{"id":5383,"league_id":18,"league":"MLS","kickoff":1793230200,"home":"Toronto FC","away":"DC United","home_id":287,"away_id":282,"venue_id":275,"rank":4,"status":"finished","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.648,"score":[2,1],"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.81,1.27],"odds_1x2":{},"read":null,"top_pick":{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.14},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.14},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.1}],"prob":0.847,"lean":false},"pass":null,"confident":[{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"prob":0.847,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.14},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.14},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.1}],"lean":false,"caveat":true}],"flags":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"DC United are without 5 players, and Louis Munteanu is a real loss."},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"DC United have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3, and 0.00 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.812495758332823,"lambda_away":1.2745724817114399,"corner_rate":10.56,"card_rate":0.12,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.764,"home":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":9562,"name":"Luka Gavran","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.808},{"id":9548,"name":"Richie Laryea","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.729},{"id":248,"name":"Benjamin Kuscevic","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.681},{"id":9894,"name":"Zane Monlouis","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.488},{"id":9543,"name":"Kobe Franklin","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.269},{"id":4046,"name":"Matheus Pereira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.706},{"id":2442,"name":"Niklas Dorsch","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.756},{"id":9668,"name":"Alonso Coello","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.611},{"id":9551,"name":"Theo Corbeanu","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.71},{"id":6776,"name":"Josh Sargent","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.861},{"id":9896,"name":"Lewis Morgan","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.401},{"id":9465,"name":"Dániel Sallói","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.673},{"id":9552,"name":"Đorđe Mihailović","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.516},{"id":9550,"name":"Jonathan Osorio","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.497},{"id":9560,"name":"Markus Cimermancic","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.454},{"id":9932,"name":"Nickseon Gomis","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.446},{"id":9553,"name":"Derrick Etienne","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.398},{"id":30773,"name":"Jackson Gilman","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.347},{"id":9555,"name":"William Yarbrough","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.315},{"id":12139,"name":"Emilio Aristizábal","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.222},{"id":23920,"name":"Richard Chukwu","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.187},{"id":10790,"name":"Alejandro Piedrahita","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.148},{"id":9605,"name":"Raheem Edwards","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.141}],"confidence":0.764},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":9541,"name":"Sean Johnson","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.739},{"id":12148,"name":"Keisuke Kurokawa","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.793},{"id":9705,"name":"Kye Rowles","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.806},{"id":9731,"name":"Lucas Bartlett","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.758},{"id":44507,"name":"Kimito Nono","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.81},{"id":9714,"name":"João Peglow","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.691},{"id":6246,"name":"Andre Dozzell","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.798},{"id":9707,"name":"Brandon Servania","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.508},{"id":12147,"name":"Silvan Hefti","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.564},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.729},{"id":9189,"name":"Nathan Ordaz","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":9708,"name":"Matti Peltola","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.28},{"id":9534,"name":"Alex Bono","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.277},{"id":13576,"name":"Nikola Markovic","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.277},{"id":35890,"name":"Oscar Avilez","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.259},{"id":9602,"name":"Sean Nealis","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.244},{"id":9713,"name":"Jared Stroud","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.228},{"id":9703,"name":"Conner Antley","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.209},{"id":9900,"name":"Gavin Turner","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":35891,"name":"Grant Leveille","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":9702,"name":"Jordan Farr","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.809},"unavailable":[{"id":7726,"name":"Nelson Palacio","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":9247,"name":"Walker Zimmerman","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":9510,"name":"Gabriel Segal","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":9722,"name":"Hosei Kijima","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":9709,"name":"Jackson Hopkins","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":90517,"name":"Kamil Castillo","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":11910,"name":"Louis Munteanu","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":9562,"name":"Luka Gavran","side":"home"},{"id":9548,"name":"Richie Laryea","side":"home"},{"id":248,"name":"Benjamin Kuscevic","side":"home"},{"id":9894,"name":"Zane Monlouis","side":"home"},{"id":9543,"name":"Kobe Franklin","side":"home"},{"id":4046,"name":"Matheus Pereira","side":"home"},{"id":2442,"name":"Niklas Dorsch","side":"home"},{"id":9668,"name":"Alonso Coello","side":"home"},{"id":9551,"name":"Theo Corbeanu","side":"home"},{"id":6776,"name":"Josh Sargent","side":"home"},{"id":9896,"name":"Lewis Morgan","side":"home"},{"id":9465,"name":"Dániel Sallói","side":"home"},{"id":9552,"name":"Đorđe Mihailović","side":"home"},{"id":9550,"name":"Jonathan Osorio","side":"home"},{"id":9560,"name":"Markus Cimermancic","side":"home"},{"id":9932,"name":"Nickseon Gomis","side":"home"},{"id":9553,"name":"Derrick Etienne","side":"home"},{"id":30773,"name":"Jackson Gilman","side":"home"},{"id":9555,"name":"William Yarbrough","side":"home"},{"id":12139,"name":"Emilio Aristizábal","side":"home"},{"id":23920,"name":"Richard Chukwu","side":"home"},{"id":10790,"name":"Alejandro Piedrahita","side":"home"},{"id":9605,"name":"Raheem Edwards","side":"home"},{"id":9917,"name":"Henry Wingo","side":"home"},{"id":9247,"name":"Walker Zimmerman","side":"home"},{"id":9559,"name":"Lazar Stefanovic","side":"home"},{"id":37406,"name":"Stefan Kapor","side":"home"},{"id":9557,"name":"Jules-Anthony Vilsaint","side":"home"},{"id":9561,"name":"Adisa De Rosario","side":"home"},{"id":7726,"name":"Nelson Palacio","side":"home"},{"id":46775,"name":"Antone Bossenberry","side":"home"},{"id":9558,"name":"Malik Henry","side":"home"},{"id":9549,"name":"José Cifuentes","side":"home"},{"id":9541,"name":"Sean Johnson","side":"away"},{"id":12148,"name":"Keisuke Kurokawa","side":"away"},{"id":9705,"name":"Kye Rowles","side":"away"},{"id":9731,"name":"Lucas Bartlett","side":"away"},{"id":44507,"name":"Kimito Nono","side":"away"},{"id":9714,"name":"João Peglow","side":"away"},{"id":6246,"name":"Andre Dozzell","side":"away"},{"id":9707,"name":"Brandon Servania","side":"away"},{"id":12147,"name":"Silvan Hefti","side":"away"},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","side":"away"},{"id":9189,"name":"Nathan Ordaz","side":"away"},{"id":9708,"name":"Matti Peltola","side":"away"},{"id":9534,"name":"Alex Bono","side":"away"},{"id":13576,"name":"Nikola Markovic","side":"away"},{"id":35890,"name":"Oscar Avilez","side":"away"},{"id":9602,"name":"Sean Nealis","side":"away"},{"id":9713,"name":"Jared Stroud","side":"away"},{"id":9703,"name":"Conner Antley","side":"away"},{"id":9900,"name":"Gavin Turner","side":"away"},{"id":35891,"name":"Grant Leveille","side":"away"},{"id":9702,"name":"Jordan Farr","side":"away"},{"id":11910,"name":"Louis Munteanu","side":"away"},{"id":9510,"name":"Gabriel Segal","side":"away"},{"id":9709,"name":"Jackson Hopkins","side":"away"},{"id":90517,"name":"Kamil Castillo","side":"away"},{"id":9722,"name":"Hosei Kijima","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":9247,"name":"Walker Zimmerman","side":"home","team":"Toronto FC","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Ankle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":22,"starts":18,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":8,"team_games":35,"tracked_apps":22,"tracked_starts":18},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Columbus Crew","kickoff":1774112400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.057,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":7726,"name":"Nelson Palacio","side":"home","team":"Toronto FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9465,"name":"Dániel Sallói","side":"home","team":"Toronto FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":31,"starts":27,"goals":9,"assists":7,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":12,"team_games":35,"tracked_apps":31,"tracked_starts":27},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Nashville SC","kickoff":1788996600,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator"],"importance":0.23,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":129,"country":0}},{"id":6776,"name":"Josh Sargent","side":"home","team":"Toronto FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":24,"starts":21,"goals":8,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":7,"team_games":35,"tracked_apps":24,"tracked_starts":21},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Chicago Fire","kickoff":1788651000,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"4-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.199,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":275,"country":0}},{"id":9551,"name":"Theo Corbeanu","side":"home","team":"Toronto FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":18,"starts":12,"goals":3,"assists":6,"big_chances":6,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":35,"tracked_apps":18,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":3,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1792020600,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.146,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":257,"country":0}},{"id":11910,"name":"Louis Munteanu","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":21,"starts":16,"goals":6,"assists":2,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":33,"tracked_apps":21,"tracked_starts":16},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"New York City FC","kickoff":1777834800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.187,"country":{"team":"Romania","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":9709,"name":"Jackson Hopkins","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":31,"starts":20,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":11,"team_games":33,"tracked_apps":31,"tracked_starts":20},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"New York Red Bulls","kickoff":1776900600,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"4-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.085,"country":null,"load":{"games":4,"minutes":203,"country":0}},{"id":9722,"name":"Hosei Kijima","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":12,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":33,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Vancouver Whitecaps","kickoff":1790476200,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.019,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9510,"name":"Gabriel Segal","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":90517,"name":"Kamil Castillo","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"MID","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":25,"starts":24,"goals":16,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":9,"team_games":33,"tracked_apps":25,"tracked_starts":24},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"New York Red Bulls","kickoff":1776900600,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"4-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.422,"country":{"team":"Israel","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":4,"minutes":360,"country":0}},{"id":9189,"name":"Nathan Ordaz","side":"away","team":"DC United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":33,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Houston Dynamo","kickoff":1784766600,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.027,"country":{"team":"El Salvador","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":35,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":287,"away":282},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":2,"d":2,"l":4},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":2,"l":5},"below":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":295,"name":"Robin Fraser","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1785022200,"score":"1-2","result":"L"}}},"away":{"id":331,"name":"Rene Weiler","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1785022200,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"6776":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Norwich City","fee":18650000,"at":1772150400}},"9080":{"caps":26,"goals":2,"country":"Israel","signed":{"from":"Philadelphia Union","fee":3400000,"at":1765929600}},"9189":{"caps":15,"goals":0,"country":"El Salvador","signed":{"from":"Los Angeles FC","fee":2089999,"at":1783900800}},"11910":{"caps":7,"goals":2,"country":"Romania","signed":{"from":"CFR 1907 Cluj","fee":6000000,"at":1769385600}}}},"notable":[{"id":9063,"name":"Lionel Messi","goals":25,"rank":1},{"id":9331,"name":"Petar Musa","goals":22,"rank":2},{"id":9066,"name":"Milan Iloski","goals":19,"rank":3},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","goals":18,"rank":4},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","goals":18,"rank":5},{"id":9118,"name":"Brian White","goals":17,"rank":6},{"id":9124,"name":"Kelvin Yeboah","goals":17,"rank":7},{"id":9169,"name":"Kévin Denkey","goals":17,"rank":8},{"id":216,"name":"Guilherme","goals":16,"rank":9},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","goals":16,"rank":10},{"id":9573,"name":"Martín Ojeda","goals":16,"rank":11},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","goals":16,"rank":12},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","goals":16,"rank":13},{"id":9085,"name":"Luis Suárez","goals":15,"rank":14},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","goals":15,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":43,"home_wins":14,"draws":13,"away_wins":16,"home_goals":68,"away_goals":75,"avg_total_goals":3.3255813953488373,"home_win_rate":0.32558139534883723,"away_win_rate":0.37209302325581395,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Toronto FC","date":"2026-07-25T23:30:00+00:00","home":"DC United","score":"2-1","event_id":5161,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":287,"home_team_id":282},{"away":"DC United","date":"2025-05-10T20:30:00+00:00","home":"Toronto FC","score":"2-0","event_id":5794,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":282,"home_team_id":287},{"away":"Toronto FC","date":"2025-02-23T00:30:00+00:00","home":"DC United","score":"2-2","event_id":5964,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":287,"home_team_id":282},{"away":"DC United","date":"2024-08-31T23:30:00+00:00","home":"Toronto FC","score":"1-3","event_id":236755,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":282,"home_team_id":287},{"away":"Toronto FC","date":"2024-06-01T23:30:00+00:00","home":"DC United","score":"2-2","event_id":236962,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":287,"home_team_id":282},{"away":"DC United","date":"2023-05-27T23:30:00+00:00","home":"Toronto FC","score":"2-1","event_id":246581,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":282,"home_team_id":287},{"away":"Toronto FC","date":"2023-02-26T00:30:00+00:00","home":"DC United","score":"3-2","event_id":246744,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":287,"home_team_id":282},{"away":"Toronto FC","date":"2022-05-21T22:30:00+00:00","home":"DC United","score":"2-2","event_id":257754,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":287,"home_team_id":282},{"away":"DC United","date":"2022-03-19T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Toronto FC","score":"2-1","event_id":257869,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":282,"home_team_id":287},{"away":"DC United","date":"2021-11-07T20:30:00+00:00","home":"Toronto FC","score":"1-3","event_id":270475,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":282,"home_team_id":287}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":287,"position":22,"played":31,"points":36,"goal_diff":-11,"team_name":"Toronto FC","won":8,"drawn":12,"lost":11,"goals_for":48,"goals_against":59,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":282,"position":27,"played":31,"points":33,"goal_diff":-17,"team_name":"DC United","won":7,"drawn":12,"lost":12,"goals_for":38,"goals_against":55,"group":null},"size":30},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":2.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWDWL","venue_ppg":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"1-0-5","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"lost 3","sequence":"LLWLLL","venue_ppg":0}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toronto FC are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.023,"combined_importance":0.057,"players":[{"player":"Walker Zimmerman","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.023,"importance":0.057,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Nelson Palacio","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United are without 5 players, and Louis Munteanu is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.211,"combined_importance":0.291,"players":[{"player":"Louis Munteanu","role":"ATT","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.158,"importance":0.187,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Jackson Hopkins","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.053,"importance":0.085,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Hosei Kijima","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.019,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Gabriel Segal","role":"ATT","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Kamil Castillo","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.728,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-4.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.764,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.236,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toronto FC have taken 1.17 points a game from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.2, and 2.00 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":2.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWDWL","venue_ppg":2},"strength":0.15,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3, and 0.00 a game on the road.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"1-0-5","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"lost 3","sequence":"LLWLLL","venue_ppg":0},"strength":0.567,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Robin Fraser has 26 matches in charge at Toronto FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Robin Fraser","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":208,"ppm":1.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rene Weiler has 27 matches in charge at DC United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Rene Weiler","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":208,"ppm":0.96,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.8,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toronto FC come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.051,"defence":-0.065,"effective_matches":17.7,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":-0.121,"defence":-0.073,"effective_matches":17.7,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.34},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":40.3,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.103,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.388,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.55},"possession_gap":1.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toronto FC have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.34,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.55,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"174 yellow cards in this referee's last 36 games, where 144 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds.","evidence":{"matches":36,"yellows_per_match":4.83,"reds_per_match":0.111,"league_yellows_per_match":4.01,"league_reds_per_match":0.181,"yellow_ratio":1.2,"red_ratio":0.61},"strength":0.184,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4.6}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 568 km for DC United.","evidence":{"travel_km":568},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.4,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23167159395777637},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.overround","section":"§7.3","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No priced match-odds market for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"THIN","note":"No opening price on record for this market, so movement cannot be read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.sharp_reference","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"The sharp reference book is not quoting this fixture.","evidence":{"entitled":true},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.prediction_market","section":"§7.2","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No prediction-market prices for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"markets":[{"market":"1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.4901,"DRAW":0.2509,"AWAY":0.259},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"double_chance","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"12":0.7491,"1X":0.741,"X2":0.5099},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"draw_no_bet","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.6542,"AWAY":0.3458},"book":{"HOME":0.6473,"AWAY":0.3527},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.52,"bookmaker":"Betano"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.65,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0789,"books":12,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"btts","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"yes":0.6133,"no":0.3867},"book":{"yes":0.6431,"no":0.3569},"best":{"yes":{"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"no":{"odds":2.62,"bookmaker":"Betsson"}},"overround":1.0792,"books":15,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"yes":0.6432,"no":0.3568}}},{"market":"over_under_05","line":0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.9439,"under":0.0561},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"over_under_15","line":1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.8239,"under":0.1761},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"over_under_25","line":2.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.596,"under":0.404},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"over_under_35","line":3.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.3723,"under":0.6277},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-3.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.047,"AWAY":0.953},"book":{"HOME":0.0734,"AWAY":0.9266},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":8.5,"bookmaker":"fonbet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.03,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0885,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0781,"AWAY":0.9219}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-3,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.0509,"AWAY":0.9491},"book":{"HOME":0.0933,"AWAY":0.9067},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":7.2,"bookmaker":"fonbet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.05,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0913,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0923,"AWAY":0.9077}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.0896,"AWAY":0.9104},"book":{"HOME":0.0665,"AWAY":0.9335},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":8.6,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.017,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0996,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0665,"AWAY":0.9335}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1253,"AWAY":0.8747},"book":{"HOME":0.1353,"AWAY":0.8647},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":6.4,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0748,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1353,"AWAY":0.8647}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1356,"AWAY":0.8644},"book":{"HOME":0.1327,"AWAY":0.8673},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.9,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.125,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0749,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1327,"AWAY":0.8673}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1478,"AWAY":0.8522},"book":{"HOME":0.153,"AWAY":0.847},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":6.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0667,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1542,"AWAY":0.8458}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.218,"AWAY":0.782},"book":{"HOME":0.2159,"AWAY":0.7841},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":4.35,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.24,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0692,"books":4,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2152,"AWAY":0.7848}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.2775,"AWAY":0.7225},"book":{"HOME":0.2755,"AWAY":0.7245},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.357,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0651,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2755,"AWAY":0.7245}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.3105,"AWAY":0.6895},"book":{"HOME":0.3159,"AWAY":0.6841},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.1,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.43,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0716,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3159,"AWAY":0.6841}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.3524,"AWAY":0.6476},"book":{"HOME":0.3554,"AWAY":0.6446},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.75,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.53,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0653,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3554,"AWAY":0.6446}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.4294,"AWAY":0.5706},"book":{"HOME":0.4324,"AWAY":0.5676},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.2,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.69,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.067,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.4347,"AWAY":0.5653}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.4901,"AWAY":0.5099},"book":{"HOME":0.4887,"AWAY":0.5113},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.95,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.88,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0721,"books":11,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.49,"AWAY":0.51}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.5603,"AWAY":0.4397},"book":{"HOME":0.5662,"AWAY":0.4338},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.7,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.2,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0677,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.5685,"AWAY":0.4315}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.6542,"AWAY":0.3458},"book":{"HOME":0.6517,"AWAY":0.3483},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0708,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.6517,"AWAY":0.3483}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.7038,"AWAY":0.2962},"book":{"HOME":0.7084,"AWAY":0.2916},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.37,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.3,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0681,"books":4,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.7084,"AWAY":0.2916}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.741,"AWAY":0.259},"book":{"HOME":0.7402,"AWAY":0.2598},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.3,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.55,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0699,"books":4,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.7402,"AWAY":0.2598}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.7995,"AWAY":0.2005},"book":{"HOME":0.8014,"AWAY":0.1986},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":4.4,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0639,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8038,"AWAY":0.1962}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.868,"AWAY":0.132},"book":{"HOME":0.87,"AWAY":0.13},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.115,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":6.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0689,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8715,"AWAY":0.1285}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.8785,"AWAY":0.1215},"book":{"HOME":0.8819,"AWAY":0.1181},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.105,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":6.8,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0712,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8843,"AWAY":0.1157}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.8874,"AWAY":0.1126},"book":{"HOME":0.8869,"AWAY":0.1131},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.08,"bookmaker":"fonbet"},"AWAY":{"odds":6.7,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0878,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8899,"AWAY":0.1101}}},{"market":"corners_1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.519,"model":{"HOME":0.4845,"DRAW":0.1092,"AWAY":0.4063},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"red_card","line":null,"confidence":0.454,"model":{"yes":0.1133,"no":0.8867},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null}],"candidates":[{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-3,"push":"full","model_prob":0.9491,"book_prob":0.9067,"edge":0.0423,"shrunk_edge":0.0287,"odds":1.05,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.05}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"btts","outcome":"no","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.3867,"book_prob":0.3569,"edge":0.0299,"shrunk_edge":0.0254,"odds":2.62,"bookmaker":"Betsson","prices":[{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":2.62},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.6},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.55},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":2.55},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.533},{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":2.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.5},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":2.5},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":2.5},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":2.5},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":2.5},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2.5}],"kelly":0.002,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-3.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.953,"book_prob":0.9266,"edge":0.0264,"shrunk_edge":0.0179,"odds":1.03,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.03}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-2.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.0896,"book_prob":0.0665,"edge":0.0231,"shrunk_edge":0.0157,"odds":8.6,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":8.6}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.8747,"book_prob":0.8647,"edge":0.0101,"shrunk_edge":0.0068,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.115},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.077}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6542,"book_prob":0.6473,"edge":0.0069,"shrunk_edge":0.0051,"odds":1.52,"bookmaker":"Betano","prices":[{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":1.52},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.48},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.47},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.46},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.46},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.46},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.444},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.444},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.444},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.444},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.43},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":1.425}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.4397,"book_prob":0.4338,"edge":0.0058,"shrunk_edge":0.004,"odds":2.2,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.2},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.15},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":2.1},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.08}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.6895,"book_prob":0.6841,"edge":0.0054,"shrunk_edge":0.0037,"odds":1.43,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.43},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.4},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.397},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.39},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.33}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"push":"full","model_prob":0.8522,"book_prob":0.847,"edge":0.0052,"shrunk_edge":0.0035,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.14},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.14},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.1}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.2962,"book_prob":0.2916,"edge":0.0046,"shrunk_edge":0.0031,"odds":3.3,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.3},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.1},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.95},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.9}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.1215,"book_prob":0.1181,"edge":0.0034,"shrunk_edge":0.0023,"odds":6.8,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":6.8},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":6.12}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.5706,"book_prob":0.5676,"edge":0.003,"shrunk_edge":0.0021,"odds":1.69,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.69},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.675},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.67},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.666},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.66},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.62}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.6476,"book_prob":0.6446,"edge":0.003,"shrunk_edge":0.002,"odds":1.53,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.53},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.509},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.48},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.47},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.43},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.42}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-2.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.1356,"book_prob":0.1327,"edge":0.0029,"shrunk_edge":0.0019,"odds":5.9,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":5.9},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":5.84}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":0,"push":"full","model_prob":0.6542,"book_prob":0.6517,"edge":0.0025,"shrunk_edge":0.0017,"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.5},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.48},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.45},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.45},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.44},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.425}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-1.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.218,"book_prob":0.2159,"edge":0.002,"shrunk_edge":0.0014,"odds":4.35,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":4.35},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.95},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.9},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.815}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.132,"book_prob":0.13,"edge":0.002,"shrunk_edge":0.0014,"odds":6.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":6.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":6.4},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":6.4},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":5.75},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":5.4}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.2775,"book_prob":0.2755,"edge":0.002,"shrunk_edge":0.0013,"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":3.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.395},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.3},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.25},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":3.2},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.9}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.2005,"book_prob":0.1986,"edge":0.0019,"shrunk_edge":0.0013,"odds":4.4,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":4.4},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":4.4},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":4.2}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.4901,"book_prob":0.4887,"edge":0.0014,"shrunk_edge":0.0009,"odds":1.95,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.95},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.95},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.93},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.925},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.909},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.909},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.88},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.87}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.741,"book_prob":0.7402,"edge":0.0007,"shrunk_edge":0.0005,"odds":1.3,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.3},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.3},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.29},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.275}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.8874,"book_prob":0.8869,"edge":0.0004,"shrunk_edge":0.0003,"odds":1.08,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.08},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.068}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.1126,"book_prob":0.1131,"edge":-0.0004,"shrunk_edge":-0.0003,"odds":6.7,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":6.7},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":6.1}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.259,"book_prob":0.2598,"edge":-0.0007,"shrunk_edge":-0.0005,"odds":3.55,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.55},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.5},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":3.3},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":3.2}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.5099,"book_prob":0.5113,"edge":-0.0014,"shrunk_edge":-0.0009,"odds":1.88,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.875},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.87},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.85},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.833},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.833},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.8},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.8},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.8},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.8},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.75}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"}],"verdicts":[{"candidate":{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"push":"full","model_prob":0.847,"book_prob":0.847,"edge":0,"shrunk_edge":0,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.14},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.14},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.1}],"kelly":0,"confidence":1,"family":"handicap"},"lean":false,"narrative":"Toronto FC will take control of this game by punishing a completely exhausted opposition. DC United are trending down sharply, putting in their poorest four games for creating and allowing chances while losing five of their last six. Both defences are getting opened up, each facing six or more efforts on target in most recent matches. Yet Toronto FC remain comfortable without the ball, generating the better chances even when dominating less possession in three of their last six games. They are a completely different side at home. With Walker Zimmerman out at the back, Toronto FC have flaws, but DC United are missing Louis Munteanu and a huge chunk of their goals. Home advantage decides it.","why":"DC United are in their fourth game in a fortnight and heading into a venue where Toronto FC are a different side. Without Louis Munteanu, who has six goals and two assists, DC United simply lack the punch to break through, even against a Toronto FC defence facing six or more efforts on target regularly. The hosts make the better chances with less ball. For this call to fail at odds of 1.17, DC United would need to suddenly find goals without their main striker amidst heavy fatigue.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United are without 5 players, and Louis Munteanu is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.211,"combined_importance":0.291,"players":[{"player":"Louis Munteanu","role":"ATT","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.158,"importance":0.187,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Jackson Hopkins","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.053,"importance":0.085,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Hosei Kijima","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.019,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Gabriel Segal","role":"ATT","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Kamil Castillo","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.728,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-4.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"DC United have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3, and 0.00 a game on the road.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"1-0-5","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"lost 3","sequence":"LLWLLL","venue_ppg":0},"strength":0.567,"moves":[]}]}],"pass_reason":null,"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6133,"created_at":"2026-10-22T02:15:16Z","event":{"id":5383,"event_date":"2026-10-28T23:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":287,"home_team":"Toronto FC","away_team_id":282,"away_team":"DC United","league_id":18,"league_name":"MLS"},"markets":{"match_result":{"prob_home":47.1,"prob_draw":24.9,"prob_away":28,"predicted":"H"},"expected_goals":{"home":1.72,"away":1.31},"over_under":{"prob_over_15":80.9,"prob_over_25":60.9,"prob_over_35":39.4},"btts":{"prob_yes":62.8},"score":{"most_likely":"1-1"},"draw_no_bet":{"prob_home":62.9},"corners":{"prob_over_85":67.5,"prob_over_95":56.1,"prob_over_105":45.2}},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":47.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4709,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":5383,"event_date":"2026-10-28T23:30:00Z","home_team":"Toronto FC","away_team":"DC United","polymarket_event_id":"1269232","markets":{"1x2":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"btts":null,"over_under":{"over_15":null,"under_15":null,"over_25":null,"under_25":null,"over_35":null,"under_35":null,"over_45":null,"under_45":null},"halftime":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"handicap":{"home_minus_15":null,"away_minus_15":null,"home_minus_25":null,"away_minus_25":null}},"liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-28T10:27:18Z"}},"computed_at":1793188712,"report":{"fetched_at":1793239263,"ht":[0,1],"attendance":null,"highlights":[],"events":[{"t":"goal","minute":29,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"A. Dozzell","player_id":6246,"assist":"S. Hefti","kind":"regular","score":[0,1]},{"t":"card","minute":33,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"N. Dorsch","player_id":2442,"card":"yellow","reason":"Argument"},{"t":"card","minute":50,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"K. Rowles","player_id":9705,"card":"yellow","reason":"Argument"},{"t":"card","minute":50,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"D. Sallói","player_id":9465,"card":"yellow","reason":"Argument"},{"t":"card","minute":58,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"K. Nono","player_id":44507,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"card","minute":60,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"J. Stroud","player_id":9713,"card":"yellow","reason":"Argument"},{"t":"goal","minute":64,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"J. Osorio","player_id":9550,"assist":"J. Sargent","kind":"regular","score":[1,1]},{"t":"sub","minute":80,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"B. Servania","in_id":9707,"out":"N. Ordaz","out_id":9189},{"t":"card","minute":84,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"M. Pereira","player_id":4046,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"goal","minute":86,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"J. Sargent","player_id":6776,"assist":null,"kind":"regular","score":[2,1]},{"t":"sub","minute":89,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"A. Coello","in_id":9668,"out":"Đ. Mihailović","out_id":9552},{"t":"sub","minute":89,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"S. Nealis","in_id":9602,"out":"J. Stroud","out_id":9713},{"t":"sub","minute":90,"added":3,"side":"home","in":"Z. Monlouis","in_id":9894,"out":"M. Pereira","out_id":4046},{"t":"sub","minute":90,"added":5,"side":"home","in":"E. Aristizábal","in_id":12139,"out":"J. Sargent","out_id":6776}],"players":[{"id":9714,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":9541,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":12147,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.1,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":9731,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":2,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":9705,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":12148,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":1,"key_passes":2},{"id":44507,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9708,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":6246,"team_id":282,"minutes":96,"rating":7.8,"goals":1,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":1,"key_passes":0},{"id":9713,"team_id":282,"minutes":89,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":9189,"team_id":282,"minutes":80,"rating":6.2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9707,"team_id":282,"minutes":16,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9602,"team_id":282,"minutes":7,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9534,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9702,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":90517,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9703,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9900,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9709,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":13576,"team_id":282,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9562,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":1,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9548,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":6.4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":248,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":7.1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9932,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":7.6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9550,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":7.3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":1,"key_passes":0},{"id":2442,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":7.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9551,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":7.1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":2,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":9465,"team_id":287,"minutes":96,"rating":6.2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":6776,"team_id":287,"minutes":95,"rating":7.4,"goals":1,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":4,"on_target":1,"key_passes":4},{"id":4046,"team_id":287,"minutes":93,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9552,"team_id":287,"minutes":89,"rating":6.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":3},{"id":9668,"team_id":287,"minutes":7,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9894,"team_id":287,"minutes":3,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":12139,"team_id":287,"minutes":1,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9896,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9555,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":30773,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":23920,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9560,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":9553,"team_id":287,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0}],"stats":{"home":{"possession":61,"shots":9,"on_target":2,"corners":5,"fouls":7,"yellow":3,"red":0,"big_chances":2,"passes":457,"pass_pct":85.6,"offsides":3,"saves":1},"away":{"possession":39,"shots":9,"on_target":2,"corners":7,"fouls":15,"yellow":3,"red":0,"big_chances":1,"passes":291,"pass_pct":75.9,"offsides":3,"saves":0}},"lineups":{"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":9562,"name":"Luka Gavran","position":"G","number":1,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9548,"name":"Richie Laryea","position":"D","number":22,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":248,"name":"Benjamin Kuscevic","position":"D","number":13,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9932,"name":"Nickseon Gomis","position":"D","number":15,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":4046,"name":"Matheus Pereira","position":"D","number":3,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9550,"name":"Jonathan Osorio","position":"M","number":21,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":2442,"name":"Niklas Dorsch","position":"M","number":6,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9552,"name":"Đorđe Mihailović","position":"M","number":10,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9551,"name":"Theo Corbeanu","position":"F","number":7,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":6776,"name":"Josh Sargent","position":"F","number":9,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9465,"name":"Dániel Sallói","position":"F","number":20,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9668,"name":"Alonso Coello","position":"M","number":14,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9894,"name":"Zane Monlouis","position":"D","number":12,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":12139,"name":"Emilio Aristizábal","position":"F","number":17,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9555,"name":"William Yarbrough","position":"G","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":30773,"name":"Jackson Gilman","position":"D","number":38,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":23920,"name":"Richard Chukwu","position":"D","number":96,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9560,"name":"Markus Cimermancic","position":"M","number":71,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9553,"name":"Derrick Etienne","position":"F","number":11,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9896,"name":"Lewis Morgan","position":"F","number":90,"captain":false,"starting":false}]},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":9541,"name":"Sean Johnson","position":"G","number":1,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":12147,"name":"Silvan Hefti","position":"D","number":5,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9731,"name":"Lucas Bartlett","position":"D","number":3,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":9705,"name":"Kye Rowles","position":"D","number":15,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":12148,"name":"Keisuke Kurokawa","position":"D","number":6,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":44507,"name":"Kimito Nono","position":"M","number":2,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9708,"name":"Matti Peltola","position":"M","number":4,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":6246,"name":"Andre Dozzell","position":"M","number":21,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9713,"name":"Jared Stroud","position":"M","number":8,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9714,"name":"João Peglow","position":"F","number":7,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9189,"name":"Nathan Ordaz","position":"F","number":22,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":9707,"name":"Brandon Servania","position":"M","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9602,"name":"Sean Nealis","position":"D","number":13,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9702,"name":"Jordan Farr","position":"G","number":24,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9534,"name":"Alex Bono","position":"G","number":26,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":13576,"name":"Nikola Markovic","position":"D","number":27,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9703,"name":"Conner Antley","position":"D","number":12,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":90517,"name":"Kamil Castillo","position":"M","number":40,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9900,"name":"Gavin Turner","position":"M","number":48,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":9709,"name":"Jackson Hopkins","position":"M","number":25,"captain":false,"starting":false}]}}},"colors":{"home":"#e31937","away":"#ec1e2f"},"venue":{"name":"BMO Field","city":"Toronto","capacity":45700},"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"fonbet","model_prob":0.8470121196657427,"narrative":"Toronto FC will take control of this game by punishing a completely exhausted opposition. DC United are trending down sharply, putting in their poorest four games for creating and allowing chances while losing five of their last six. Both defences are getting opened up, each facing six or more efforts on target in most recent matches. Yet Toronto FC remain comfortable without the ball, generating the better chances even when dominating less possession in three of their last six games. They are a completely different side at home. With Walker Zimmerman out at the back, Toronto FC have flaws, but DC United are missing Louis Munteanu and a huge chunk of their goals. Home advantage decides it.","why":"DC United are in their fourth game in a fortnight and heading into a venue where Toronto FC are a different side. Without Louis Munteanu, who has six goals and two assists, DC United simply lack the punch to break through, even against a Toronto FC defence facing six or more efforts on target regularly. The hosts make the better chances with less ball. For this call to fail at odds of 1.17, DC United would need to suddenly find goals without their main striker amidst heavy fatigue.","result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":"as we read it","expected_total":3.08,"actual_total":3,"market":"held","opening_odds":1.17,"closing_odds":1.17,"line":"One goal the other way and it was gone. Right, with nothing to spare.","decided":[]}}]}