{"id": 588236, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Worthing FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2, "record": "3-3-0", "streak": "unbeaten 6", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DDWWWD", "goals_for": 1.83, "venue_ppg": 1.67, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.17}, "home": {"ppg": 0.17, "record": "0-1-5", "streak": "lost 5", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DLLLLL", "goals_for": 0.33, "venue_ppg": 0.33, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 2.83}}, "home": "Gateshead", "pass": "Nothing to take on Gateshead against Worthing FC. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Worthing FC to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Gateshead have taken 0.17 points a game from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 2.8, and 0.33 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Gateshead", "name": "Gateshead International Stadium", "capacity": 11800}, "colors": {"away": "#f04042", "home": "#999999"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 2, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 2, "w": 4}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 8, "w": 1}, "below": null}}, "teams": {"away": 5399, "home": 1881}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3527, "vs": null, "name": "Adam Hinshelwood"}, "home": {"id": 1930, "vs": null, "name": "Lee Barry Cattermole"}}}, "lambda": [1.38, 1.89], "league": "National League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Gateshead report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Worthing FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.436, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.564}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 18, "position": 8, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 1, "gap_to_leader": 11, "gap_to_safety": 8}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 4, "position": 24, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 15, "gap_to_leader": 25, "gap_to_safety": -6}, "games_left": 34, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "Lee Barry Cattermole has 41 matches in charge at Gateshead, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.07, "manager": "Lee Barry Cattermole", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 41, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.3, "before_ppm": 0.9}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Adam Hinshelwood is 11 games into the job at Worthing FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.64, "manager": "Adam Hinshelwood", "tenure_days": 57, "matches_in_charge": 11, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.7, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Gateshead come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 3}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Worthing FC come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.106, "shrunk": 0.46, "defence": -0.134, "effective_matches": 9.4}, "home": {"attack": -0.274, "shrunk": 0.3, "defence": -0.215, "effective_matches": 18.4}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 3, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 12.1, "corners": 4.6, "matches": 12, "possession": 48.3, "xg_per_shot": 0.153, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.06, "corners_per_shot": 0.376}, "home": {"shots": 6.6, "corners": 2.7, "matches": 12, "possession": 42.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.105, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.11, "corners_per_shot": 0.413}, "possession_gap": -5.9}, "strength": 0.234}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Gateshead are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.11}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Worthing FC are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.06}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 3.3, "description": null, "temperature_c": 19}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.172693061515742}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 48469, "name": "Peter Jameson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 124898, "name": "Alex Lankshear", "side": "home"}, {"id": 30032, "name": "Kyle Ferguson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79440, "name": "Jack Robinson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42744, "name": "David Ferguson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42745, "name": "Fenton John", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36227, "name": "Rocco Coyle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42746, "name": "Josh Home", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46491, "name": "Harry Chapman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48457, "name": "Billy Chadwick", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34194, "name": "Michael Spellman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79441, "name": "Luke Supyk", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48454, "name": "Ashley Boatswain", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42748, "name": "Dom Telford", "side": "home"}, {"id": 204982, "name": "David Eguaibor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28489, "name": "Lewis-Burgess Keon", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43558, "name": "Thomas Lavery", "side": "home"}, {"id": 198419, "name": "Dan Cameron", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33766, "name": "Frederick Issaka", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33841, "name": "Harrison Holgate", "side": "home"}, {"id": 120061, "name": "Jordy Hiwula", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48460, "name": "Joshua Anifowose", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45613, "name": "Martin Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79442, "name": "Robert Leach", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48467, "name": "Ben Williams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48137, "name": "Noah Phillips", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48459, "name": "Sam Bowen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48455, "name": "Lucas Lowery", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42755, "name": "Callum Bone", "side": "home"}, {"id": 119786, "name": "Alfie McCalmont", "side": "home"}, {"id": 130122, "name": "Harrison Foulkes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 66535, "name": "Cory Adjetey-Brew", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43330, "name": "Jayden Moore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115245, "name": "Joe Cook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115252, "name": "Joel Colbran", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43328, "name": "Ricky Aguiar", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115255, "name": "Jack Wadham", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46504, "name": "Ashley Nathaniel-George", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42808, "name": "Dominic Hutchinson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "side": "away"}, {"id": 154652, "name": "Ramell Carter", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115272, "name": "Sam Packham", "side": "away"}, {"id": 135376, "name": "Taylor Seymour", "side": "away"}, {"id": 119315, "name": "Harry Ransom", "side": "away"}, {"id": 186405, "name": "Owen Spicer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45573, "name": "Charley Kendall", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34078, "name": "Charlie Waller", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209769, "name": "Guillermo De La Cruz", "side": "away"}, {"id": 154655, "name": "Harvey Boddy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75811, "name": "Jordan Young", "side": "away"}, {"id": 122959, "name": "Bailey Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 7164, "name": "Emmerson Sutton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209768, "name": "Harry Ransom", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209770, "name": "Guillermo de la Cruz", "side": "away"}, {"id": 105717, "name": "George Cox", "side": "away"}, {"id": 154656, "name": "Will Tillman", "side": "away"}, {"id": 58755, "name": "Noor Husin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 154653, "name": "Matt Burgess", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42765, "name": "Tyrique Clarke", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43707, "name": "Jose Marquez", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115318, "name": "Teddy Jenks", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 5399, "home_id": 1881, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 130122, "name": "Harrison Foulkes", "ai_score": 0.258, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 66535, "name": "Cory Adjetey-Brew", "ai_score": 0.255, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43330, "name": "Jayden Moore", "ai_score": 0.308, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115245, "name": "Joe Cook", "ai_score": 0.259, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115252, "name": "Joel Colbran", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43328, "name": "Ricky Aguiar", "ai_score": 0.288, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115255, "name": "Jack Wadham", "ai_score": 0.274, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 46504, "name": "Ashley Nathaniel-George", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42808, "name": "Dominic Hutchinson", "ai_score": 0.267, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "ai_score": 0.248, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 154652, "name": "Ramell Carter", "ai_score": 0.203, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 115272, "name": "Sam Packham", "ai_score": 0.159, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 135376, "name": "Taylor Seymour", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 119315, "name": "Harry Ransom", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 186405, "name": "Owen Spicer", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 45573, "name": "Charley Kendall", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 34078, "name": "Charlie Waller", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 209769, "name": "Guillermo De La Cruz", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 154655, "name": "Harvey Boddy", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 75811, "name": "Jordan Young", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 122959, "name": "Bailey Smith", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 7164, "name": "Emmerson Sutton", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 209768, "name": "Harry Ransom", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.436}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 48469, "name": "Peter Jameson", "ai_score": 0.281, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 124898, "name": "Alex Lankshear", "ai_score": 0.337, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 30032, "name": "Kyle Ferguson", "ai_score": 0.325, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79440, "name": "Jack Robinson", "ai_score": 0.264, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42744, "name": "David Ferguson", "ai_score": 0.298, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42745, "name": "Fenton John", "ai_score": 0.244, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 36227, "name": "Rocco Coyle", "ai_score": 0.259, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42746, "name": "Josh Home", "ai_score": 0.257, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 46491, "name": "Harry Chapman", "ai_score": 0.2, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 48457, "name": "Billy Chadwick", "ai_score": 0.247, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 34194, "name": "Michael Spellman", "ai_score": 0.227, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 79441, "name": "Luke Supyk", "ai_score": 0.229, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 48454, "name": "Ashley Boatswain", "ai_score": 0.209, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 42748, "name": "Dom Telford", "ai_score": 0.175, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 204982, "name": "David Eguaibor", "ai_score": 0.04, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 28489, "name": "Lewis-Burgess Keon", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 43558, "name": "Thomas Lavery", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 198419, "name": "Dan Cameron", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 33766, "name": "Frederick Issaka", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 33841, "name": "Harrison Holgate", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 120061, "name": "Jordy Hiwula", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 48460, "name": "Joshua Anifowose", "ai_score": 0.02, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 45613, "name": "Martin Smith", "ai_score": 0.02, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-4-2-1", "confidence": 0.45}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.436, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 42661, "name": "Matt Rush", "rank": 1, "goals": 9}, {"id": 34144, "name": "John Marquis", "rank": 2, "goals": 6}, {"id": 74427, "name": "Kieren Donnelly", "rank": 3, "goals": 6}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "rank": 4, "goals": 6}, {"id": 43047, "name": "Lewis Walker", "rank": 5, "goals": 6}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "rank": 6, "goals": 6}, {"id": 30016, "name": "Luke McCormick", "rank": 7, "goals": 6}, {"id": 33820, "name": "Ben Whitfield", "rank": 8, "goals": 5}, {"id": 87453, "name": "Jacob Wakeling", "rank": 9, "goals": 5}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "rank": 10, "goals": 5}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "rank": 11, "goals": 5}, {"id": 35745, "name": "Bailey Hobson", "rank": 12, "goals": 4}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "rank": 13, "goals": 4}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "rank": 14, "goals": 4}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "rank": 15, "goals": 4}], "players": [{"id": 122419, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "role": "MID", "side": "away", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Worthing FC", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 18, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "RW", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "3-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Carlisle United"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.013, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 154652, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ramell Carter", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Worthing FC", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 18, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.002, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4143, "event": {"id": 588236, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Worthing FC", "home_team": "Gateshead", "league_id": 91, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "National League", "away_team_id": 5399, "home_team_id": 1881}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5425}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 54.2}}}, "venue_id": 1706, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.133, "league_id": 91, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 5, "lost": 3, "drawn": 3, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 18, "team_id": 5399, "position": 8, "goal_diff": 3, "goals_for": 20, "team_name": "Worthing FC", "goals_against": 17}, "home": {"won": 1, "lost": 9, "drawn": 1, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 4, "team_id": 1881, "position": 24, "goal_diff": -19, "goals_for": 6, "team_name": "Gateshead", "goals_against": 25}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.585, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871143, "corner_rate": 10.4, "lambda_away": 1.8930937310051705, "lambda_home": 1.3784995182188569, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 2.10, where the edge of 3.7 points does not clear the 6.4 needed against a 5.8% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 12", "lineup_status": "predicted"}