{"id":5362,"league_id":18,"league":"MLS","kickoff":1792290600,"home":"Portland Timbers","away":"Colorado Rapids","home_id":294,"away_id":303,"venue_id":282,"rank":4,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.614,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.66,1.4],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on Portland Timbers against Colorado Rapids. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Portland Timbers are without 6 players, and Finn Surman is a real loss."}],"lambda_home":1.657247693663309,"lambda_away":1.4039850268323535,"corner_rate":9.3,"card_rate":0.207,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.777,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":9217,"name":"James Pantemis","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.857},{"id":9233,"name":"Jímer Fory","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.766},{"id":9225,"name":"Kamal Miller","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":9350,"name":"Joel Waterman","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.442},{"id":9545,"name":"Ronald Hernández","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.508},{"id":9237,"name":"David Pereira Da Costa","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.777},{"id":9403,"name":"Cole Bassett","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.711},{"id":9230,"name":"Diego Chará","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.626},{"id":9244,"name":"Kristoffer Velde","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.877},{"id":7307,"name":"Vincent Janssen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.515},{"id":9278,"name":"Ariel Lassiter","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.7},{"id":9271,"name":"Eric Miller","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.502},{"id":10067,"name":"José Caicedo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.433},{"id":9346,"name":"Joao Ortíz","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.394},{"id":9228,"name":"Antony Alves","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.383},{"id":9274,"name":"Ian Smith","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.316},{"id":13565,"name":"Eric Izoita","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.304},{"id":9344,"name":"Omir Fernandez","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":9263,"name":"Gage Guerra","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.252},{"id":620,"name":"Alexander Aravena","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.114},{"id":9682,"name":"Sawyer Jura","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":9681,"name":"Trey Muse","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02}],"confidence":0.777},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":9418,"name":"Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.769},{"id":12180,"name":"Miguel Navarro","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.796},{"id":9400,"name":"Rob Holding","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.884},{"id":27898,"name":"Loïc Williams","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.866},{"id":9398,"name":"Reggie Cannon","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":9427,"name":"Josh Atencio","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.567},{"id":9405,"name":"Paxten Aaronson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.884},{"id":9767,"name":"Wayne Frederick","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.627},{"id":9286,"name":"Georgi Minoungou","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.538},{"id":53490,"name":"Donavan Phillip","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.471},{"id":6326,"name":"Morgan Whittaker","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.449},{"id":1423,"name":"Hamzat Ojediran","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.556},{"id":9404,"name":"Darren Yapi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.41},{"id":9411,"name":"Keegan Rosenberry","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":3177,"name":"Saied Abu Farchi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.314},{"id":9757,"name":"Adam Beaudry","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.31},{"id":9424,"name":"Noah Cobb","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.267},{"id":9546,"name":"Kosi Thompson","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.245},{"id":9831,"name":"Jackson Travis","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.236},{"id":9430,"name":"Alex Harris","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.202},{"id":5489,"name":"Ibrahim Sadiq","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.189},{"id":9363,"name":"Bryan Dowd","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":79346,"name":"Nathan Tchoumba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.791},"unavailable":[{"id":12103,"name":"Alex Bonetig","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Shoulder Injury"},{"id":9532,"name":"Brandon Bye","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":9220,"name":"Finn Surman","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":12104,"name":"Hunter Sulte","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":9248,"name":"Juan Mosquera","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Foot Injury"},{"id":9748,"name":"Zac McGraw","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Back Injury"},{"id":9954,"name":"Ali Fadal","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":9406,"name":"Theodore Ku-DiPietro","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Shoulder Injury"},{"id":7208,"name":"Youssef Maziz","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":9397,"name":"Zack Steffen","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Shoulder Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":9217,"name":"James Pantemis","side":"home"},{"id":9233,"name":"Jímer Fory","side":"home"},{"id":9225,"name":"Kamal Miller","side":"home"},{"id":9350,"name":"Joel Waterman","side":"home"},{"id":9545,"name":"Ronald Hernández","side":"home"},{"id":9237,"name":"David Pereira Da Costa","side":"home"},{"id":9403,"name":"Cole Bassett","side":"home"},{"id":9230,"name":"Diego Chará","side":"home"},{"id":9244,"name":"Kristoffer Velde","side":"home"},{"id":7307,"name":"Vincent Janssen","side":"home"},{"id":9278,"name":"Ariel Lassiter","side":"home"},{"id":9271,"name":"Eric Miller","side":"home"},{"id":10067,"name":"José Caicedo","side":"home"},{"id":9346,"name":"Joao Ortíz","side":"home"},{"id":9228,"name":"Antony Alves","side":"home"},{"id":9274,"name":"Ian Smith","side":"home"},{"id":13565,"name":"Eric Izoita","side":"home"},{"id":9344,"name":"Omir Fernandez","side":"home"},{"id":9263,"name":"Gage Guerra","side":"home"},{"id":620,"name":"Alexander Aravena","side":"home"},{"id":9682,"name":"Sawyer Jura","side":"home"},{"id":9681,"name":"Trey Muse","side":"home"},{"id":9532,"name":"Brandon Bye","side":"home"},{"id":12103,"name":"Alex Bonetig","side":"home"},{"id":9748,"name":"Zac McGraw","side":"home"},{"id":9220,"name":"Finn Surman","side":"home"},{"id":9248,"name":"Juan Mosquera","side":"home"},{"id":12104,"name":"Hunter Sulte","side":"home"},{"id":9240,"name":"Kevin Kelsy","side":"home"},{"id":9259,"name":"Felipe Mora","side":"home"},{"id":9418,"name":"Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen","side":"away"},{"id":12180,"name":"Miguel Navarro","side":"away"},{"id":9400,"name":"Rob Holding","side":"away"},{"id":27898,"name":"Loïc Williams","side":"away"},{"id":9398,"name":"Reggie Cannon","side":"away"},{"id":9427,"name":"Josh Atencio","side":"away"},{"id":9405,"name":"Paxten Aaronson","side":"away"},{"id":9767,"name":"Wayne Frederick","side":"away"},{"id":9286,"name":"Georgi Minoungou","side":"away"},{"id":53490,"name":"Donavan Phillip","side":"away"},{"id":6326,"name":"Morgan Whittaker","side":"away"},{"id":1423,"name":"Hamzat Ojediran","side":"away"},{"id":9404,"name":"Darren Yapi","side":"away"},{"id":9411,"name":"Keegan Rosenberry","side":"away"},{"id":3177,"name":"Saied Abu Farchi","side":"away"},{"id":9757,"name":"Adam Beaudry","side":"away"},{"id":9424,"name":"Noah Cobb","side":"away"},{"id":9546,"name":"Kosi Thompson","side":"away"},{"id":9831,"name":"Jackson Travis","side":"away"},{"id":9430,"name":"Alex Harris","side":"away"},{"id":5489,"name":"Ibrahim Sadiq","side":"away"},{"id":9363,"name":"Bryan Dowd","side":"away"},{"id":79346,"name":"Nathan Tchoumba","side":"away"},{"id":90771,"name":"Grant Gilmore","side":"away"},{"id":79354,"name":"Vincent Rinaldi","side":"away"},{"id":13653,"name":"Mamadou Billo Diop","side":"away"},{"id":79345,"name":"Christopher Aquino","side":"away"},{"id":9397,"name":"Zack Steffen","side":"away"},{"id":9954,"name":"Ali Fadal","side":"away"},{"id":9406,"name":"Theodore Ku-DiPietro","side":"away"},{"id":9852,"name":"Kimani Stewart-Baynes","side":"away"},{"id":152998,"name":"Akol Akon","side":"away"},{"id":90770,"name":"Jonathan de la Fuente","side":"away"},{"id":7208,"name":"Youssef Maziz","side":"away"},{"id":9407,"name":"Rafael Navarro","side":"away"},{"id":9409,"name":"Alexis Manyoma","side":"away"},{"id":12179,"name":"Lucas Herrington","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":9532,"name":"Brandon Bye","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":20,"starts":19,"goals":1,"assists":3,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":8,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":20,"tracked_starts":19},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Seattle Sounders FC","kickoff":1785638700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.083,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9220,"name":"Finn Surman","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":26,"starts":25,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":9,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":26,"tracked_starts":25},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Chicago Fire","kickoff":1786917600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["ever_present","defensive_rock"],"importance":0.113,"country":{"team":"New Zealand","apps":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"ended":1782529200},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":12104,"name":"Hunter Sulte","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9248,"name":"Juan Mosquera","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Foot Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":3,"starts":0,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Vancouver Whitecaps","kickoff":1775356200,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.013,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":12103,"name":"Alex Bonetig","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Shoulder Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":8,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":6,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"San Diego FC","kickoff":1777167000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.03,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9240,"name":"Kevin Kelsy","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":20,"starts":13,"goals":9,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":20,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Sporting Kansas City","kickoff":1778380200,"goals":2,"assists":1,"score":"6-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.215,"country":{"team":"Venezuela","apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":73,"country":0}},{"id":9278,"name":"Ariel Lassiter","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":23,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":4,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":23,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sporting Kansas City","kickoff":1791678600,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.157,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":87,"country":0}},{"id":7307,"name":"Vincent Janssen","side":"home","team":"Portland Timbers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":4,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Minnesota United","kickoff":1788661800,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"5-4","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.082,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":63,"country":0}},{"id":9397,"name":"Zack Steffen","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Shoulder Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":9,"starts":9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Houston Dynamo","kickoff":1777768200,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"0-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.043,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":7208,"name":"Youssef Maziz","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":6,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Salt Lake","kickoff":1788053400,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.028,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9954,"name":"Ali Fadal","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9406,"name":"Theodore Ku-DiPietro","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Shoulder Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":4,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9407,"name":"Rafael Navarro","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":22,"starts":22,"goals":10,"assists":3,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":15,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":22,"tracked_starts":22},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Houston Dynamo","kickoff":1775957400,"goals":2,"assists":1,"score":"6-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.334,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":150,"country":0}},{"id":53490,"name":"Donavan Phillip","side":"away","team":"Colorado Rapids","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":4,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"San Jose Earthquakes","kickoff":1791682200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.083,"country":{"team":"Saint Lucia","apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":221,"country":1}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":9063,"name":"Lionel Messi","goals":23,"rank":1},{"id":9331,"name":"Petar Musa","goals":19,"rank":2},{"id":9066,"name":"Milan Iloski","goals":18,"rank":3},{"id":9118,"name":"Brian White","goals":17,"rank":4},{"id":9169,"name":"Kévin Denkey","goals":17,"rank":5},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","goals":17,"rank":6},{"id":9124,"name":"Kelvin Yeboah","goals":16,"rank":7},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","goals":15,"rank":8},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","goals":15,"rank":9},{"id":9085,"name":"Luis Suárez","goals":15,"rank":10},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","goals":15,"rank":11},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","goals":15,"rank":12},{"id":9595,"name":"Prince Owusu","goals":15,"rank":13},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","goals":15,"rank":14},{"id":216,"name":"Guilherme","goals":14,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":35,"home_wins":16,"draws":7,"away_wins":12,"home_goals":51,"away_goals":45,"avg_total_goals":2.742857142857143,"home_win_rate":0.45714285714285713,"away_win_rate":0.34285714285714286,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2026-02-28T21:30:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"2-0","event_id":4931,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303},{"away":"Colorado Rapids","date":"2025-05-29T02:30:00+00:00","home":"Portland Timbers","score":"2-1","event_id":5742,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":303,"home_team_id":294},{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2025-03-23T01:30:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"0-3","event_id":5878,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303},{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2024-09-15T01:30:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"2-1","event_id":236725,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303},{"away":"Colorado Rapids","date":"2024-02-25T03:30:00+00:00","home":"Portland Timbers","score":"4-1","event_id":237154,"away_score":1,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":303,"home_team_id":294},{"away":"Colorado Rapids","date":"2023-09-24T02:30:00+00:00","home":"Portland Timbers","score":"3-2","event_id":246347,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":303,"home_team_id":294},{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2023-07-13T01:00:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"0-0","event_id":246411,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303},{"away":"Colorado Rapids","date":"2022-06-26T02:30:00+00:00","home":"Portland Timbers","score":"3-0","event_id":257690,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":303,"home_team_id":294},{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2022-05-01T01:00:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"2-0","event_id":257829,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303},{"away":"Portland Timbers","date":"2021-11-25T21:30:00+00:00","home":"Colorado Rapids","score":"0-1","event_id":270491,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":294,"home_team_id":303}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":294,"position":20,"played":28,"points":33,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Portland Timbers","won":9,"drawn":6,"lost":13,"goals_for":51,"goals_against":54,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":303,"position":14,"played":29,"points":38,"goal_diff":0,"team_name":"Colorado Rapids","won":11,"drawn":5,"lost":13,"goals_for":39,"goals_against":39,"group":null},"size":30},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":2,"goals_against":2.5,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 5","sequence":"WDLLLD","venue_ppg":1.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"1-3-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDWDLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portland Timbers are without 6 players, and Finn Surman is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.111,"combined_importance":0.239,"players":[{"player":"Finn Surman","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.028,"importance":0.113,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7,"tags":["ever_present","defensive_rock"]},{"player":"Brandon Bye","role":"DEF","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0.028,"importance":0.083,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Alex Bonetig","role":"DEF","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0.028,"importance":0.03,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Juan Mosquera","role":"DEF","reason":"Foot Injury","goal_share":0.028,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Hunter Sulte","role":"GK","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":2},{"player":"Zac McGraw","role":"DEF","reason":"Back Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.598,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Colorado Rapids are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.071,"players":[{"player":"Zack Steffen","role":"GK","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Youssef Maziz","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.028,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Ali Fadal","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Theodore Ku-DiPietro","role":"MID","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.177,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.777,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.223,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Marti Cifuentes is 11 games into the job at Portland Timbers, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Marti Cifuentes","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":77,"ppm":1.09,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Matt Wells has 19 matches in charge at Colorado Rapids, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Matt Wells","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":197,"ppm":1.21,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portland Timbers come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Colorado Rapids come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0416666666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.02,"defence":-0.07,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.101,"defence":0.097,"effective_matches":16,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.7,"shots":14.1,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.361,"finishing_vs_xg":0.29},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.3,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.373,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.41},"possession_gap":-3.7},"strength":0.147,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portland Timbers have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Colorado Rapids have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.41,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.1,"temperature_c":22,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23201325605212983},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5322,"created_at":"2026-10-12T02:15:27Z","event":{"id":5362,"event_date":"2026-10-18T02:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":294,"home_team":"Portland Timbers","away_team_id":303,"away_team":"Colorado Rapids","league_id":18,"league_name":"MLS"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":43.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4368,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":5362,"event_date":"2026-10-18T02:30:00Z","home_team":"Portland Timbers","away_team":"Colorado Rapids","polymarket_event_id":"1131861","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 0 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 1 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 1 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.155,"Portland Timbers 1 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 1 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 1 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 1 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 2 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 2 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 2 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.085,"Portland Timbers 2 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 2 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.07,"Portland Timbers 2 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.055,"Portland Timbers 3 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 3 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 3 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 3 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.07,"Portland Timbers 3 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 3 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 4 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 4 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 4 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 4 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 4 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.055,"Portland Timbers 4 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 0 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 1 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 2 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 3 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 4 Colorado Rapids SC":0.375,"Portland Timbers 5 - 5 Colorado Rapids SC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-11T15:57:36Z"}},"computed_at":1792037557,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a7621","away":"#970f31"},"venue":{"name":"Providence Park","city":"Portland","capacity":25218},"pulled":[],"published":[]}