{"id":580563,"league_id":89,"league":"Ligue 2","kickoff":1793386800,"home":"Metz","away":"Pau FC","home_id":111,"away_id":1659,"venue_id":109,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.605,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.59,1.39],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on Metz against Pau FC. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Pau FC have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0, and 1.50 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.58678238666964,"lambda_away":1.3940716430606699,"corner_rate":8.43,"card_rate":0.196,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":2781,"name":"Jonathan Fischer","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.811},{"id":30387,"name":"Florian Miguel","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.669},{"id":2719,"name":"Cristian Castro","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.881},{"id":40574,"name":"Jean Ruiz","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.644},{"id":8949,"name":"Bouna Sarr","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.663},{"id":2786,"name":"Jessy Deminguet","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.88},{"id":4349,"name":"Believe Munongo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.575},{"id":2796,"name":"Giorgi Abuashvili","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.794},{"id":28538,"name":"Teji Savanier","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":8897,"name":"Nathan Mbala","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.378},{"id":8847,"name":"Pape Moussa Fall","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.815},{"id":15635,"name":"Idris Mohamed","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.545},{"id":13675,"name":"Jahyann Pandore","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.475},{"id":4618,"name":"Urie-Michel Mboula","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.439},{"id":2782,"name":"Maxime Colin","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.358},{"id":149146,"name":"Abdourahmane Mbodj","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.343},{"id":4348,"name":"Pape Sy","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.309},{"id":60152,"name":"Hamza Kadamani","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":6041,"name":"Nampalys Mendy","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.269},{"id":149147,"name":"Bryan Song","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.268},{"id":76065,"name":"Abdoulaye Ba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.257},{"id":2791,"name":"Ibou Sane","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.257},{"id":2793,"name":"Alpha Touré","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.238}],"confidence":0.827},"away":{"formation":"5-3-2","players":[{"id":29227,"name":"Brice Maubleu","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.814},{"id":48596,"name":"Gaëtan Paquiez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.734},{"id":40573,"name":"Anthony Briançon","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.645},{"id":63309,"name":"Axel Bamba","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.62},{"id":40572,"name":"Tom Pouilly","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.735},{"id":27119,"name":"Mathys Tourraine","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.372},{"id":38139,"name":"Jessy Benet","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.697},{"id":26908,"name":"Lorenzo Rajot","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.566},{"id":29218,"name":"Luan Gadegbeku","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":40665,"name":"Hacène Benali","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.678},{"id":65489,"name":"Babacar Leye","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.561},{"id":63308,"name":"Cheikh Fall","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.674},{"id":114278,"name":"Axel Dodote","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.46},{"id":15626,"name":"Akim Abdallah","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.405},{"id":29763,"name":"Bilal Brahimi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.35},{"id":63307,"name":"Tom Saettel","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":40570,"name":"Souleymane Basse","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":26617,"name":"Jeremy Sebas","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":40579,"name":"Abdoulaye Mbaye","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.25},{"id":42204,"name":"Alexis Lefebvre","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.249},{"id":15527,"name":"Royce Openda","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.214},{"id":39901,"name":"Rony Mimb Baheng","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.192},{"id":40577,"name":"Esteban Salles","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045}],"confidence":0.718},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":2781,"name":"Jonathan Fischer","side":"home"},{"id":30387,"name":"Florian Miguel","side":"home"},{"id":2719,"name":"Cristian Castro","side":"home"},{"id":40574,"name":"Jean Ruiz","side":"home"},{"id":8949,"name":"Bouna Sarr","side":"home"},{"id":2786,"name":"Jessy Deminguet","side":"home"},{"id":4349,"name":"Believe Munongo","side":"home"},{"id":2796,"name":"Giorgi Abuashvili","side":"home"},{"id":28538,"name":"Teji Savanier","side":"home"},{"id":8897,"name":"Nathan Mbala","side":"home"},{"id":8847,"name":"Pape Moussa Fall","side":"home"},{"id":15635,"name":"Idris Mohamed","side":"home"},{"id":13675,"name":"Jahyann Pandore","side":"home"},{"id":4618,"name":"Urie-Michel Mboula","side":"home"},{"id":2782,"name":"Maxime Colin","side":"home"},{"id":149146,"name":"Abdourahmane Mbodj","side":"home"},{"id":4348,"name":"Pape Sy","side":"home"},{"id":60152,"name":"Hamza Kadamani","side":"home"},{"id":6041,"name":"Nampalys Mendy","side":"home"},{"id":149147,"name":"Bryan Song","side":"home"},{"id":76065,"name":"Abdoulaye Ba","side":"home"},{"id":2791,"name":"Ibou Sane","side":"home"},{"id":2793,"name":"Alpha Touré","side":"home"},{"id":38323,"name":"Tahirys Dos Santos","side":"home"},{"id":64177,"name":"Adam Marchal","side":"home"},{"id":36632,"name":"Joseph Mangondo","side":"home"},{"id":2797,"name":"Ousmane Ba","side":"home"},{"id":2795,"name":"Morgan Bokele Mputu","side":"home"},{"id":186021,"name":"Alassane Sy","side":"home"},{"id":29227,"name":"Brice Maubleu","side":"away"},{"id":48596,"name":"Gaëtan Paquiez","side":"away"},{"id":40573,"name":"Anthony Briançon","side":"away"},{"id":63309,"name":"Axel Bamba","side":"away"},{"id":40572,"name":"Tom Pouilly","side":"away"},{"id":27119,"name":"Mathys Tourraine","side":"away"},{"id":38139,"name":"Jessy Benet","side":"away"},{"id":26908,"name":"Lorenzo Rajot","side":"away"},{"id":29218,"name":"Luan Gadegbeku","side":"away"},{"id":40665,"name":"Hacène Benali","side":"away"},{"id":65489,"name":"Babacar Leye","side":"away"},{"id":63308,"name":"Cheikh Fall","side":"away"},{"id":114278,"name":"Axel Dodote","side":"away"},{"id":15626,"name":"Akim Abdallah","side":"away"},{"id":29763,"name":"Bilal Brahimi","side":"away"},{"id":63307,"name":"Tom Saettel","side":"away"},{"id":40570,"name":"Souleymane Basse","side":"away"},{"id":26617,"name":"Jeremy Sebas","side":"away"},{"id":40579,"name":"Abdoulaye Mbaye","side":"away"},{"id":42204,"name":"Alexis Lefebvre","side":"away"},{"id":15527,"name":"Royce Openda","side":"away"},{"id":39901,"name":"Rony Mimb Baheng","side":"away"},{"id":40577,"name":"Esteban Salles","side":"away"},{"id":63310,"name":"Maxime Adam","side":"away"},{"id":75769,"name":"Quentin Daubin","side":"away"},{"id":40566,"name":"Kylian Gasnier","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":8847,"name":"Pape Moussa Fall","side":"home","team":"Metz","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":9,"goals":8,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Rodez AF","kickoff":1788609600,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"4-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.256,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":2796,"name":"Giorgi Abuashvili","side":"home","team":"Metz","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":9,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Guingamp","kickoff":1786214700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.062,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":160,"country":0}},{"id":65489,"name":"Babacar Leye","side":"away","team":"Pau FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Rodez AF","kickoff":1787940000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.24,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":45,"country":0}},{"id":40665,"name":"Hacène Benali","side":"away","team":"Pau FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":8,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Stade Lavallois","kickoff":1791568800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.138,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":111,"away":1659},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":1},"below":{"w":3,"d":3,"l":1}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":2},"below":{"w":5,"d":2,"l":1}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1105,"name":"Grégory Proment","vs":null},"away":{"id":1089,"name":"Thierry Debes","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1745690400,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":40573,"name":"Anthony Briançon","team_id":1659,"position":"D","matches":7,"goals":1,"assists":2},{"id":28538,"name":"Teji Savanier","team_id":111,"position":"M","matches":7,"goals":2,"assists":2},{"id":8847,"name":"Pape Moussa Fall","team_id":111,"position":"F","matches":10,"goals":8,"assists":0}],"players":{"2796":{"caps":4,"goals":0,"country":"Georgia","signed":null},"28538":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"France U23","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":8847,"name":"Pape Moussa Fall","goals":8,"rank":1},{"id":37682,"name":"Yaya Fofana","goals":8,"rank":2},{"id":29207,"name":"Augustine Boakye","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":40666,"name":"Damien Durand","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":40738,"name":"Ibrahima Baldé","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":29208,"name":"Irvin Cardona","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":7787,"name":"Moïse Sahi Dion","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":6469,"name":"Thierno Ballo","goals":5,"rank":8},{"id":65489,"name":"Babacar Leye","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":40667,"name":"Jovany Ikanga","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":27308,"name":"Júlio Tavares","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":39648,"name":"Abdel Hbouch","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":38088,"name":"Aboubakary Kanté","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":37803,"name":"Benjamin Gomel","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":12959,"name":"Egor Prutsev","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":4,"home_wins":1,"draws":2,"away_wins":1,"home_goals":3,"away_goals":3,"avg_total_goals":1.5,"home_win_rate":0.25,"away_win_rate":0.25,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Metz","date":"2025-04-26T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Pau FC","score":"2-1","event_id":581406,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":111,"home_team_id":1659},{"away":"Pau FC","date":"2025-01-04T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Metz","score":"0-0","event_id":581269,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1659,"home_team_id":111},{"away":"Metz","date":"2023-04-08T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Pau FC","score":"1-1","event_id":582122,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":111,"home_team_id":1659},{"away":"Pau FC","date":"2022-10-01T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Metz","score":"1-0","event_id":581918,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1659,"home_team_id":111}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":111,"position":8,"played":10,"points":14,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"Metz","won":3,"drawn":5,"lost":2,"goals_for":16,"goals_against":14,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1659,"position":5,"played":10,"points":17,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Pau FC","won":5,"drawn":2,"lost":3,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":2,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLDLWD","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"won 4","sequence":"DLWWWW","venue_ppg":1.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Metz report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pau FC report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.282,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":14,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":17,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Grégory Proment is 5 games into the job at Metz. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Grégory Proment","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":101,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Thierry Debes has 35 matches in charge at Pau FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Thierry Debes","matches_in_charge":35,"tenure_days":336,"ppm":1.29,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Metz come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pau FC come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.104,"defence":-0.072,"effective_matches":8,"shrunk":0.5},"away":{"attack":0.028,"defence":-0.051,"effective_matches":13.2,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.5,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.3},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49,"shots":14.4,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.303,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.41},"possession_gap":2.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Metz have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.3,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pau FC have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.41,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"116 yellow cards in this referee's last 28 games, where 106 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds. — though 28 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":28,"yellows_per_match":4.14,"reds_per_match":0.286,"league_yellows_per_match":3.77,"league_reds_per_match":0.216,"yellow_ratio":1.1,"red_ratio":1.32,"sample":28,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pau FC travel 817 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":817},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":0}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.3,"temperature_c":12,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06352863192171027},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Pau FC will edge this fixture because their actual football is far better than their league position suggests. While Metz sit eighth and Pau stand fifth, the visitors regularly create the superior chances even when controlling less possession, proving their overall play exceeds their recent returns. Conversely, the hosts are getting thoroughly opened up at the back, having faced six or more efforts on target across four of their last six matches. Metz have won only two of those fixtures and failed to win any of their last three against teams above them in the table, despite relying on their top scorer who has netted eight goals this season alongside three in his last five. Pau arrive with four wins from their last six, though they notoriously travel badly. Ultimately, Pau will happily surrender possession, absorb the pressure, and exploit a wide-open home defence to secure the win.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6245,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":580563,"event_date":"2026-10-30T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":111,"home_team":"Metz","away_team_id":1659,"away_team":"Pau FC","league_id":89,"league_name":"Ligue 2"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4463,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356160,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#730f14","away":"#20275f"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Saint Symphorien","city":"Metz","capacity":28786},"pulled":[],"published":[]}