{"id":5361,"league_id":18,"league":"MLS","kickoff":1792290600,"home":"San Jose Earthquakes","away":"Nashville SC","home_id":298,"away_id":284,"venue_id":286,"rank":4,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.616,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.43,1.62],"read":{"text":"Nashville SC to edge it, with goals","side":"away"},"pass":"No call on San Jose Earthquakes against Nashville SC. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"San Jose Earthquakes are without 6 players, and Niko Tsakiris is a real loss."}],"lambda_home":1.4335742481007956,"lambda_away":1.6181442288998686,"corner_rate":9.94,"card_rate":0.166,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.741,"home":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":4789,"name":"Angus Gunn","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.747},{"id":9490,"name":"Jamar Ricketts","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.532},{"id":9483,"name":"Daniel Munie","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.768},{"id":9486,"name":"Dave Romney","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.707},{"id":9481,"name":"Benjamin Kikanović","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.465},{"id":9494,"name":"Ronaldo Vieira","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.616},{"id":9497,"name":"Beau Leroux","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.833},{"id":9423,"name":"Eduard Löwen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.706},{"id":4644,"name":"Timo Werner","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.358},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.517},{"id":9499,"name":"Ousseni Bouda","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.663},{"id":9674,"name":"Reid Roberts","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.637},{"id":21425,"name":"Jack Jasinski","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.469},{"id":9512,"name":"Vitor Costa","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.433},{"id":9821,"name":"Paul Marie","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.43},{"id":9513,"name":"Ian Harkes","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.429},{"id":9479,"name":"Earl Edwards Jr","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.384},{"id":9520,"name":"Max Floriani","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.344},{"id":9796,"name":"Nick Fernandez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.297},{"id":91412,"name":"Luka Jovanovic","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.253},{"id":9515,"name":"Francesco Montali","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":9675,"name":"Noel Buck","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.741},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":9306,"name":"Brian Schwake","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.746},{"id":9376,"name":"Reed Baker-Whiting","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.778},{"id":12128,"name":"Maxwell Woledzi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.826},{"id":9345,"name":"Jeisson Palacios","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.718},{"id":9242,"name":"Andy Najar","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.704},{"id":9269,"name":"Matthew Corcoran","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.699},{"id":9260,"name":"Patrick Yazbek","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.618},{"id":2415,"name":"Elias Saad","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.693},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.828},{"id":9492,"name":"Cristian Espinoza","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.773},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.805},{"id":9264,"name":"Edvard Tagseth","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.549},{"id":9288,"name":"Daniel Lovitz","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.389},{"id":9251,"name":"Jack Maher","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.313},{"id":9638,"name":"Shakur Mohammed","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.308},{"id":9236,"name":"Joe Willis","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.295},{"id":9358,"name":"Ahmed Qasem","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.235},{"id":9275,"name":"Alex Muyl","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.22},{"id":9315,"name":"Bryan Acosta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.19},{"id":9256,"name":"Josh Bauer","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.16},{"id":9540,"name":"Jordan Knight","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":211678,"name":"William Mackay","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.827},"unavailable":[{"id":16635,"name":"Darius Johnson","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":9785,"name":"DeJuan Jones","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Achilles Tendon Rupture"},{"id":9508,"name":"Jack Skahan","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":10340,"name":"Jonathan Gonzalez","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":9511,"name":"Niko Tsakiris","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":12107,"name":"Nonso Adimabua","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":9865,"name":"Owen Presthus","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":12129,"name":"Warren Madrigal","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":4789,"name":"Angus Gunn","side":"home"},{"id":9490,"name":"Jamar Ricketts","side":"home"},{"id":9483,"name":"Daniel Munie","side":"home"},{"id":9486,"name":"Dave Romney","side":"home"},{"id":9481,"name":"Benjamin Kikanović","side":"home"},{"id":9494,"name":"Ronaldo Vieira","side":"home"},{"id":9497,"name":"Beau Leroux","side":"home"},{"id":9423,"name":"Eduard Löwen","side":"home"},{"id":4644,"name":"Timo Werner","side":"home"},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","side":"home"},{"id":9499,"name":"Ousseni Bouda","side":"home"},{"id":9674,"name":"Reid Roberts","side":"home"},{"id":21425,"name":"Jack Jasinski","side":"home"},{"id":9512,"name":"Vitor Costa","side":"home"},{"id":9821,"name":"Paul Marie","side":"home"},{"id":9513,"name":"Ian Harkes","side":"home"},{"id":9479,"name":"Earl Edwards Jr","side":"home"},{"id":9520,"name":"Max Floriani","side":"home"},{"id":9796,"name":"Nick Fernandez","side":"home"},{"id":91412,"name":"Luka Jovanovic","side":"home"},{"id":9515,"name":"Francesco Montali","side":"home"},{"id":9675,"name":"Noel Buck","side":"home"},{"id":63841,"name":"Alejandro Cano Salazar","side":"home"},{"id":59474,"name":"Alejandro Cano","side":"home"},{"id":12107,"name":"Nonso Adimabua","side":"home"},{"id":16635,"name":"Darius Johnson","side":"home"},{"id":9511,"name":"Niko Tsakiris","side":"home"},{"id":9508,"name":"Jack Skahan","side":"home"},{"id":9785,"name":"DeJuan Jones","side":"home"},{"id":10340,"name":"Jonathan Gonzalez","side":"home"},{"id":9306,"name":"Brian Schwake","side":"away"},{"id":9376,"name":"Reed Baker-Whiting","side":"away"},{"id":12128,"name":"Maxwell Woledzi","side":"away"},{"id":9345,"name":"Jeisson Palacios","side":"away"},{"id":9242,"name":"Andy Najar","side":"away"},{"id":9269,"name":"Matthew Corcoran","side":"away"},{"id":9260,"name":"Patrick Yazbek","side":"away"},{"id":2415,"name":"Elias Saad","side":"away"},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","side":"away"},{"id":9492,"name":"Cristian Espinoza","side":"away"},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","side":"away"},{"id":9264,"name":"Edvard Tagseth","side":"away"},{"id":9288,"name":"Daniel Lovitz","side":"away"},{"id":9251,"name":"Jack Maher","side":"away"},{"id":9638,"name":"Shakur Mohammed","side":"away"},{"id":9236,"name":"Joe Willis","side":"away"},{"id":9358,"name":"Ahmed Qasem","side":"away"},{"id":9275,"name":"Alex Muyl","side":"away"},{"id":9315,"name":"Bryan Acosta","side":"away"},{"id":9256,"name":"Josh Bauer","side":"away"},{"id":9540,"name":"Jordan Knight","side":"away"},{"id":211678,"name":"William Mackay","side":"away"},{"id":9865,"name":"Owen Presthus","side":"away"},{"id":12129,"name":"Warren Madrigal","side":"away"},{"id":9783,"name":"Xavier Valdez","side":"away"},{"id":216073,"name":"Will Mackay","side":"away"},{"id":95066,"name":"Famara Camara","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":9511,"name":"Niko Tsakiris","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":19,"starts":15,"goals":3,"assists":7,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":12,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":19,"tracked_starts":15},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":3,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"San Diego FC","kickoff":1775356200,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.174,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9508,"name":"Jack Skahan","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":21,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":21,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sporting Kansas City","kickoff":1775953800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.054,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":12107,"name":"Nonso Adimabua","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":2,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Seattle Sounders FC","kickoff":1778722200,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":["High pressing","Defensive positioning","trait_1"],"tags":[],"importance":0.003,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":16635,"name":"Darius Johnson","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":4,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":"Grenada","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":9785,"name":"DeJuan Jones","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Achilles Tendon Rupture","expected_return":"2026-11-09","season":{"apps":5,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.007,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","side":"home","team":"San Jose Earthquakes","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":27,"starts":21,"goals":15,"assists":3,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":10,"team_games":29,"tracked_apps":26,"tracked_starts":20},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Portland Timbers","kickoff":1790476200,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.36,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":186,"country":0}},{"id":12129,"name":"Warren Madrigal","side":"away","team":"Nashville SC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":16,"starts":8,"goals":6,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":6,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":15,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"DC United","kickoff":1778375700,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.104,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":14,"country":0}},{"id":9865,"name":"Owen Presthus","side":"away","team":"Nashville SC","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","side":"away","team":"Nashville SC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":23,"starts":19,"goals":17,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":12,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":22,"tracked_starts":18},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1774131300,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.315,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":179,"country":0}},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","side":"away","team":"Nashville SC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":29,"starts":26,"goals":15,"assists":7,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":15,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":28,"tracked_starts":25},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":5,"assists":1,"scoredIn":4,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Los Angeles FC","kickoff":1779062400,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["ever_present","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.388,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":172,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":9063,"name":"Lionel Messi","goals":23,"rank":1},{"id":9331,"name":"Petar Musa","goals":19,"rank":2},{"id":9066,"name":"Milan Iloski","goals":18,"rank":3},{"id":9118,"name":"Brian White","goals":17,"rank":4},{"id":9169,"name":"Kévin Denkey","goals":17,"rank":5},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","goals":17,"rank":6},{"id":9124,"name":"Kelvin Yeboah","goals":16,"rank":7},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","goals":15,"rank":8},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","goals":15,"rank":9},{"id":9085,"name":"Luis Suárez","goals":15,"rank":10},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","goals":15,"rank":11},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","goals":15,"rank":12},{"id":9595,"name":"Prince Owusu","goals":15,"rank":13},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","goals":15,"rank":14},{"id":216,"name":"Guilherme","goals":14,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":4,"home_wins":0,"draws":4,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":4,"away_goals":4,"avg_total_goals":2,"home_win_rate":0,"away_win_rate":0,"recent_matches":[{"away":"San Jose Earthquakes","date":"2024-04-28T00:30:00+00:00","home":"Nashville SC","score":"1-1","event_id":236995,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":298,"home_team_id":284},{"away":"Nashville SC","date":"2023-09-24T02:30:00+00:00","home":"San Jose Earthquakes","score":"1-1","event_id":246348,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":284,"home_team_id":298},{"away":"San Jose Earthquakes","date":"2022-06-12T00:00:00+00:00","home":"Nashville SC","score":"0-0","event_id":257722,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":298,"home_team_id":284},{"away":"Nashville SC","date":"2022-04-16T19:30:00+00:00","home":"San Jose Earthquakes","score":"2-2","event_id":257853,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":284,"home_team_id":298}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":298,"position":8,"played":29,"points":47,"goal_diff":10,"team_name":"San Jose Earthquakes","won":13,"drawn":8,"lost":8,"goals_for":50,"goals_against":40,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":284,"position":1,"played":29,"points":66,"goal_diff":40,"team_name":"Nashville SC","won":20,"drawn":6,"lost":3,"goals_for":62,"goals_against":22,"group":null},"size":30},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2,"record":"3-3-0","goals_for":1.83,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"unbeaten 6","sequence":"DWWDWD","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":2,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"won 3","sequence":"DLDWWW","venue_ppg":1.25}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"San Jose Earthquakes are without 6 players, and Niko Tsakiris is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.1,"combined_importance":0.238,"players":[{"player":"Niko Tsakiris","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.06,"importance":0.174,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["top_creator","chance_creator","in_form"]},{"player":"Jack Skahan","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.04,"importance":0.054,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"DeJuan Jones","role":"MID","reason":"Achilles Tendon Rupture","goal_share":0,"importance":0.007,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Nonso Adimabua","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.003,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Darius Johnson","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Jonathan Gonzalez","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.595,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.9}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nashville SC are without 2 players, and Warren Madrigal is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.097,"combined_importance":0.104,"players":[{"player":"Warren Madrigal","role":"ATT","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.097,"importance":0.104,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Owen Presthus","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.26,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.741,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.259,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bruce Arena has 25 matches in charge at San Jose Earthquakes, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Bruce Arena","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":196,"ppm":1.4,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"B.J. Callaghan has 24 matches in charge at Nashville SC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"B.J. Callaghan","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":196,"ppm":2.21,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"San Jose Earthquakes come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0416666666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nashville SC come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0833333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.002,"defence":0.011,"effective_matches":16,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.127,"defence":0.206,"effective_matches":16.6,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.3,"shots":13,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.397,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.04},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.3,"shots":15,"xg_per_shot":0.131,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.433,"finishing_vs_xg":0.2},"possession_gap":-2.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"San Jose Earthquakes are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.04,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nashville SC are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.2,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.1,"temperature_c":29,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23201325605212983},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5320,"created_at":"2026-10-12T02:15:27Z","event":{"id":5361,"event_date":"2026-10-18T02:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":298,"home_team":"San Jose Earthquakes","away_team_id":284,"away_team":"Nashville SC","league_id":18,"league_name":"MLS"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":47.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4709,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":5361,"event_date":"2026-10-18T02:30:00Z","home_team":"San Jose Earthquakes","away_team":"Nashville SC","polymarket_event_id":"1131864","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.38,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 1 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 2 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 3 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 4 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 0 - 5 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 1 Nashville SC":0.155,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 2 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 3 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 4 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 5 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 1 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 2 Nashville SC":0.085,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 3 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 4 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 2 - 5 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 1 Nashville SC":0.07,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 2 Nashville SC":0.07,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 3 Nashville SC":0.07,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 4 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 3 - 5 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 1 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 2 Nashville SC":0.07,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 3 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 4 Nashville SC":0.055,"San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 5 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 0 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 1 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 2 Nashville SC":0.045,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 3 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 4 Nashville SC":0.375,"San Jose Earthquakes 5 - 5 Nashville SC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-11T15:57:36Z"}},"computed_at":1792037557,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d63a1","away":"#ebe73a"},"venue":{"name":"PayPal Park","city":"San Jose","capacity":18000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}