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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hammarby IF have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.63,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IK Sirius are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"132 yellow cards in this referee's last 47 games, where 153 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":47,"yellows_per_match":2.81,"reds_per_match":0.128,"league_yellows_per_match":3.26,"league_reds_per_match":0.081,"yellow_ratio":0.86,"red_ratio":1.57},"strength":0.124,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 67 km for IK Sirius.","evidence":{"travel_km":67},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":1.5,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1056256676150061},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Hammarby will dictate this game and win, despite being oddly poor at home against league leaders in the title race. Sirius perform well on their travels, but three wins in six shows vulnerability. Hammarby are flying, winning five of six with four clean sheets in six. Their backline allowed two or fewer efforts on target in five of six matches. Having held most of the ball across eight straight games, Hammarby crafted superior chances in eight of nine. Sirius happily play without possession, making finer openings in two of four matches with less ball. Without injured midfielder Otso Liimatta's two goals until 10 November, Sirius lose threat, while Hammarby miss Amin Boudri's two assists following knee surgery. Clinical finishing decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6200,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":46507,"event_date":"2026-10-29T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":438,"home_team":"Hammarby IF","away_team_id":447,"away_team":"IK Sirius","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":62.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6256,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793281245,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ecd015","away":"#0d5f9e"},"venue":{"name":"3Arena","city":"Stockholm","capacity":32000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}