{"id": 588232, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 2, "home_wins": 1, "away_goals": 4, "home_goals": 2, "away_win_rate": 0.6666666666666666, "home_win_rate": 0.3333333333333333, "total_matches": 3, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Carlisle United", "date": "2026-03-10T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Aldershot Town", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 589029, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1882, "home_team_id": 1883}, {"away": "Aldershot Town", "date": "2025-09-13T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Carlisle United", "score": "2-0", "event_id": 588758, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1883, "home_team_id": 1882}, {"away": "Carlisle United", "date": "2011-08-30T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Aldershot Town", "score": "2-0", "event_id": 434958, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1882, "home_team_id": 1883}], "avg_total_goals": 2}, "away": "Carlisle United", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.83, "record": "1-2-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LDDLLW", "goals_for": 1.33, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.83}, "home": {"ppg": 1.67, "record": "3-1-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWDLWL", "goals_for": 1.67, "venue_ppg": 2.33, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1}}, "home": "Aldershot Town", "pass": "Nothing to take on Aldershot Town against Carlisle United. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Carlisle United to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Aldershot", "name": "Recreation Ground", "capacity": 7100}, "colors": {"away": "#1a6db5", "home": "#1b0f8d"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 3, "l": 2, "w": 2}, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 1, "w": 1}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 0, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 2, "l": 3, "w": 3}}}, "teams": {"away": 1882, "home": 1883}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"37031": {"caps": 12, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Malta"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1247, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1, "last": {"score": "2-0", "result": "W", "kickoff": 1773171900}}, "name": "Robert Elliot"}, "home": {"id": 1246, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0, "last": {"score": "0-2", "result": "L", "kickoff": 1773171900}}, "name": "Scott Davies"}}}, "lambda": [1.47, 1.58], "league": "National League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Aldershot Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Carlisle United report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.445, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.555}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 13, "position": 16, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 6, "gap_to_leader": 16, "gap_to_safety": 3}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 18, "position": 7, "games_left": 34, "gap_to_europe": 1, "gap_to_leader": 11, "gap_to_safety": 8}, "games_left": 34, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": -2}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "Scott Davies has 40 matches in charge at Aldershot Town, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Scott Davies", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 40, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 0.6}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Robert Elliot has 37 matches in charge at Carlisle United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.59, "manager": "Robert Elliot", "tenure_days": 301, "matches_in_charge": 37, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.3, "before_ppm": 2.6}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Aldershot Town come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 3}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Carlisle United come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8020833333333335, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 3}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.158, "shrunk": 0.31, "defence": 0.062, "effective_matches": 17.8}, "home": {"attack": -0.012, "shrunk": 0.3, "defence": -0.011, "effective_matches": 18.4}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 17.9, "corners": 6, "matches": 12, "possession": 55.6, "xg_per_shot": 0.13, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.4, "corners_per_shot": 0.336}, "home": {"shots": 10.9, "corners": 4.4, "matches": 12, "possession": 49.3, "xg_per_shot": 0.128, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.11, "corners_per_shot": 0.409}, "possession_gap": -6.3}, "strength": 0.252}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Aldershot Town are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.11}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Carlisle United have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.4}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 19.1, "description": null, "temperature_c": 21}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.172693061515742}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 46532, "name": "Nick Hayes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33557, "name": "Michael Stickland", "side": "home"}, {"id": 50461, "name": "Nino Adom-Malaki", "side": "home"}, {"id": 50462, "name": "Kiki Oshilaja", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60980, "name": "Hakeem Sandah", "side": "home"}, {"id": 140360, "name": "Elijah Oladunjoye", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42828, "name": "Dominic Odusanya", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29012, "name": "Jacob Borgnis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33655, "name": "Marcus Dinanga", "side": "home"}, {"id": 37031, "name": "Basil Tuma", "side": "home"}, {"id": 30013, "name": "Michee Efete", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42766, "name": "Tyrese Dyce", "side": "home"}, {"id": 52356, "name": "Kwaku Frimpong", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63566, "name": "Conor Lawless", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33987, "name": "Marcus Wyllie", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60829, "name": "Jack Matton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42906, "name": "Brody Peart", "side": "home"}, {"id": 204983, "name": "Jordan Alves", "side": "home"}, {"id": 75770, "name": "Elijah Oladunjoye", "side": "home"}, {"id": 66843, "name": "Jonathan Macaulay", "side": "home"}, {"id": 210034, "name": "Alfonso Tenconi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60981, "name": "Charlie Patmore", "side": "home"}, {"id": 102974, "name": "Ollie Harfield", "side": "home"}, {"id": 140359, "name": "Mohammed Idris Oshilaja", "side": "home"}, {"id": 211493, "name": "Alfonso Tenconi-Gradillas", "side": "home"}, {"id": 66666, "name": "John Gilbert", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42760, "name": "Adam Desbois", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42726, "name": "Cameron Harper", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48466, "name": "Bradley Nicholson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33833, "name": "Toby Mullarkey", "side": "away"}, {"id": 9084, "name": "Leonard Duru", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43716, "name": "Harvey Bunker", "side": "away"}, {"id": 63703, "name": "Miguel Azeez", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42730, "name": "Regan Linney", "side": "away"}, {"id": 87475, "name": "Jonah Lowes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42728, "name": "David Ajiboye", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34287, "name": "Ryan Galvin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42742, "name": "Kenton Richardson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42723, "name": "Josh Williams", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42724, "name": "Jack Ellis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48127, "name": "Archie Mair", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42732, "name": "Stephen Wearne", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46458, "name": "Morgan Feeney", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42734, "name": "Junior Luamba", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115318, "name": "Teddy Jenks", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42813, "name": "Micah Obiero", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42736, "name": "Callum Whelan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42733, "name": "Hayden Atkinson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48126, "name": "Bevis Mugabi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 58821, "name": "Seb Mason", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42731, "name": "Luke Armstrong", "side": "away"}, {"id": 87477, "name": "Will Rafferty", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48122, "name": "Elliot Embleton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 208702, "name": "Amaru Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42727, "name": "Harvey Macadam", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1882, "home_id": 1883, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 42760, "name": "Adam Desbois", "ai_score": 0.228, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 42726, "name": "Cameron Harper", "ai_score": 0.271, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 48466, "name": "Bradley Nicholson", "ai_score": 0.312, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 33833, "name": "Toby Mullarkey", "ai_score": 0.245, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 9084, "name": "Leonard Duru", "ai_score": 0.274, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43716, "name": "Harvey Bunker", "ai_score": 0.325, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 63703, "name": "Miguel Azeez", "ai_score": 0.25, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42730, "name": "Regan Linney", "ai_score": 0.251, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 87475, "name": "Jonah Lowes", "ai_score": 0.121, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42728, "name": "David Ajiboye", "ai_score": 0.239, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "ai_score": 0.19, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 34287, "name": "Ryan Galvin", "ai_score": 0.242, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42742, "name": "Kenton Richardson", "ai_score": 0.237, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42723, "name": "Josh Williams", "ai_score": 0.223, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42724, "name": "Jack Ellis", "ai_score": 0.222, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 48127, "name": "Archie Mair", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 42732, "name": "Stephen Wearne", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 46458, "name": "Morgan Feeney", "ai_score": 0.04, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42734, "name": "Junior Luamba", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 115318, "name": "Teddy Jenks", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 42813, "name": "Micah Obiero", "ai_score": 0.02, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 42736, "name": "Callum Whelan", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 42733, "name": "Hayden Atkinson", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.459}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 46532, "name": "Nick Hayes", "ai_score": 0.214, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 33557, "name": "Michael Stickland", "ai_score": 0.276, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 50461, "name": "Nino Adom-Malaki", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 50462, "name": "Kiki Oshilaja", "ai_score": 0.238, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 60980, "name": "Hakeem Sandah", "ai_score": 0.269, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 140360, "name": "Elijah Oladunjoye", "ai_score": 0.27, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42828, "name": "Dominic Odusanya", "ai_score": 0.286, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 29012, "name": "Jacob Borgnis", "ai_score": 0.25, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 33655, "name": "Marcus Dinanga", "ai_score": 0.196, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 37031, "name": "Basil Tuma", "ai_score": 0.268, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 30013, "name": "Michee Efete", "ai_score": 0.202, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42766, "name": "Tyrese Dyce", "ai_score": 0.214, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 52356, "name": "Kwaku Frimpong", "ai_score": 0.193, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 63566, "name": "Conor Lawless", "ai_score": 0.179, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 33987, "name": "Marcus Wyllie", "ai_score": 0.163, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 60829, "name": "Jack Matton", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 42906, "name": "Brody Peart", "ai_score": 0.045, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 204983, "name": "Jordan Alves", "ai_score": 0.035, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 75770, "name": "Elijah Oladunjoye", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 66843, "name": "Jonathan Macaulay", "ai_score": 0.03, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 210034, "name": "Alfonso Tenconi", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 60981, "name": "Charlie Patmore", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "G", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-4-3", "confidence": 0.445}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.445, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 42661, "name": "Matt Rush", "rank": 1, "goals": 9}, {"id": 34144, "name": "John Marquis", "rank": 2, "goals": 6}, {"id": 74427, "name": "Kieren Donnelly", "rank": 3, "goals": 6}, {"id": 45587, "name": "Leon Chambers-Parillon", "rank": 4, "goals": 6}, {"id": 43047, "name": "Lewis Walker", "rank": 5, "goals": 6}, {"id": 68128, "name": "Luca Thomas", "rank": 6, "goals": 6}, {"id": 30016, "name": "Luke McCormick", "rank": 7, "goals": 6}, {"id": 33820, "name": "Ben Whitfield", "rank": 8, "goals": 5}, {"id": 87453, "name": "Jacob Wakeling", "rank": 9, "goals": 5}, {"id": 122419, "name": "Razzaq Coleman De-Graft", "rank": 10, "goals": 5}, {"id": 42904, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "rank": 11, "goals": 5}, {"id": 35745, "name": "Bailey Hobson", "rank": 12, "goals": 4}, {"id": 42740, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "rank": 13, "goals": 4}, {"id": 45576, "name": "Harry Cardwell", "rank": 14, "goals": 4}, {"id": 116135, "name": "Harvey Broad", "rank": 15, "goals": 4}], "players": [{"id": 42904, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Tristan Abrahams", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Aldershot Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "starts": 0, "assists": 0, "team_games": 19, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 1, "tracked_starts": 0}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 37031, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Basil Tuma", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Aldershot Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 19, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.002, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 33655, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Marcus Dinanga", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": ["top_creator"], "team": "Aldershot Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "starts": 2, "assists": 1, "team_games": 19, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 0, "score": "1-0", "assists": 1, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Boston United"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.007, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 42740, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Georgie Kelly", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": ["top_scorer"], "team": "Carlisle United", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 2, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 15, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 2, "score": "2-3", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Worthing FC"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.034, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4132, "event": {"id": 588232, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Carlisle United", "home_team": "Aldershot Town", "league_id": 91, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "National League", "away_team_id": 1882, "home_team_id": 1883}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4654}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 46.5}}}, "venue_id": 2641, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.146, "league_id": 91, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 3, "lost": 4, "drawn": 4, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 13, "team_id": 1882, "position": 16, "goal_diff": 1, "goals_for": 20, "team_name": "Carlisle United", "goals_against": 19}, "home": {"won": 5, "lost": 3, "drawn": 3, "group": null, "played": 11, "points": 18, "team_id": 1883, "position": 7, "goal_diff": 6, "goals_for": 16, "team_name": "Aldershot Town", "goals_against": 10}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.666, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871146, "corner_rate": 9.6, "lambda_away": 1.5788764924246996, "lambda_home": 1.4719557871118927, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 1.80, where the edge of 4.2 points does not clear the 6.2 needed against a 5.4% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 12", "lineup_status": "predicted"}