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losses.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.276,"combined_importance":0.322,"players":[{"player":"William Milovanovic","role":"MID","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0.069,"importance":0.103,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["top_creator"]},{"player":"Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.138,"importance":0.1,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Joackim Fagerjord","role":"MID","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0.069,"importance":0.089,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Dennis Collander","role":"MID","reason":"Rib Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.029,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Christos Gravius","role":"MID","reason":"Illness","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.805,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.65,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.35,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kalmar FF are fighting relegation; GAIS are safely mid-table, with 4 games remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":4,"home":{"state":"relegation_fight","position":13,"points":22,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":33,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":24},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":31,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":24,"gap_to_safety":11,"gap_to_europe":15},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.8,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":4.4}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kalmar FF lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Kalmar FF","reverse_score":"3-0","reverse_date":1780146000},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toni Koskela has 28 matches in charge at Kalmar FF, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Toni Koskela","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":208,"ppm":1.04,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fredrik Holmberg has 66 matches in charge at GAIS, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Fredrik Holmberg","matches_in_charge":66,"tenure_days":578,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kalmar FF come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"GAIS come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.203,"defence":-0.065,"effective_matches":13.4,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.018,"defence":0.122,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.6,"shots":13,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.357,"finishing_vs_xg":-1.05},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.6,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.349,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.61},"possession_gap":-2.9},"strength":0.118,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kalmar FF have scored 13 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-1.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"GAIS have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.61,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"155 yellow cards in this referee's last 40 games, where 130 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds.","evidence":{"matches":40,"yellows_per_match":3.88,"reds_per_match":0.1,"league_yellows_per_match":3.26,"league_reds_per_match":0.081,"yellow_ratio":1.19,"red_ratio":1.23},"strength":0.171,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 285 km for GAIS.","evidence":{"travel_km":285},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.3,"temperature_c":10,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1056256676150061},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Kalmar will boss this match because they create far superior openings almost weekly while GAIS get out-created in most of their recent games. Kalmar play much better football than their poor run suggests, having lost 4 of their last 6 despite making the better chances in most of those. They shoot plenty from poor positions, managing 18 on target from 85 shots in their last 6, yet their finishing must turn given the massive gap between their actual goals and the chances they build. GAIS arrive missing a big chunk of their goals, including a midfielder with 4 goals and another who created more than anyone else in the squad, leaving them short in the middle where the game is won.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6199,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":46510,"event_date":"2026-10-29T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1053,"home_team":"Kalmar FF","away_team_id":448,"away_team":"GAIS","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":38.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3888,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793281251,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c01a2a","away":"#e32718"},"venue":{"name":"Guldfageln Arena","city":"Kalmar","capacity":12500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}