","side":"away"},{"id":217418,"name":"Maxwell McKnight","side":"away"},{"id":82388,"name":"George Alexander","side":"away"},{"id":33771,"name":"Ryan Loft","side":"away"},{"id":82398,"name":"Michael Jordan","side":"away"},{"id":58509,"name":"Mo Sagaf","side":"away"},{"id":147457,"name":"Bobby Kelman","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":68128,"name":"Luca Thomas","side":"home","team":"AFC Fylde","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":30006,"name":"Millar Matthews-Lewis","side":"home","team":"AFC Fylde","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":null,"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":35367,"name":"Joe Kizzi","side":"away","team":"Hornchurch","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":24,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Kidderminster Harriers","kickoff":1786197600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.015,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":82390,"name":"Henry Hearn","side":"away","team":"Hornchurch","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":24,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Barrow AFC","kickoff":1786802400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.011,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":4103,"away":4722},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":3},"below":{"w":3,"d":0,"l":1}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":5},"below":{"w":3,"d":0,"l":2}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":2193,"name":"Craig Mahon","vs":null},"away":{"id":2784,"name":"Daryl McMahon","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":42661,"name":"Matt Rush","goals":9,"rank":1},{"id":63492,"name":"Johl Powell","goals":8,"rank":2},{"id":34144,"name":"John Marquis","goals":8,"rank":3},{"id":74427,"name":"Kieren Donnelly","goals":8,"rank":4},{"id":43323,"name":"Aaron Blair","goals":7,"rank":5},{"id":122419,"name":"Razzaq Coleman De-Graft","goals":7,"rank":6},{"id":103739,"name":"Ben Tollitt","goals":6,"rank":7},{"id":33820,"name":"Ben Whitfield","goals":6,"rank":8},{"id":45587,"name":"Leon Chambers-Parillon","goals":6,"rank":9},{"id":43047,"name":"Lewis Walker","goals":6,"rank":10},{"id":68128,"name":"Luca Thomas","goals":6,"rank":11},{"id":30016,"name":"Luke McCormick","goals":6,"rank":12},{"id":34076,"name":"Promise Omochere","goals":6,"rank":13},{"id":34281,"name":"Zak Brunt","goals":6,"rank":14},{"id":35745,"name":"Bailey Hobson","goals":5,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 16","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":4103,"position":7,"played":15,"points":26,"goal_diff":4,"team_name":"AFC Fylde","won":8,"drawn":2,"lost":5,"goals_for":27,"goals_against":23,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":4722,"position":13,"played":15,"points":21,"goal_diff":-6,"team_name":"Hornchurch","won":7,"drawn":0,"lost":8,"goals_for":17,"goals_against":23,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":1.83,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWWLW","venue_ppg":2.25},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLWWLL","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Fylde report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hornchurch report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.395,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.605,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":26,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":11,"gap_to_europe":2},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":21,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":7},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Craig Mahon has 21 matches in charge at AFC Fylde, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Craig Mahon","matches_in_charge":21,"tenure_days":112,"ppm":1.57,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.4,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daryl McMahon has 20 matches in charge at Hornchurch, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daryl McMahon","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":102,"ppm":1.65,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Fylde come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hornchurch come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.047,"defence":-0.061,"effective_matches":12.1,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":-0.067,"defence":0.014,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; AFC Fylde work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.7,"shots":10.3,"xg_per_shot":0.185,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.548,"finishing_vs_xg":0.09},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":45.7,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.395,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.44},"possession_gap":7},"strength":0.28,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Fylde are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hornchurch have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":22.4,"temperature_c":8,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18878049705282787},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6233,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":588280,"event_date":"2026-10-30T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4103,"home_team":"AFC Fylde","away_team_id":4722,"away_team":"Hornchurch","league_id":91,"league_name":"National League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":53.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5394,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356186,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ee372a","away":"#d51211"},"venue":{"name":"Mill Farm","city":"Wesham","capacity":6000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}