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the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.036,"defence":-0.247,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.123,"defence":-0.071,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":41,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":11.5,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.378,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.51},"possession_gap":-3.3},"strength":0.13,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Örgryte IS are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mjällby AIF have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.51,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 252 km for Mjällby AIF.","evidence":{"travel_km":252},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.1,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1056256676150061},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Mjällby AIF will find their scoring touch against a defense that is far too easy to penetrate. The visitors have only put 7 in the net recently despite creating enough to score 12, but a scoring burst is imminent. Örgryte IS sit 15th because they are getting opened up, facing six or more shots on target in four of their last six outings. Losing Jerome Tibbling Ugwo to a muscle injury makes them less dangerous on the break. While the hosts are a different side at home, opponents have produced more quality in seven of their last ten matches. Mjällby are on an upward curve and will control the flow. Noah Christoffersson is their only hope.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6197,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":46511,"event_date":"2026-10-29T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":450,"home_team":"Örgryte IS","away_team_id":441,"away_team":"Mjällby AIF","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":40.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4082,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793281251,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a2576","away":"#ecc713"},"venue":{"name":"Gamla Ullevi","city":"Gothenburg","capacity":18416},"pulled":[],"published":[]}