{"id": 588233, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Wealdstone", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.17, "record": "2-1-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLLWD", "goals_for": 1.67, "venue_ppg": 1.33, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.5}, "home": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWWW", "goals_for": 2.17, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.83}}, "home": "Barrow AFC", "pass": "Barrow AFC v Wealdstone is one to leave alone. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Barrow AFC to edge it"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Barrow AFC have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8, and 3.00 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Barrow-in-Furness", "name": "Holker Street", "capacity": 5000}, "colors": {"away": "#2669b7", "home": "#204587"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 2, "l": 4, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 2}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 3, "l": 2, "w": 3}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 1}}}, "teams": {"away": 1878, "home": 1428}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1244, "vs": null, "name": "Gary Waddock"}, "home": {"id": 1806, "vs": null, "name": "Adam Murray"}}}, "lambda": [1.82, 1.16], "league": "National League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Barrow AFC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Wealdstone report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.464, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.536}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 12, "position": 17, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 7, "gap_to_leader": 17, "gap_to_safety": 2}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 15, "position": 12, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 4, "gap_to_leader": 14, "gap_to_safety": 5}, "games_left": 34, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "Adam Murray has 40 matches in charge at Barrow AFC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.1, "manager": "Adam Murray", "tenure_days": 302, "matches_in_charge": 40, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.5, "before_ppm": 1.4}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Gary Waddock has 38 matches in charge at Wealdstone, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.26, "manager": "Gary Waddock", "tenure_days": 302, "matches_in_charge": 38, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.5, "before_ppm": 1.9}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Barrow AFC come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 3}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Wealdstone come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.012, "shrunk": 0.3, "defence": -0.068, "effective_matches": 18.4}, "home": {"attack": 0.039, "shrunk": 0.46, "defence": 0.16, "effective_matches": 9.4}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 3, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 3, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 10.7, "corners": 5, "matches": 12, "possession": 51, "xg_per_shot": 0.154, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.15, "corners_per_shot": 0.467}, "home": {"shots": 11.1, "corners": 6.7, "matches": 12, "possession": 53, "xg_per_shot": 0.139, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.03, "corners_per_shot": 0.599}, "possession_gap": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Barrow AFC are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.03}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Wealdstone are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.15}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 9.7, "description": null, "temperature_c": 17}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.172693061515742}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 34199, "name": "Benjamin Winterbottom", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43565, "name": "Thierry Latty-Fairweather", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62947, "name": "Paul Kalambayi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62948, "name": "Marcel Oakley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60935, "name": "Xavier Benjamin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34207, "name": "Scott Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 35390, "name": "MJ Williams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42934, "name": "Isaac Marriott", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42929, "name": "Oliver Crankshaw", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34212, "name": "Innes Cameron", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60754, "name": "George Walker", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62946, "name": "Daniel Amos", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34204, "name": "Ben Jackson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45738, "name": "Kennedy Digie", "side": "home"}, {"id": 35383, "name": "Rekeem Harper", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60753, "name": "Alex Reid", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46498, "name": "Keaton Ward", "side": "home"}, {"id": 138950, "name": "Dan Mooney", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36080, "name": "Mikey Lane", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148142, "name": "Seb Thompson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213652, "name": "Arian Allen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46344, "name": "Corey Edwards", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33738, "name": "Arian Allen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213653, "name": "Corey Edwards", "side": "home"}, {"id": 35393, "name": "Killian Barrett", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34205, "name": "Jack Earing", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33820, "name": "Ben Whitfield", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42803, "name": "Dante Baptiste", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42657, "name": "Joe Newton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 35835, "name": "Dion Conroy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42807, "name": "Connor McAvoy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 49495, "name": "Mason Barrett", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42810, "name": "Dylan Kadji", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46511, "name": "Aaron Henry", "side": "away"}, {"id": 49490, "name": "Jack Wells-Morrison", "side": "away"}, {"id": 186383, "name": "Wilson Waweru", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42663, "name": "Luke Norris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 37196, "name": "Dan Chesters", "side": "away"}, {"id": 87458, "name": "Kyle Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42812, "name": "Olufela Olomola", "side": "away"}, {"id": 114653, "name": "Jaydn Mundle-Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42791, "name": "Jayden Harris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43061, "name": "Aidan Francis Clarke", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42818, "name": "Endurance Johnson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42805, "name": "Jack Cook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42750, "name": "Tyrelle Newton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 114538, "name": "Amaru Kaunda", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43721, "name": "Abraham Kanu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215118, "name": "Carmichael Uchenna", "side": "away"}, {"id": 119784, "name": "Fejiri Okenabirhie", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209741, "name": "James Holden", "side": "away"}, {"id": 204937, "name": "Callum Lee", "side": "away"}, {"id": 49496, "name": "Joshua Clay", "side": "away"}, {"id": 58467, "name": "Admiral Muskwe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 88699, "name": "Arman Ghukasyan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33906, "name": "Ronan Maher", "side": "away"}, {"id": 211465, "name": "Seamus Atem", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42813, "name": "Micah Obiero", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1878, "home_id": 1428, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 42803, "name": "Dante Baptiste", "ai_score": 0.251, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 42657, "name": "Joe Newton", "ai_score": 0.234, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 35835, "name": "Dion Conroy", "ai_score": 0.284, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42807, "name": "Connor McAvoy", "ai_score": 0.277, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 49495, "name": "Mason Barrett", "ai_score": 0.255, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42810, "name": "Dylan Kadji", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 46511, "name": "Aaron Henry", "ai_score": 0.306, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 49490, "name": "Jack Wells-Morrison", "ai_score": 0.277, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 186383, "name": "Wilson Waweru", "ai_score": 0.215, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 42663, "name": "Luke Norris", "ai_score": 0.244, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 37196, "name": "Dan Chesters", "ai_score": 0.254, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 87458, "name": "Kyle Smith", "ai_score": 0.244, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42812, "name": "Olufela Olomola", "ai_score": 0.214, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 114653, "name": "Jaydn Mundle-Smith", "ai_score": 0.167, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42791, "name": "Jayden Harris", "ai_score": 0.15, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 43061, "name": "Aidan Francis Clarke", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42818, "name": "Endurance Johnson", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 42805, "name": "Jack Cook", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42750, "name": "Tyrelle Newton", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 114538, "name": "Amaru Kaunda", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 43721, "name": "Abraham Kanu", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 215118, "name": "Carmichael Uchenna", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 119784, "name": "Fejiri Okenabirhie", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "F", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-4-2-1", "confidence": 0.464}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 34199, "name": "Benjamin Winterbottom", "ai_score": 0.254, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 43565, "name": "Thierry Latty-Fairweather", "ai_score": 0.299, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 62947, "name": "Paul Kalambayi", "ai_score": 0.304, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 62948, "name": "Marcel Oakley", "ai_score": 0.265, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 60935, "name": "Xavier Benjamin", "ai_score": 0.289, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 34207, "name": "Scott Smith", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 35390, "name": "MJ Williams", "ai_score": 0.298, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42934, "name": "Isaac Marriott", "ai_score": 0.236, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42929, "name": "Oliver Crankshaw", "ai_score": 0.232, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 34212, "name": "Innes Cameron", "ai_score": 0.253, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 60754, "name": "George Walker", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 62946, "name": "Daniel Amos", "ai_score": 0.254, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 34204, "name": "Ben Jackson", "ai_score": 0.19, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 45738, "name": "Kennedy Digie", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 35383, "name": "Rekeem Harper", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 60753, "name": "Alex Reid", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 46498, "name": "Keaton Ward", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 138950, "name": "Dan Mooney", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 36080, "name": "Mikey Lane", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 148142, "name": "Seb Thompson", "ai_score": 0.025, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 213652, "name": "Arian Allen", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 46344, "name": "Corey Edwards", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 33738, "name": "Arian Allen", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.464}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.464, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 42661, "name": "Matt Rush", "rank": 1, "goals": 9}, {"id": 34144, "name": "John Marquis", "rank": 2, "goals": 6}, {"id": 74427, "name": "Kieren Donnelly", "rank": 3, "goals": 6}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "rank": 4, "goals": 6}, {"id": 43047, "name": "Lewis Walker", "rank": 5, "goals": 6}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "rank": 6, "goals": 6}, {"id": 30016, "name": "Luke McCormick", "rank": 7, "goals": 6}, {"id": 33820, "name": "Ben Whitfield", "rank": 8, "goals": 5}, {"id": 87453, "name": "Jacob Wakeling", "rank": 9, "goals": 5}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "rank": 10, "goals": 5}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "rank": 11, "goals": 5}, {"id": 35745, "name": "Bailey Hobson", "rank": 12, "goals": 4}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "rank": 13, "goals": 4}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "rank": 14, "goals": 4}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "rank": 15, "goals": 4}], "players": [{"id": 34212, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Innes Cameron", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Barrow AFC", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "1-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786802400, "opponent": "Hornchurch"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.013, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 42812, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Olufela Olomola", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Wealdstone", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 0, "assists": 0, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 0}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "2-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "AFC Fylde"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.015, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 42663, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Luke Norris", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Wealdstone", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "starts": 2, "assists": 1, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "2-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "AFC Fylde"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.036, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 186383, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Wilson Waweru", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Wealdstone", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "starts": 0, "assists": 0, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 1, "tracked_starts": 0}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4142, "event": {"id": 588233, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Wealdstone", "home_team": "Barrow AFC", "league_id": 91, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "National League", "away_team_id": 1878, "home_team_id": 1428}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4789}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 47.9}}}, "venue_id": 878, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.095, "league_id": 91, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 3, "lost": 5, "drawn": 3, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 12, "team_id": 1878, "position": 17, "goal_diff": 0, "goals_for": 16, "team_name": "Wealdstone", "goals_against": 16}, "home": {"won": 4, "lost": 4, "drawn": 3, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 15, "team_id": 1428, "position": 12, "goal_diff": 4, "goals_for": 18, "team_name": "Barrow AFC", "goals_against": 14}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.584, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871146, "corner_rate": 9.53, "lambda_away": 1.156709446807576, "lambda_home": 1.815528585976699, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was home win at 1.94, where the edge of 2.0 points does not clear the 8.1 needed against a 9.2% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 12", "lineup_status": "predicted"}