{"id": 588242, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 2, "home_wins": 2, "away_goals": 4, "home_goals": 6, "away_win_rate": 0.5, "home_win_rate": 0.5, "total_matches": 4, "recent_matches": [{"away": "AFC Fylde", "date": "2025-01-28T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Southend United", "score": "2-0", "event_id": 589631, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 4103, "home_team_id": 1885}, {"away": "Southend United", "date": "2024-09-17T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "AFC Fylde", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 589331, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1885, "home_team_id": 4103}, {"away": "Southend United", "date": "2024-04-13T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "AFC Fylde", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 590448, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1885, "home_team_id": 4103}, {"away": "AFC Fylde", "date": "2023-09-23T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Southend United", "score": "1-2", "event_id": 589983, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 4103, "home_team_id": 1885}], "avg_total_goals": 2.5}, "away": "AFC Fylde", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.67, "record": "3-1-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DWWLWL", "goals_for": 1.67, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDWWLD", "goals_for": 2.83, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 1.83}}, "home": "Southend United", "pass": "Southend United v AFC Fylde is one to leave alone. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Southend United to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Southend-on-Sea", "name": "Roots Hall", "capacity": 12392}, "colors": {"away": "#ee372a", "home": "#144889"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 2, "w": 5}}, "home": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 3, "l": 2, "w": 5}}}, "teams": {"away": 4103, "home": 1885}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2193, "vs": null, "name": "Craig Mahon"}, "home": {"id": 1948, "vs": null, "name": "Kieron Dyer"}}}, "lambda": [2.12, 1.34], "league": "National League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Southend United report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "AFC Fylde report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.477, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.523}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 20, "position": 5, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": -1, "gap_to_leader": 9, "gap_to_safety": 10}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 21, "position": 3, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": -2, "gap_to_leader": 8, "gap_to_safety": 11}, "games_left": 34, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": -1}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "Kieron Dyer has 41 matches in charge at Southend United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.61, "manager": "Kieron Dyer", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 41, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.4, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Craig Mahon has 16 matches in charge at AFC Fylde, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Craig Mahon", "tenure_days": 85, "matches_in_charge": 16, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.4, "before_ppm": 0.4}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "AFC Fylde come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 3}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.059, "shrunk": 0.44, "defence": -0.053, "effective_matches": 10.1}, "home": {"attack": 0.242, "shrunk": 0.29, "defence": 0.082, "effective_matches": 19.2}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 3, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 3, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 9.7, "corners": 4.7, "matches": 12, "possession": 55.6, "xg_per_shot": 0.178, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.02, "corners_per_shot": 0.485}, "home": {"shots": 13.3, "corners": 6.3, "matches": 12, "possession": 61.6, "xg_per_shot": 0.154, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.46, "corners_per_shot": 0.473}, "possession_gap": 6}, "strength": 0.24}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Southend United have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.46}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "AFC Fylde are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.02}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 16.6, "description": null, "temperature_c": 23}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.172693061515742}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 65542, "name": "Joeseph Duncan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33940, "name": "Kyle McAdam", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45590, "name": "Ben Goodliffe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63395, "name": "Rayan Oyebade", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33920, "name": "Vontae Daley-Campbell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34013, "name": "Darren Oldaker", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45581, "name": "Oliver Coker", "side": "home"}, {"id": 100357, "name": "Ryan Colclough", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73754, "name": "Joshua Popoola", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43051, "name": "Sahid Kamara", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45595, "name": "Harry Taylor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34278, "name": "Anthony Hartigan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45584, "name": "Sam Austin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42784, "name": "Jack Sims", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33902, "name": "Daniel Cox", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63394, "name": "Lewys Twamley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34076, "name": "Promise Omochere", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43046, "name": "Zavier Massiah-Edwards", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33708, "name": "Tommy Backwell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 6320, "name": "Ephraim Yeboah", "side": "home"}, {"id": 215119, "name": "Finley Woodham", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93162, "name": "Sean Keogh", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43060, "name": "Ryan Battrum", "side": "home"}, {"id": 152468, "name": "Julius Nwike", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73757, "name": "Jack Stone", "side": "home"}, {"id": 215944, "name": "Finley Woodham", "side": "home"}, {"id": 212997, "name": "Joseah Duncan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33690, "name": "Rico Richards", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45573, "name": "Charley Kendall", "side": "home"}, {"id": 68137, "name": "Zac Jones", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33936, "name": "Adam Lewis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68131, "name": "Christopher Merrie", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68135, "name": "Corey Whelan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79620, "name": "Aaron Drewe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68129, "name": "Danny Mayor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68130, "name": "Tom Whelan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68132, "name": "Ethan Mitchell", "side": "away"}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68127, "name": "Cedric Main", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46409, "name": "Will Lancaster", "side": "away"}, {"id": 91567, "name": "Jack Morris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68138, "name": "Patrick Boyes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46266, "name": "Greg Olley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42670, "name": "Theo Upton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68134, "name": "Max Taylor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33934, "name": "Luke Butterfield", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140152, "name": "Zack Stritch", "side": "away"}, {"id": 30006, "name": "Millar Matthews-Lewis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93945, "name": "Ben Jackson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68133, "name": "Faris Mohammed", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93947, "name": "Max Fisher", "side": "away"}, {"id": 208495, "name": "Max Taylor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 185420, "name": "Alex Healy-Byrne", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45754, "name": "Dylan  Allen-Hadley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 185419, "name": "Want Lancaster", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68126, "name": "Danny Ormerod", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4103, "home_id": 1885, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 68137, "name": "Zac Jones", "ai_score": 0.295, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 33936, "name": "Adam Lewis", "ai_score": 0.296, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 68131, "name": "Christopher Merrie", "ai_score": 0.28, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 68135, "name": "Corey Whelan", "ai_score": 0.278, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79620, "name": "Aaron Drewe", "ai_score": 0.246, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 68129, "name": "Danny Mayor", "ai_score": 0.224, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 68130, "name": "Tom Whelan", "ai_score": 0.313, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 68132, "name": "Ethan Mitchell", "ai_score": 0.302, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "ai_score": 0.225, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 68127, "name": "Cedric Main", "ai_score": 0.247, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 46409, "name": "Will Lancaster", "ai_score": 0.311, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 91567, "name": "Jack Morris", "ai_score": 0.213, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 68138, "name": "Patrick Boyes", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 46266, "name": "Greg Olley", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 42670, "name": "Theo Upton", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 68134, "name": "Max Taylor", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 33934, "name": "Luke Butterfield", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 140152, "name": "Zack Stritch", "ai_score": 0.027, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 30006, "name": "Millar Matthews-Lewis", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 93945, "name": "Ben Jackson", "ai_score": 0.02, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 68133, "name": "Faris Mohammed", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 93947, "name": "Max Fisher", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.495}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 65542, "name": "Joeseph Duncan", "ai_score": 0.245, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 33940, "name": "Kyle McAdam", "ai_score": 0.257, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45590, "name": "Ben Goodliffe", "ai_score": 0.279, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 63395, "name": "Rayan Oyebade", "ai_score": 0.27, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 33920, "name": "Vontae Daley-Campbell", "ai_score": 0.251, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 34013, "name": "Darren Oldaker", "ai_score": 0.3, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45581, "name": "Oliver Coker", "ai_score": 0.273, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 100357, "name": "Ryan Colclough", "ai_score": 0.297, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 73754, "name": "Joshua Popoola", "ai_score": 0.267, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43051, "name": "Sahid Kamara", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "ai_score": 0.203, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "ai_score": 0.253, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 45595, "name": "Harry Taylor", "ai_score": 0.219, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 34278, "name": "Anthony Hartigan", "ai_score": 0.217, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 45584, "name": "Sam Austin", "ai_score": 0.209, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 42784, "name": "Jack Sims", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 33902, "name": "Daniel Cox", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 63394, "name": "Lewys Twamley", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 34076, "name": "Promise Omochere", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 43046, "name": "Zavier Massiah-Edwards", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 33708, "name": "Tommy Backwell", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 6320, "name": "Ephraim Yeboah", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 215119, "name": "Finley Woodham", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "G", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.477}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.477, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 42661, "name": "Matt Rush", "rank": 1, "goals": 9}, {"id": 34144, "name": "John Marquis", "rank": 2, "goals": 6}, {"id": 74427, "name": "Kieren Donnelly", "rank": 3, "goals": 6}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "rank": 4, "goals": 6}, {"id": 43047, "name": "Lewis Walker", "rank": 5, "goals": 6}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "rank": 6, "goals": 6}, {"id": 30016, "name": "Luke McCormick", "rank": 7, "goals": 6}, {"id": 33820, "name": "Ben Whitfield", "rank": 8, "goals": 5}, {"id": 87453, "name": "Jacob Wakeling", "rank": 9, "goals": 5}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "rank": 10, "goals": 5}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "rank": 11, "goals": 5}, {"id": 35745, "name": "Bailey Hobson", "rank": 12, "goals": 4}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "rank": 13, "goals": 4}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "rank": 14, "goals": 4}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "rank": 15, "goals": 4}], "players": [{"id": 45587, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "role": "MID", "side": "home", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Southend United", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 16, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "CM", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "3-1", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Altrincham FC"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.013, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 45576, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Southend United", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 1, "team_games": 16, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "3-1", "assists": 1, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Altrincham FC"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.021, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 68128, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Luca Thomas", "role": "MID", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "AFC Fylde", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 68127, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Cedric Main", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "AFC Fylde", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "2-1", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786802400, "opponent": "Tamworth"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.011, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4144, "event": {"id": 588242, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "AFC Fylde", "home_team": "Southend United", "league_id": 91, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "National League", "away_team_id": 4103, "home_team_id": 1885}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5373}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 53.7}}}, "venue_id": 2540, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.102, "league_id": 91, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 6, "lost": 3, "drawn": 2, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 20, "team_id": 4103, "position": 5, "goal_diff": 6, "goals_for": 21, "team_name": "AFC Fylde", "goals_against": 15}, "home": {"won": 6, "lost": 2, "drawn": 3, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 21, "team_id": 1885, "position": 3, "goal_diff": 9, "goals_for": 26, "team_name": "Southend United", "goals_against": 17}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.636, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871140, "corner_rate": 8.91, "lambda_away": 1.3418519244197062, "lambda_home": 2.12452379683559, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 3.5 goals at 2.14, where the edge of 1.5 points does not clear the 6.8 needed against a 6.7% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 12", "lineup_status": "predicted"}